Cycles and trends in the procurement system: Anticipating changes in acquisition legislation, regulation and policy

In conclusion, let me raise the question of whether the Law Panel can impact these cycles or reverse these trends. If they are regarded as historical imperatives, the answer is clearly No. But we have been urged to be bold and to try to devise a new, simplified statute that will take us back to a better day. We are going to do that, without regard to the question whether Congress will accept the solution.

There probably has never been a better time for the Panel's report than the present; the window of opportunity is open. But what the Panel recommends is going to be awfully hard to sell, even in a window-of-opportunity year. If the predictions come true about the defense budget's going down to the level of the period when Eisenhower remained a Major for 14 years, maybe Congress will be receptive to anything that adds a little bit of value to the defense dollar. With this in mind, the Law Panel is likely to be very bold in its attempt to streamline the procurement system and reduce oversight. Hope springs eternal . . . .     

Landmarks in defense literature

Achtung-Panzer! By Major General Heinz Guderian, Translated by Christopher Duffy with Introduction and Notes by Paul Harris. (Arms & Armour Press £16.99. ISBN 1-85409-138-7, 220 pages)     

Opportunity-based age replacement: Exponentially distributed times between opportunities

This article gives a full analysis of a component-replacement model in which preventive replacements are only possible at maintenance opportunities. These opportunities arise according to a Poisson process, independently of failures of the component. Conditions for the existence of a unique average optimal control limit policy are established and an equation characterizing the optimal policy and minimal average costs is derived. An important result is that the optimal policy can be described as a so-called one-opportunity-look-ahead policy. Such policies play an important role as heuristics in more general models. It is shown that there is a correspondence with the well-known age-replacement model, which can be considered as an extreme case of the model. Finally, some numerical results are given.     

On excess-, current-, and total-life distributions of phase-type renewal processes

Consider a renewal process whose interrenewal-time distribution is phase type with representation (α, T). We show that the (time-dependent) excess-life distribution is phase type with representation (α′, T), where α′ is an appropriately modified initial probability vector. Using this result, we derive the (time-dependent) distributions for the current life and the total life of the phase-type renewal process. They in turn enable us to obtain the equilibrium distributions for the three random variables. These results simplify the computation of the respective distribution functions and consequently enhance the potential use of renewal theory in stochastic modeling—particularly in inventory, queueing, and reliability applications. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Probability inequalities via negative dependence for random variables conditioned on order statistics

Distributions are studied which arise by considering independent and identically distributed random variables conditioned on events involving order statistics. It is shown that these distributions are negatively dependent in a very strong sense. Furthermore, bounds are found on the distribution functions. The conditioning events considered occur naturally in reliability theory as the time to system failure for k-out-of-n systems. An application to systems formed with “second-hand” components is given.     

An algorithm for optimal shipments with given frequencies

This article deals with the problem of minimizing the transportation and inventory cost associated with the shipment of several products from a source to a destination, when a finite set of shipping frequencies is available. A mixed-integer programming model—shown to be NP-hard—is formulated for that problem. The computational complexity of some similar models applied to different problems is also investigated. In particular, whereas the capacitated plant location problem with operational cost in product form is NP-hard, the simple plant location problem with the same characteristics can be solved in polynomial time. A branch-and-bound algorithm is finally worked out, and some computational results are presented. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Tabular aids for fitting weibull moment estimates

Moment estimators for the parameters of the Weibull distribution are considered in the context of analysis of field data. The data available are aggregated, with individual failure times not recorded. In this case, the complexity of the likelihood function argues against the use of maximum-likelihood estimation, particularly for relatively large sets of data, and moment estimators are a reasonable alternative. In this article, we derive the asymptotic covariance matrix of the moment estimators, and provide listings for BASIC computer programs which generate tables useful for calculation of the estimates as well as for estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix using aggregated data.