A comparative study of demand forecasting techniques for military helicopter spare parts

This paper deals with techniques applicable to predicting spare parts demand for military helicopters. The military helicopter is a distinct weapons system, whose unique configuration may preclude the direct application of forecasting techniques which have proved successful for other weapon systems. Furthermore, although the military helicopter has become extremely important tactically in modern warfare, it has received scant attention in terms of research concerning its supply support. Specifically, this paper summarizes research done to measure and compare the forecasting accuracy of six mathematical models, as they were applied to three prominent military helicopters. In addition, the paper describes attempts that were made to define, where possible, the conditions under which a specific forecasting technique might be applicable. In general, it is shown that the most accurate set of helicopter spare parts demand forecasts are produced by a second order polynomial exponential smoothing model. This model is observed to have most accurately described the highly volatile, and upward-trended demand time series which were the subject of the study.     

The relationship between decision variables and penalty cost parameter in (Q,R) inventory models

This paper is concerned with the optimum decision variables found using order quantity, reorder point (Q, R) inventory models. It examines whether the optimum variables (Q* and R*) are necessarily monotonic functions of the backorder cost parameter (or equivalently of the performance objective). For a general class of models it is proved that R* must increase as the performance objective is raised, and an inequality condition is derived which governs how Q* will change. Probability distributions of lead time demand are cited or found for which Q* increases, Q* decreases, and Q* is independent of increases in performance objectives or backorder cost parameter.     

Optimal interdiction of a supply network

Under certain conditions, the re-supply capability of a combatant force may be limited by the characteristics of the transportation network over which supplies must flow. Interdiction by an opposing force may be used to reduce the capacity of that network. The effects of such efforts vary for differing missions and targets. With only a limited total budget available, the interdictor must decide which targets to hit, and with how much effort. An algorithm is presented for determining the optimum interdiction plan for minimizing network flow capacity when the minimum capacity on an arc is positive and the cost of interdiction is a linear function of arc capacity reduction.     

A solution for queues with instantaneous jockeying and other customer selection rules

This paper presents a general solution for the M/M/r queue with instantaneous jockeying and r > 1 servers. The solution is obtained in matrices in closed form without recourse to the generating function arguments usually used. The solution requires the inversion of two (Z^r?1) × (2^r?1) matrices. The method proposed is extended to allow different queue selection preferences of arriving customers, balking of arrivals, jockeying preference rules, and queue dependent selection along with jockeying. To illustrate the results, a problem previously published is studied to show how known results are obtained from the proposed general solution.     

Values for optimum reject allowances

Industrial situations exist where it is necessary to estimate the optimum number of parts to start through a manufacturing process in order to obtain a given number of completed good items. The solution to this problem is not straightforward when the expected number of rejects from the process is a random variable and when there are alternative penalties associated with producing too many or too few items. This paper discusses various aspects of this problem as well as some of the proposed solutions to it. In addition, tables of optimum reject allowances based on a comprehensive model are presented.