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241.
    
This study is concerned with a game model involving repeated play of a matrix game with unknown entries; it is a two-person, zero-sum, infinite game of perfect recall. The entries of the matrix ((pij)) are selected according to a joint probability distribution known by both players and this unknown matrix is played repeatedly. If the pure strategy pair (i, j) is employed on day k, k = 1, 2, …, the maximizing player receives a discounted income of βk - 1 Xij, where β is a constant, 0 ≤ β ? 1, and Xij assumes the value one with probability pij or the value zero with probability 1 - pij. After each trial, the players are informed of the triple (i, j, Xij) and retain this knowledge. The payoff to the maximizing player is the expected total discounted income. It is shown that a solution exists, the value being characterized as the unique solution of a functional equation and optimal strategies consisting of locally optimal play in an auxiliary matrix determined by the past history. A definition of an ?-learning strategy pair is formulated and a theorem obtained exhibiting ?-optimal strategies which are ?-learning. The asymptotic behavior of the value is obtained as the discount tends to one.  相似文献   
242.
    
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243.
针对现有无迹卡尔曼滤波在再入弹道处理中可能出现的异常观测、观测随机误差模型不准确以及动力学模型不合理等问题,在无迹卡尔曼滤波中引入自适应与抗差估计理论,研究适用于再入弹道处理的自适应抗差滤波方法。该方法可以自适应地估计测量噪声等价协方差阵和状态噪声等价协方差阵,并可实现异常值的分离和维纳模型方差的自适应调整。数值仿真结果表明:该方法计算简单,并能有效减弱测量误差和动力学模型误差对弹道处理精度的影响。  相似文献   
244.
With incomplete data the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the Weibull process can only be obtained by solving the likelihood equations iteratively. In this article we show that the solution of the likelihood equations may lie outside of the parameter space if none of the processes can be observed from time zero.  相似文献   
245.
The notions of minimax paths, trees, and cut sets are defined for undirected graphs; and relationships between these entities are established. Simple solution procedures based on these relationships are presented.  相似文献   
246.
The discrete evasion game with three-move lag, formulated over 30 years ago, was one of the earliest games with time-lag complications. This game remains unsolved even though it is well known that the game has a value. In this article we obtain an upper bound for the value by constructing a strategy which consists of 400 conditional probabilities for the minimizing player. This is believed to be the best upper bound known.  相似文献   
247.
Moment estimators for the parameters of the Weibull distribution are considered in the context of analysis of field data. The data available are aggregated, with individual failure times not recorded. In this case, the complexity of the likelihood function argues against the use of maximum-likelihood estimation, particularly for relatively large sets of data, and moment estimators are a reasonable alternative. In this article, we derive the asymptotic covariance matrix of the moment estimators, and provide listings for BASIC computer programs which generate tables useful for calculation of the estimates as well as for estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix using aggregated data.  相似文献   
248.
In this article we consider the unweighted m-center problem with rectilinear distance. We preent an O(nm–2 log n) algorithm for the m-center problem where m ≥ 4.  相似文献   
249.
    
We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading, single‐unit system using heterogeneous spares of varying quality. The system's failures are unannounced; therefore, it is inspected periodically to determine its status (functioning or failed). The system continues in operation until it is either preventively or correctively maintained. The available maintenance options include perfect repair, which restores the system to an as‐good‐as‐new condition, and replacement with a randomly selected unit from the supply of heterogeneous spares. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted maintenance costs over an infinite time horizon. We formulate the problem using a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) model in which the system's age is observable but its quality must be inferred. We show, under suitable conditions, the monotonicity of the optimal value function in the belief about the system quality and establish conditions under which finite preventive maintenance thresholds exist. A detailed computational study reveals that the optimal policy encourages exploration when the system's quality is uncertain; the policy is more exploitive when the quality is highly certain. The study also demonstrates that substantial cost savings are achieved by utilizing our MOMDP‐based method as compared to more naïve methods of accounting for heterogeneous spares.  相似文献   
250.
    
The issue of guns or butter is one of the most fundamental economic questions, yet there is no consensus on a theoretical framework for examining it. Over the last decade, a version of a simple Keynesian macroeconomic model has been applied a number of times to examining the link between defence spending and economic growth in a range of countries. There are reasons for doubting the soundness of this model as a basis for empirical work.  相似文献   
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