面向决策的一体化建模方法及其在兵力筹划中的应用

在对军事决策问题的主要特点进行分析的基础上,提出从军事概念模型到数学模型再到定性推理模型的一体化建模思想.以空军航空兵遂行直接航空火力支援任务为想定背景,根据EATI模板,利用基于UML的Rose工具依次对想定任务的实体、任务、交互等进行分析;对于兵力筹划中的结构化问题建立了机会约束多目标规划数学模型;对于非结构化问题则构造了推理机,推理机体现了定量与定性相结合的决策分析思想.最后,以一个实例验证文章思路的可行性.     

L波段掺铒光纤放大器增益钳制及提高特性研究

报道了一种新型980 nm激光二极管(LD)泵浦高增益的掺铒光纤放大器(EDFA).通过加入中心波长为1 550 nm光纤光栅(FBG)可以明显提高增益,并分析了增益钳制的原理.实验得到其增益比无FBG结构EDFA提高8 dB,并得到了小信号输入时增益25 dB的有效钳制.     

分布式电子干扰系统干扰效能分析与仿真

建立干扰条件下雷达探测威力模型,通过仿真分析了单干扰机和多干扰机条件下单部雷达探测威力范围.在此基础上,对干扰机连续布阵与间断布阵,在远、近的不同干扰距离上进行仿真,验证了实施空中分布式电子干扰能够形成干扰掩护通道的设想.     

新型多目标遗传算法及其在导弹射击效能优化中的应用

多目标规划是一类重要的优化模型,有着广泛的实际应用,但其求解至今仍是运筹学的一个难点.针对一般约束多目标优化问题,在设计了新的适应度函数和选择算子的基础上,提出一种新型多目标遗传算法.将其应用于导弹对集群目标射击效能优化问题,验证了算法的有效性.     

定向毫米波网络邻居发现协议

针对定向毫米波网络各节点间无波束方向先验信息导致邻居发现困难的问题,提出了一种基于盲交汇算法的邻居发现协议,推导了邻居发现过程中时隙长度、波束个数与邻居发现时间之间的理论关系。进一步,为了缩短邻居发现的时间,在盲交汇算法的邻居发现协议的基础上,提出了基于位置预测的邻居发现协议。仿真结果表明,基于盲交汇算法的邻居发现协议的最长邻居发现时间小于无协调的定向邻居发现协议,波束个数N接近2n(2n－1n,n>1,n∈Z)时,平均邻居发现时间低于无协调的定向邻居发现算法。此外,基于位置预测的邻居发现协议可以有效缩短邻居发现时间。     

考虑多重劣化故障的装备最优视情维修策略

针对装备维修工程实际中多重故障并发的问题,假设系统经历两个相互独立的劣化故障过程,设定相应的预防性维修阈值并定期对系统状态进行检测;基于Gamma过程建立了该系统的视情维修决策优化模型,给出了系统在预定维修策略下的长期运行费用率计算表达式,并以系统长期运行费用率最低为目标,对检测周期和两个维修阈值进行优化。通过算例分析了维修策略参数对于长期运行费用率及预防性维修概率的影响。计算结果表明:在给定模型参数下,存在一组最优维修策略参数(检测周期和维修阈值),能够使得系统长期运行费用率降至最低。     

Better is the Neighbor?

Abstract

This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), to investigate the convergence properties of the military expenditure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the period of 1990–2015. Compared to the traditional methods, SPSM considers fundamentally general spatial homogeneous and heterogeneous relationships with countries and examines the evolution of military expenditure. We find that four-fifths of NATO member countries have been convergent with the UK, but no country’s military expenditure is convergent with the US. This means that there is no significant linkage effect in the US for NATO military expenditure. While they are allies of the US, the majority of NATO member countries’ military expenditures are consistent with UK military expenditure. The main reasons are due to the geographical space layout and the international relationship convergence. The results indicate that more than four-fifths of NATO member countries have been coordinated with convergence theory and spillover effect.     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

一种针对HIGHT的改进差分故障的分析

为评估HIGHT轻型分组密码抗故障攻击能力,基于单字节故障模型,提出一种改进的HIGHT故障攻击方法．首先在HIGHT最后1轮注入单字节故障恢复SK124和SK1262个轮密钥,然后增加故障注入深度,在HIGHT倒数第5轮注入单字节故障恢复HIGHT另外10个轮密钥,从而恢复HIGHT的全部主密钥．实验结果表明：仅需22次故障注入即可恢复HIGHT全部128位主密钥,优于现有故障攻击方法所需的32次故障注入．     

基于雷达对抗侦察仿真的雷达生存能力评估系统研究

为合理有效地评估雷达在战场上的生存能力,选取截获概率作为定量评估指标,分析了侦察截获的判断条件,根据截获条件对雷达对抗侦察系统进行功能仿真,建立了基于HLA的评估系统．通过仿真得到了对应时间的截获概率,并以此作为评估雷达生存能力的定量指标．仿真结果表明,采用这种方法得到的截获概率合理,对提高雷达生存能力有一定参考意义．