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We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000 相似文献
254.
T identical exponential lifetime components out of which G are initially functioning (and B are not) are to be allocated to N subsystems, which are connected either in parallel or in series. Subsystem i, i = 1,…, N, functions when at least Ki of its components function and the whole system is maintained by a single repairman. Component repair times are identical independent exponentials and repaired components are as good as new. The problem of the determination of the assembly plan that will maximize the system reliability at any (arbitrary) time instant t is solved when the component failure rate is sufficiently small. For the parallel configuration, the optimal assembly plan allocates as many components as possible to the subsystem with the smallest Ki and allocates functioning components to subsystems in increasing order of the Ki's. For the series configuration, the optimal assembly plan allocates both the surplus and the functioning components equally to all subsystems whenever possible, and when not possible it favors subsystems in decreasing order of the Ki's. The solution is interpreted in the context of the optimal allocation of processors and an initial number of jobs in a problem of routing time consuming jobs to parallel multiprocessor queues. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 732–746, 2001 相似文献
255.
We solve the problem of optimal allocation of weapons to targets in the presence of layered regional defenses. The general solution technique is an integer program transformable to a minimum-cost network flow. This model assumes the defense has perfect weapons. Results of a small sample scenario are included. Additionally, a representative attrition algorithm is described and the two models combined to form a hybrid algorithm. The hybrid algorithm allows for less-than-perfect weapons while maintaining optimality. 相似文献
256.
The G/G/R machine repair problem with M operating machines, S warm standby spares, and R repairmen is studied as a diffusion process. The steady-state equations are formulated as diffusion equations subject to two reflecting barriers. The approximate diffusion parameters of the diffusion equations are obtained (1) under the assumption that the input characteristics of the problem are defined only by their first two moments rather than their probability distribution function, (2) under the assumption of heavy traffic approximation, that is, when queues of failed machines in the repair stage are almost always nonempty, and (3) using well-known asymptotic results from renewal theory. Expressions for the probability density functions of the number of failed machines in the system are obtained. A study of the derived approximate results, compared to some of the exact results, suggests that the diffusion approach provides a useful method for solving complex machine-repair problems. 相似文献
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In clinical circles, the concept of “moral injury” has rapidly gained traction. Yet, from a moral philosophical point of view the concept is less clear than is suggested. That is, in current conceptualizations of moral injury, trauma’s moral dimension seems to be understood in a rather mechanistic and individualized manner. This article makes a start in developing an adequately founded conceptualization of the role of morality in deployment-related distress. It does so by reviewing and synthesizing insights from different disciplines into morality and trauma. This discussion will lead to three positions: (1) values and norms are by definition characterized by conflict, (2) moral conflict may entail important social dimensions, and (3) moral conflict may lead to altered beliefs about previously held values. These insights provide important steps in further developing conceptions of the role of morality in deployment-related suffering. 相似文献
259.
A carrier battle group is operating in an area where it is subject to attack by enemy aircraft. It is anticipated that air raids will occur in large waves. The uncertain time between raids is available for the replenishment of supplies. We consider the problem of how best to schedule ammunition replenishment during this period. The theory of Gittins indices provides the technical background to the development of a range of models which yield a hierarchy of index-based heuristics for replenishment. One such heuristic is assessed computationally in a more realistic scenario than is explicitly allowed for by the models. 相似文献
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