对金门战役“三不打”的考证

自20世纪80年代起,有关金门战役中第三野战军副司令员粟裕曾有过"三不打"的指示,引起部分军史研究者和民间史学爱好者的关注。此后,几乎所有关于金门战役的著述都或多或少、或直接或间接地提到了所谓的"三不打"。本文用史料分析、逻辑分析相结合的方法,对此问题进行了考证。结论是,此说属于"孤证",虽然无法证实其不存在,但更缺乏支持其存在的权威史料。     

Service design at diagnostic service centers

We study a service design problem in diagnostic service centers, call centers that provide medical advice to patients over the phone about what the appropriate course of action is, based on the caller's symptoms. Due to the tension between increased diagnostic accuracy and the increase in waiting times more in‐depth service requires, managers face a difficult decision in determining the optimal service depth to guide the diagnostic process. The specific problem we consider models the situation when the capacity (staffing level) at the center is fixed, and when the callers have both congestion‐ and noncongestion‐related costs relating to their call. We develop a queueing model incorporating these features and find that the optimal service depth can take one of two different structures, depending on factors such as the nurses' skill level and the maximum potential demand. Sensitivity analyses of the two optimal structures show that they are quite different. In some situations, it may (or may not) be optimal for the manager to try to expand the demand at the center, and increasing skill level may (or may not) increase congestion. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

含灭火添加剂细水雾粒径分布规律

为了研究含灭火添加剂细水雾灭火机理,从添加剂对细水雾粒径分布的影响着手,利用全自动表面张力仪、实时喷雾激光粒度仪对含不同添加剂的细水雾粒径分布进行了研究。结果表明：磷酸二氢铵和尿素使水的表面张力略有增加,氟表面活性剂（Fc-134）和碳氢表面活性剂（APG）以及由4种添加剂组成的复合添加剂使水的表面张力大幅降低;磷酸二氢铵使粒径为2.09～26.23μm的雾滴数略有减少,粒径为31.06～462.33μm的雾滴数略有增加;氟表面活性剂（Fc-134）使粒径为8.05～22.16μm的雾滴数增加,粒径为22.17～278.64μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为278.65～1075.09μm的雾滴完全消失;碳氢表面活性剂（APG）使粒径为2.09～31.06μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为36.77～141.86μm的雾滴数增加;而复合添加剂使粒径为2.09～31.06μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为36.77～198.82μm的雾滴数增加。     

轮状病毒荧光定量PCR标准品的构建

采用MA104细胞系培养和T载体克隆技术,在轮状病毒结构蛋白VP4基因序列中设计合成引物,经过PCR扩增后将特异性产物与pMD-19-T载体连接,对获得的轮状病毒重组质粒标准品进行酶切鉴定和测序分析。利用常规PCR和荧光定量PCR方法对获得的重组质粒标准品进行特异性和灵敏度指标的检验。结果表明,将构建的重组质粒作为标准品制备标准曲线具有较高的扩增效率和良好的线性关系(斜率为-4.015,R2=0.991);荧光定量PCR熔解曲线分析表明,85.8℃的PCR产物是轮状病毒VP4基因序列的特异性产物,该标准品具有轮状病毒特异性;同时,所制备的重组质粒标准品在荧光定量PCR检测中具有较大的线性范围(5×101~5×1010拷贝/μL),每个梯度PCR反应最低可以检测到50拷贝的重组质粒,因而采用该标准品进行荧光定量PCR分析具有较高的检测灵敏度;此外,该重组质粒标准品具有较高的稳定性和重复性,3次独立实验的变异因数Cv<1.5%。构建的重组质粒标准品可以用做环境水体中轮状病毒的荧光定量PCR标准品。     

基于灰色系统理论的军队油料节约人员360度绩效评估

基于360度绩效评估理论,从德、能、勤、绩4个方面构建了包含4个1级指标和16个2级指标的军队油料节约人员360度绩效评估指标体系。利用层次分析法确定了各评估指标的权重,运用灰色系统理论的原理和方法,构建了多层次灰色评估模型,并对某油料节约小组5位油料节约人员进行了360度绩效评估。案例应用表明,此方法具有系统综合各层评估者提供的"贫信息"的优点,不仅能得出被评估者的灰类及优劣顺序,而且得到了各指标所属灰类和具体的灰色评价权值,使360度绩效较好地实现了绩效反馈的目的。该研究为军队油料节约人员绩效管理工作提供了新的思路和方法。     

基于神经网络集成方法预测膜蛋白类型

由Chou等人提出的预测膜蛋白分类的机器学习算法在近年来不断改进,使得预测膜蛋白类型的准确率越来越高。但是由于膜蛋白类分布不均衡而导致少数类的预测准确率非常低,使用神经网络集成方法能解决此问题。该方法中Bagging算法通过对多数类欠采样和少数类过采样来解决膜蛋白训练数据集不均衡问题。此外,用神经网络集成方法对已训练数据集和独立数据集进行分类测试,得出神经网络集成方法预测效果优于单个最好神经网络。该方法为解决蛋白质分类预测问题提供了一种新的策略,特别是训练数据集不均衡时,该方法的优势更加明显。     

机房漏水检测与精确定位装置研究

机房漏水是危及精密信息设备长期稳定可靠运行的重大安全隐患。为了解决传统定位装置难以实现漏水点精确定位的问题,从传感电缆的检漏原理出发,利用分压补偿原理,通过STEP7软件编程,设计了一个结合自检、漏水检测和漏水定位3种功能的机房漏水检测与定位装置。在此基础上搭建了实验系统,经测试实验,结果表明短距离定位精度可以达到1．70％,从而证实了该装置检测的有效性和定位的精确性。     

顶部开口条件下油罐油气爆炸数值模拟

根据油罐油气爆炸特性,基于RNG k-ε湍流模型、Finate-Rate/Eddy-Dissipation化学反应模型和相应的控制方程,采用SIMPLE算法对顶部开口条件下油气爆炸发生与发展过程进行了数值模拟。基于数值模拟结果分析了顶部开口条件下油罐油气爆炸罐外超压和火焰特征,与实验结果吻合良好,该模型可以用来预测顶部开口条件下油罐油气爆炸强度。     

Expansion planning for waste‐to‐energy systems using waste forecast prediction sets

We consider an expansion planning problem for Waste‐to‐Energy (WtE) systems facing uncertainty in future waste supplies. The WtE expansion plans are regarded as strategic, long term decisions, while the waste distribution and treatment are medium to short term operational decisions which can adapt to the actual waste collected. We propose a prediction set uncertainty model which integrates a set of waste generation forecasts and is constructed based on user‐specified levels of forecasting errors. Next, we use the prediction sets for WtE expansion scenario analysis. More specifically, for a given WtE expansion plan, the guaranteed net present value (NPV) is evaluated by computing an extreme value forecast trajectory of future waste generation from the prediction set that minimizes the maximum NPV of the WtE project. This problem is essentially a multiple stage min‐max dynamic optimization problem. By exploiting the structure of the WtE problem, we show this is equivalent to a simpler min‐max optimization problem, which can be further transformed into a single mixed‐integer linear program. Furthermore, we extend the model to optimize the guaranteed NPV by searching over the set of all feasible expansion scenarios, and show that this can be solved by an exact cutting plane approach. We also propose a heuristic based on a constant proportion distribution rule for the WtE expansion optimization model, which reduces the problem into a moderate size mixed‐integer program. Finally, our computational studies demonstrate that our proposed expansion model solutions are very stable and competitive in performance compared to scenario tree approaches. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 47–70, 2016     

Terminal allocation problem in a transshipment hub considering bunker consumption

This article investigates the method of allocating arriving vessels to the terminals in transshipment hubs. The terminal allocation decision faced by a shipping alliance has the influence on the scheduled arrival time of vessels and further affects the bunker consumption cost for the vessels. A model is formulated to minimize the bunker consumption cost as well as the transportation cost of inter‐terminal transshipment flows/movements. The capacity limitation of the port resources such as quay cranes (QCs) and berths is taken into account. Besides the terminal allocation, the QC assignment decision is also incorporated in the proposed model. A local branching based method and a particle swarm optimization based method are developed to solve the model in large‐scale problem instances. Numerical experiments are also conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, which can save around 14% of the cost when compared with the “First Come First Served” decision rule. Moreover, the proposed solution methods not only solve the proposed model within a reasonable computation time, but also obtain near‐optimal results with about 0.1～0.7% relative gap. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 529–548, 2016