Homeland Security and Intelligence: Can Oil Mix with Water in an Open Society?

The newest US Cabinet department is Homeland Security (DHS). One of the most controversial aspects in the process of developing this entity is the role of intelligence in providing information on the increasing terrorist threat. This article examines the intelligence challenges for homeland security. In doing so, it explores the problems of merging disparate cultures - law enforcement vs intelligence, civil entities vs military, federal vs state and local jurisdictions, and domestic focus vs international perspective. Given the nature of the globalized, asymmetric threat, the need for more and better intelligence sharing is obvious. Terrorists and other criminals do not respect international boundaries; in fact, they exploit them in an effort to prevent effective and timely countermeasures. This demands that robust multinational collaboration and interagency coordination be practiced.     

Rising bipolarity in the South China Sea: the American rebalance to Asia and China's expansion

This article synthesizes three elements of power and balancing in the South China Sea (SCS): analytical perspectives on China's behaviour and intentions, the American rebalance to Asia and the dispositions of American allies and partners. Based on extensive interviews and theoretical analysis, it concludes that ‘soft balancing’ backed by American military power provides the optimum chance for resolving the growing dispute. Short to medium-term weakness of Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam, as well as Japan, means the United States must provide much of the military power while working to build their forces. The most promising alternative is multilateral diplomacy through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ Regional Forum, a vehicle for negotiating a Code of Conduct and implementation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. If China remains motivated mainly by defense of realist interests, the costs imposed against expansion will eventually cause recalculation of Beijing's strategy, and soft balancing by the United States and its partners has a chance of working. The constructivist perspective, stressing self-conceptualization of Chinese strategic culture, supports Chinese confidence that patience will eventually bring dominance. If China tries offensively to change the status quo, soft balancing is less likely to influence Beijing. President Xi Jin Ping appears to be offensively asserting power, seeking regional dominance before he is due to step down in 2023. This supports the finding of enhanced risks of unintended escalation in the SCS and the East China Sea.     

On estimating survival for reliability models based on age-related stochastic comparisons

A new class of nonparametric reliability models is introduced and studied. A distribution is said to be better at age s than at age t (sBt) if the residual lifetime at age s is stochastically greater than or equal to the residual lifetime at age t. Applications to various forms of replacement policies, including the cannibalization of failed systems, are noted. For fixed s < t, the problem of estimating a survival curve assumed to belong to the sBt class is addressed using recursive methods. An sBt estimator is derived in closed form, and its uniform strong consistency at an optimal rate of convergence is demonstrated. A simulation study strongly supports the claim that the sBt estimator tends to outperform the empirical survivor function in small- and moderate-size samples. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Location-allocation for distribution to a uniform demand with transshipments

This article analyzes the location-allocation problem for distribution from a single fixed origin via transshipment terminals to a continuous uniformly distributed demand. Distribution through terminals concentrates flows on the origin-to-terminal links and transportation economies of scale encourage the use of larger vehicles. Analytical expressions are derived for the optimal terminal locations, the optimal allocation of destinations to terminals, and the optimal transportation cost. Continuous analytic models assume either an allocation, by partitioning the service region into sectors, or terminal locations. This is unlikely to produce an optimal distribution system. The optimal cost is compared to the cost for suboptimal location-allocation combinations. Results indicate that the location decision is not too important if destinations are allocated optimally and that allocation to the nearest terminal may be poor, even with optimal locations. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Algorithms for the design of finite-capacity service units

Finite-capacity queues arise naturally in many practical situations, notably in communications and manufacturing engineering. In this article, the matrix formalism of probability distributions of phase type is used to develop fast algorithms to compute various steady-state distributions for the finite-capacity PH/PH/1 queue. This algorithm is an important ingredient in solving nontraditional but significant design problems. Some of these are described as illustrative examples.     

A Question of ‘Government’ Control: Afghanistan DDR Programs Since 2001

Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA), the United States, the United Nations, and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have funded and led three different Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs. Despite a significant investment in time and treasure, all of them have failed to significantly reduce the number of insurgents or arbaki (militia). This article explores why these programs failed despite incorporating ideas from the prominent DDR schools of thought. Utilizing Stathis Kalyvas’ theory of The Logic of Violence in Civil War as a lens, this article argues that GIRoA and ISAF did not have sufficient control of territory to entice insurgents or arbaki to reconcile and/or reintegrate with the government. Further, in areas GIRoA nominally controlled in northern and western Afghanistan, regional powerbrokers who controlled these areas balked at these programs.     

Multilateral defense cooperation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region: Tentative steps toward a regional NATO?

Some U.S. military leaders have asserted that the United States, Japan, Australia, and India and the Republic of Korea are developing multilateral defense cooperation to deter aggression and uphold norms much like North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has in Europe. Frequent military exercises and China’s threats to freedom of navigation (FoN) and North Korea’s nuclear missiles comprise the motive force for such cooperation. However, cooperation thus far has been trilateral and minimal, given divergent national interests and dispersed geopolitical locations. Cooperation among Japan, Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States is increasing given the threat, but ROK’s public opinion is divided about Japan. Australia, Japan, and India have increased cooperation with the United States but are reluctant to conduct FoN operations with the United States to challenge China’s expansionism in the South China Sea. If China becomes more aggressive and blocks FoN or seizes territory, development toward an Asian NATO is possible.     

Optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans for log‐location‐scale distributions

This article presents new tools and methods for finding optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans. First, we present an approach to calculate the large‐sample approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a quantile of the failure time distribution at use conditions from a step‐stress accelerated life test. The approach allows for multistep stress changes and censoring for general log‐location‐scale distributions based on a cumulative exposure model. As an application of this approach, the optimum variance is studied as a function of shape parameter for both Weibull and lognormal distributions. Graphical comparisons among test plans using step‐up, step‐down, and constant‐stress patterns are also presented. The results show that depending on the values of the model parameters and quantile of interest, each of the three test plans can be preferable in terms of optimum variance. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008