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Michael J. Deane Lawrence James Edward M. Spiers Philip Gummett Brian Holden Reid 《Defense & Security Analysis》1989,5(3):275-284
Red Banner: the Soviet Military System in Peace and War. By Christopher Donnelly. Jane's Information Group, Coulsdon, UK (1988), 288 pp., £35.00
Images of T. E. Lawrence. By S. E. Tabachnick and C. Matheson. Jonathan Cape, London (1988); The Letters of T. E. Lawrence. Edited by Malcolm Brown. Dent, London (1988); T. E. Lawrence. By J. Wilson. National Portrait Gallery Publications, London (1988); Lawrence and the Arab Revolts. By D. Nicolle. Osprey, London (1989)
Liddell Hart and the Weight of History. By John Mearsheimer. Brassey's, London (1989), £15.95
Science and Mythology in the Making of Defence Policy. Edited by Margaret Blunden and Owen Greene. Brassey's, London (1989), £27.50/$44.00
Warfare in the Twentieth Century. Edited by Colin McInnes and G. D. Sheffield. Unwin Hyman, London (1988), 239 pp., £25.00 相似文献
Images of T. E. Lawrence. By S. E. Tabachnick and C. Matheson. Jonathan Cape, London (1988); The Letters of T. E. Lawrence. Edited by Malcolm Brown. Dent, London (1988); T. E. Lawrence. By J. Wilson. National Portrait Gallery Publications, London (1988); Lawrence and the Arab Revolts. By D. Nicolle. Osprey, London (1989)
Liddell Hart and the Weight of History. By John Mearsheimer. Brassey's, London (1989), £15.95
Science and Mythology in the Making of Defence Policy. Edited by Margaret Blunden and Owen Greene. Brassey's, London (1989), £27.50/$44.00
Warfare in the Twentieth Century. Edited by Colin McInnes and G. D. Sheffield. Unwin Hyman, London (1988), 239 pp., £25.00 相似文献
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Lawrence James 《Defense & Security Analysis》1985,1(2):143-144
The Face of Battle: by John Keegan. Jonathan Cape, London, 1976; Viking Press, New York, 1976; Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1978, 1983, 1984. 相似文献
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A probabilistic model is developed that applies to military bombardment, advertising for a mass audience, and other kinds of situations in which striking a target means that less of it is left to strike. The model provides the basis for decision analysis based on marginal gain in such circumstances. Heterogneous resources are considered as well as composite targets. All expenditures are quantized. The model has been developed as part of a computer-based military expert system, to replace a large complex set of expert opinions. In that application it sharply improves efficiency, yet conforms to major tenets of tactical doctrine. 相似文献
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Let {Xi} be independent HNBUE (Harmonic New Better Than Used in Expectation) random variables and let {Yi} be independent exponential random variables such that E{Xi}=E{Yi} It is shown that \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ E\left[{u\left({\mathop {\min \,X_i}\limits_{l \le i \le n}} \right)} \right] \ge E\left[{u\left({\mathop {\min \,Y_i}\limits_{l \le i \le n}} \right)} \right] $\end{document} for all increasing and concave u. This generalizes a result of Kubat. When comparing two series systems with components of equal cost, one with lifetimes {Xi} and the other with lifetimes {Yi}, it is shown that a risk-averse decision-maker will prefer the HNBUE system. Similar results are obtained for parallel systems. 相似文献
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This paper describes a method of solving aircraft service life problems. The particular application concerns aircraft in the Naval Advanced Jet Training Command. The method of solution is comparative present value analysis of alternative replacement policies. The likely risks of estimation errors are reflected in the comparisons of present values. Differences are noted in the benefits associated with each policy, but external to Naval Aviation. Since the values of these benefits can be determined only at a higher level of decision-making, the result of the study is not a conclusive selection among policies, but a schedule of present values on the basis of which, together with values of the external benefits, a decision can be reached. This paper discusses replacement policies for aircraft used in the Naval Advanced Jet Pilot Training mission. Taking engineering technology and the training syllabus as given, four feasible plans for introducing replacement aircraft into service are evaluated in terms of the present values of differential costs associated with the plans and in terms of the likely errors in cost estimates used in calculation of the present values. The trade-off between present value of costs and planning flexibility is emphasized in choosing a recommended time pattern of aircraft replacement. The specific aircraft mixes considered are the TF–9J/TAF–9J and the TA–4F/A–4B. The first is the currently employed mix; the second is the proposed replacement. The problem is to select an optimal time-pattern of replacement of F–9's by A–4's, given technological differences favoring the A–4 and increasing costs of maintaining squadrons of F–9's. Replacements by aircraft types other than the A–4 are considered impractical. Four feasible plans for introducing A–4's through a 5-year period are evaluated in terms of current best estimates of the related costs of the plans and in terms of the flexibility of modifying each plan given future better information concerning the relevant costs. The method of analysis is comparative present value of expected costs. 相似文献
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In this article we consider models of systems whose components have dependent life lengths with specific multivariate distributions. Upon failure, components are repaired. Two types of repair are distinguished. After perfect repair, a unit has the same life distribution as a new item. After imperfect repair, a unit has the life distribution of an item which is of the same age but has never failed. We study a model in which the mechanism for determining the nature of the repair is age dependent. 相似文献