An Analysis of the Threat of Malicious Chemical Use by Nonstate Actors: Questioning the State-based Approach to Chemical Nonproliferation

ABSTRACT

This study seeks to evaluate the threat of malicious chemical use by non-state actors. It finds that non-state actors have primarily turned to ready-to-use crude chemical weapons (CW) instead of traditional CW agents. Interestingly, the worst crude CW attacks have been more destructive than those employing traditional CW. Scenarios for catastrophic consequences exist, but chemical attacks have typically been used to accomplish tactical goals, which leverage psychological and economic impacts. Therefore, successful efforts to counter CW proliferation by non-state actors must be substantially different from those targeting states.     

Reflections on Transparency and Monitoring under the 1993 United States-Russian Federation Highly Enriched Uranium Purchase Agreement

ABSTRACT

The 1993 Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Purchase Agreement between the United States and Russian Federation is often described as one of the world's most successful nuclear nonproliferation programs. In 2013, the two states achieved the agreement's major goals of downblending 500 metric tons of Russian weapon-origin HEU to low enriched uranium (LEU) and delivering all resultant LEU to the United States. At one time, the LEU delivered under the agreement generated nearly 10 percent of all electricity in the United States. The agreement achieved its nonproliferation goals through a unique government/industry partnership. Commercial executive agents contracted for the annual sale and delivery of downblended LEU, while the US and Russian governments exercised reciprocal transparency monitoring measures to demonstrate that all LEU delivered under the agreement was derived from Russian weapons-origin HEU, and that the same LEU was used for exclusively peaceful purposes in the United States. The commercial development, negotiations, and implementation of the agreement have been well documented. This article describes the scope of US transparency monitoring activities in Russian HEU processing facilities, as well as Russian monitoring in the United States. In addition, it discusses the results of twenty years of reciprocal transparency monitoring and data analysis, and outlines lessons learned that are potentially applicable to future transparency monitoring and verification regimes and similar cooperative efforts.     

Marketing Systems and Insurgency in Western Guatemala

Guatemala is a nation with a history of severe political and socioeconomic problems. These crises contributed to the growth and durability of insurgent movements, which from 1961 to 1996 were endemic in certain regions of the nation, particularly western Guatemala. This paper examines insurgent activity in the four marketing subsystems described by Smith1 ?1. Smith, ‘Marketing Systems’, pp. 117–46. found in western Guatemala: dendritic, primate, top-heavy and interlocking. Peasants are said to be severely disadvantaged in the dendritic marketing systems, disadvantaged in primate markets, and relatively capable of making a decent living in top-heavy and interlocking systems. If this is so, support for system changing revolutionary movements should predictably be highest in dendritic systems, significant in primate systems, and only marginal in top-heavy and interlocking systems. An examination of the political-military situation in western Guatemala from 1976 to 1996 supports this thesis.     

Like Cassandra, I Speak the Truth: US Army Psychological Operations in Latin America, 1987-89

This article examines US Army psychological operations (PsyOp) as practiced during the waning years of the Cold War in Latin America. Certain themes, especially legitimacy, in-group/out-group, and safety/fear are demonstrated to be recurrent in regional PsyOp campaigns, largely because they seem to activate rich inference systems in the human brain. Yet anthropologists and other scholars of Latin America have paid little attention to military PsyOp. Despite our natural susceptibilities, we can best evaluate propaganda (and other claims to knowledge) by following the advice of Karl Popper: competing theories, including politically loaded ones, should always be explanatory and subject to criticism.     

The reporting time problem: Integration of intelligence with verification

This article is a theoretic study of the following problem in verification: Mobile units under control of an agent, whom we call the HIDER, travel on a known transportation network and must at the conclusion of their itinerary report locations at fixed time intervals to a monitoring authority, whom we call the SEEKER. The purpose of this reporting requirement is to verify that illegal units do not infiltrate the network from sources under the control of the HIDER. We assume that the SEEKER has an independent intelligence-gathering capability which gives sightings of both legal and illegal units. The purpose of this article is to quantify the advantage of frequent over infrequent reporting. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal number of minimal repairs before replacement of a system subject to shocks

A system is subject to shocks that arrive according to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As shocks occur a system has two types of failures. Type 1 failure (minor failure) is removed by a minimal repair, whereas type 2 failure (catastrophic failure) is removed by replacement. The probability of a type 2 failure is permitted to depend on the number of shocks since the last replacement. A system is replaced at the times of type 2 failure or at the nth type 1 failure, whichever comes first. The optimal policy is to select n* to minimize the expected cost per unit time for an infinite time span. A numerical example is given to illustrate the method. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Intellectual spring cleaning: it’s time for a military “Do Not Read” list; and some sources that should be on that list

Military reading lists, intended to promote professional reading and in turn enhance education and develop critical thinking skills and sound judgement, recommend key texts to military personnel. This is a noble intent but the lists themselves, while generally good, are not flawless. Critiques of military reading lists often focus on what sources they are missing. This article offers its own critique but from a different perspective. It does so by analysing why some sources, which have become outdated, are based on faulty or incomplete research, have been thoroughly disproven, or some combination of the above, nevertheless linger on military reading lists. It then offers a short list of such sources, which it recommends be either removed from existing reading lists or accompanied by other sources that place the original source in appropriate historical context. Where applicable, it also recommends alternative sources that provide insights into the same subject matter. In so doing, this article is intended generate debate and to assist militaries to achieve a better balance between evaluation, induction and retention of valid knowledge on one hand, and rejection of outdated or flawed knowledge on the other.     

Investment in production resource flexibility: An empirical investigation of methods for planning under uncertainty

We examine several methods for evaluating resource acquisition decisions under uncertainty. Traditional methods may underestimate equipment benefit when part of this benefit comes from decision flexibility. We develop a new, practical method for resource planning under uncertainty, and show that this approach is more accurate than several commonly used methods. We successfully applied our approach to an investment problem faced by a major firm in the aviation information industry. Our recommendations were accepted and resulted in estimated annual savings in excess of $1 million (US). © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003