纯方位目标运动状态的极大似然估计及迭代算法

针对非线性最小二乘法在国内目标运动分析中应用较少的现状,首先在二维平面内推导出关于纯方位目标运动状态的极大似然估计的计算公式并给出了基于高斯-牛顿迭代算法的计算过程及步骤,随后分析了极大似然估计的性能和迭代算法的收敛性.仿真计算的结果表明:当迭代初值与目标真实状态充分接近时,用所推导出的计算公式能够快速稳定地得到关于目标运动状态的极大似然估计,迭代算法形式简洁,计算量小.该研究成果可应用于舰艇作战系统目标被动跟踪定位软件.     

基于系统贴近度的装备中修费用估算模型

装备维修费用是装备中修过程最直接、最敏感的决策因素,为科学合理地估算修理机构装备中修费用,通过对装备中修范围和中修费用结构的分析,运用模糊数学中的隶属度和贴近度相关理论以及平滑指数法建模思路,构建了基于系统贴近度的装备中修费用估算模型,并通过对某新入役装备进行估算分析,验证了该模型的科学性和结果的可靠性.     

包家山特长公路隧道斜竖井排烟模式实验研究

包家山隧道为分离式长11.2 km特长公路隧道,通风排烟的好坏与否,直接关系到隧道的安全运行,合理的通风排烟方案能有效控制烟流的温度及其蔓延速度和方向,为火灾时人员、车辆安全疏散和火灾扑救提供极大便利,同时可以大大降低隧道结构高温损伤.研究包家山隧道斜竖井模式下的火灾通风排烟控制,给出不同区段火灾工况下对烟气控制效果最佳的方案,对隧道日常运营和火灾时的救援具有重要意义.     

基于FrFT的跳频通信LFM干扰抑制算法

为解决跳频通信过程中LFM干扰信号抑制问题,提出一种基于Fr FT的LFM干扰抑制算法,利用Fr FT时频面坐标轴旋转性质,通过计算信号的不同阶次Fr FT并搜索其峰值,确定信号最优Fr FT阶次,完成对LFM干扰信号的判别,进一步采用频域陷波实现对LFM干扰信号的抑制。仿真结果表明,该算法能有效抑制跳频信号中的LFM干扰信号,提高信号的最小均方误差。     

Measuring the Impact of Military Spending: How Far Does a DSGE Model Deviate from Reality?

Dunne, Smith, and Willenbockel (2005) argue that the mainstream growth literature has not found military spending to be a significant determinant of economic growth, yet much of the defense economics literature has noted significant effects. This paper revisits this issue by using a DSGE-VAR approach, combining both theoretical and empirical methods. We present that the DSGE approach (estimated with the Bayesian technique) and the Bayesian VAR with the Minnesota Prior both lead to worse in-sample fit than our proposed DSGE-VAR framework. The DSGE-VAR approach reveals that a positive military spending shock boosts the U.S. economy, increasing per capita real GDP growth, consumption, inflation and interest rate. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. Future investigations such as exploring an optimal military spending policy could adopt the approach in this paper to determine the best model – empirical, theoretical, or a combination of the two.     

Comparison of rank aggregation methods based on inherent ability

Ranking is a common task for selecting and evaluating alternatives. In the past few decades, combining rankings results from various sources into a consensus ranking has become an increasingly active research topic. In this study, we focus on the evaluation of rank aggregation methods. We first develop an experimental data generation method, which can provide ground truth ranking for alternatives based on their “inherent ability.” This experimental data generation method can generate the required individual synthetic rankings with adjustable accuracy and length. We propose characterizing the effectiveness of rank aggregation methods by calculating the Kendall tau distance between the aggregated ranking and the ground truth ranking. We then compare four classical rank aggregation methods and present some useful findings on the relative performances of the four methods. The results reveal that both the accuracy and length of individual rankings have a remarkable effect on the comparison results between rank aggregation methods. Our methods and results may be helpful to both researchers and decision‐makers.     

Insensitive energetic microspheres DAAF/RDX fabricated by facile molecular self-assembly

Insensitive energetic materials are promising in the defense weapons field. However, energetic materials still suffer from great challenges and the concern about their safety limits their utilization. In this work, insensitive energetic explosive 3,3′-diamino-4,4′-azoxyfurazan/hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (DAAF/RDX) microspheres were fabricated by self-assembly method. Rod-like DAAF/RDX was prepared by mechanical ball milling for comparison. DAAF/RDX composites with different mass ratios (90:10, 80:20, and 70:30) were obtained. The morphologies and structures of as-obtained DAAF/RDX composites were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD) and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). The results showed that DAAF/RDX microspheres exhibited regular shaped microspheres with sizes from 0.5 to 1.2 μm. There was no crystal transition during the modification process. The thermal properties of as-obtained materials were then evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and materials studio software. DAAF/RDX microspheres showed an advanced decomposition peak temperature compared with rod-like DAAF/RDX. The binding energy and peak temperature values at zero β_i (T_P0) of DAAF/RDX (90:10) increased by 36.77 kJ/mol, 1.6 °C, and 58.11 kJ/mol, 12.3 °C compared to DAAF/RDX (80:20) and DAAF/RDX (70:30), indicating the better thermal stability of DAAF/RDX (90:10). The characteristic drop height (H₅₀) of DAAF/RDX (higher than 100 cm) composites was higher than that of raw RDX (25 cm), suggesting significant improvements in mechanical safety. The preparation of DAAF/RDX microspheres is promising for the desensitization of RDX and useful for the formation of other materials and future wide applications.     

Preparation and characterization of HMX/EVA/hBNNSs micro-composites with improved thermal stability and reduced sensitivity

Hexagonal boron nitride nanosheets(HBNNSs)have huge potential in the field of coating materials owing to their remarkable chemical stability,mechanical strength and thermal conductivity.Thin-layer hBNNSs were obtained by a liquid-phase exfoliation of h-BN powders and incorporated into EVA coatings for improving the safety performance of 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane(HMX).HBNNSs and ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer(EVA)were introduced to HMX by a solvent-slurry process.For com-parison,the HMX/EVA and HMX/EVA/graphene(HMX/EVA/G)composites were also prepared by a similar process.The morphology,crystal form,surface element distribution,thermal decomposition property and impact sensitivity of HMX/EVA/hBNNSs composites were contrastively investigated.Results showed that as prepared HMX/EVA/hBNNSs composites were well coated with hBNNSs and EVA,and exhibited better thermal stability and lower impact sensitivity than that of HMX/EVA and HMX/EVA/G composites,suggesting superior performance of desensitization of hBNNSs in explosives.     

An experiment evaluating how the tiny mass eccentricities in spin-stabilized projectiles affect the position of impact points

This study investigates and quantifies some possible sources affecting the position of impact points of small caliber spin-stabilized projectiles (such as 12.7 mm bullets). A comparative experiment utilizing the control variable method was designed to figure out the influence of tiny eccentric centroids on the projectiles. The study critically analyzes data obtained from characteristic parameter measurements and precision trials. It also combines Sobol's algorithm with an artificial intelligence algorithm—Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)—in order to conduct global sensitivity analysis and determine which parameters were most influential. The results indicate that the impact points of projectiles with an entry angle of 0° deflected to the left to that of projectiles with an entry angle of 90°. The difference of the mean coordinates of impact points was about 12.61 cm at a target range of 200 m. Variance analysis indicated that the entry angle — i.e. the initial position of mass eccentricity — had a notable influence. After global sensitivity analysis, the significance of the effect of mass eccentricity was confirmed again and the most influential factors were determined to be the axial moment and transverse moment of inertia (Izz Iyy), the mass of a projectile (m), the distance between nose and center of mass along the symmetry axis for a projectile (Lm), and the eccentric distance of the centroid (Lr). The results imply that the control scheme by means of modifying mass center (moving mass or mass eccentricity) is promising for designing small-caliber spin-stabilized projectiles.     

Survivability assessment of spacecraft impacted by orbit debris

To help optimize the spacecraft design and reduce the risk of spacecraft mission failure, a new approach to assess the survivability of spacecraft in orbit is presented here, including the following three steps:1) Sensitivity Analysis of spacecraft. A new sensitivity analysis method, a ray method based on virtual outer wall, is presented here. Using rays to simulate the debris cloud can effectively address the component shadowing issues. 2) Component Vulnerability analysis of spacecraft. A function"Component functional reduction degree — Component physical damage degree"is provided here to clearly describe the component functional reduction. 3) System-level Survivability Assessment of spacecraft. A new method based on expert knowledge reasoning, instead of traditional artificial failure tree method, is presented here to greatly improve the efficiency and accuracy of calculation.