Measuring the Impact of Military Spending: How Far Does a DSGE Model Deviate from Reality?

Dunne, Smith, and Willenbockel (2005) argue that the mainstream growth literature has not found military spending to be a significant determinant of economic growth, yet much of the defense economics literature has noted significant effects. This paper revisits this issue by using a DSGE-VAR approach, combining both theoretical and empirical methods. We present that the DSGE approach (estimated with the Bayesian technique) and the Bayesian VAR with the Minnesota Prior both lead to worse in-sample fit than our proposed DSGE-VAR framework. The DSGE-VAR approach reveals that a positive military spending shock boosts the U.S. economy, increasing per capita real GDP growth, consumption, inflation and interest rate. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. Future investigations such as exploring an optimal military spending policy could adopt the approach in this paper to determine the best model – empirical, theoretical, or a combination of the two.     

Comparison of rank aggregation methods based on inherent ability

Ranking is a common task for selecting and evaluating alternatives. In the past few decades, combining rankings results from various sources into a consensus ranking has become an increasingly active research topic. In this study, we focus on the evaluation of rank aggregation methods. We first develop an experimental data generation method, which can provide ground truth ranking for alternatives based on their “inherent ability.” This experimental data generation method can generate the required individual synthetic rankings with adjustable accuracy and length. We propose characterizing the effectiveness of rank aggregation methods by calculating the Kendall tau distance between the aggregated ranking and the ground truth ranking. We then compare four classical rank aggregation methods and present some useful findings on the relative performances of the four methods. The results reveal that both the accuracy and length of individual rankings have a remarkable effect on the comparison results between rank aggregation methods. Our methods and results may be helpful to both researchers and decision‐makers.     

大型模拟对抗演习回放系统设计

针对大型模拟对抗演习的实际需要,提出了大型模拟对抗演习辅助讲评系统,对其子系统回放系统进行了重点设计。在分析系统功能的基础上,阐述了系统数据流程和可视化表现模式,论述了系统实现的关键技术,最终实现了回放系统。该系统通过对大型模拟对抗演习过程中产生的大量历史数据进行回放或展示,能够在演习结束或者阶段结束后辅助导演部或指挥员对演习过程作出全面客观的评价,从而达到帮助参演人员对演习过程进行分析评估、查找问题、总结经验和教训的目的。     

基于TensorFlow的四旋翼无人机着陆地标识别

针对多旋翼无人机在无人干预情况下的自主着陆问题,提出一种基于迁移学习的地面标识图像检测方法.该方法基于TensorFlow深度学习框架,使用迁移学习技术在地面标识数据集上重新训练Inception-v3模型以构建新的地面标识识别模型.以四旋翼无人机为例,将其拍摄的着陆坪图片与其他地面标识图片作为训练集输入神经网络,通过多次训练校正神经网络参数.实验结果表明,基于迁移学习的四旋翼无人机着陆地标识别比直接基于In-ception-v3模型的识别效果要好得多,在仅有数千张训练图片的情况下,测试准确率超过90％.在Windows下训练、测试的模型可移植到树莓派3B上,完成了基于Python和TensorFlow开发的程序在不同操作系统下运行的验证工作.     

Preparation and characterization of HMX/EVA/hBNNSs micro-composites with improved thermal stability and reduced sensitivity

Hexagonal boron nitride nanosheets(HBNNSs)have huge potential in the field of coating materials owing to their remarkable chemical stability,mechanical strength and thermal conductivity.Thin-layer hBNNSs were obtained by a liquid-phase exfoliation of h-BN powders and incorporated into EVA coatings for improving the safety performance of 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane(HMX).HBNNSs and ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer(EVA)were introduced to HMX by a solvent-slurry process.For com-parison,the HMX/EVA and HMX/EVA/graphene(HMX/EVA/G)composites were also prepared by a similar process.The morphology,crystal form,surface element distribution,thermal decomposition property and impact sensitivity of HMX/EVA/hBNNSs composites were contrastively investigated.Results showed that as prepared HMX/EVA/hBNNSs composites were well coated with hBNNSs and EVA,and exhibited better thermal stability and lower impact sensitivity than that of HMX/EVA and HMX/EVA/G composites,suggesting superior performance of desensitization of hBNNSs in explosives.     

Survivability assessment of spacecraft impacted by orbit debris

To help optimize the spacecraft design and reduce the risk of spacecraft mission failure, a new approach to assess the survivability of spacecraft in orbit is presented here, including the following three steps:1) Sensitivity Analysis of spacecraft. A new sensitivity analysis method, a ray method based on virtual outer wall, is presented here. Using rays to simulate the debris cloud can effectively address the component shadowing issues. 2) Component Vulnerability analysis of spacecraft. A function"Component functional reduction degree — Component physical damage degree"is provided here to clearly describe the component functional reduction. 3) System-level Survivability Assessment of spacecraft. A new method based on expert knowledge reasoning, instead of traditional artificial failure tree method, is presented here to greatly improve the efficiency and accuracy of calculation.     

An experiment evaluating how the tiny mass eccentricities in spin-stabilized projectiles affect the position of impact points

This study investigates and quantifies some possible sources affecting the position of impact points of small caliber spin-stabilized projectiles (such as 12.7 mm bullets). A comparative experiment utilizing the control variable method was designed to figure out the influence of tiny eccentric centroids on the projectiles. The study critically analyzes data obtained from characteristic parameter measurements and precision trials. It also combines Sobol's algorithm with an artificial intelligence algorithm—Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)—in order to conduct global sensitivity analysis and determine which parameters were most influential. The results indicate that the impact points of projectiles with an entry angle of 0° deflected to the left to that of projectiles with an entry angle of 90°. The difference of the mean coordinates of impact points was about 12.61 cm at a target range of 200 m. Variance analysis indicated that the entry angle — i.e. the initial position of mass eccentricity — had a notable influence. After global sensitivity analysis, the significance of the effect of mass eccentricity was confirmed again and the most influential factors were determined to be the axial moment and transverse moment of inertia (Izz Iyy), the mass of a projectile (m), the distance between nose and center of mass along the symmetry axis for a projectile (Lm), and the eccentric distance of the centroid (Lr). The results imply that the control scheme by means of modifying mass center (moving mass or mass eccentricity) is promising for designing small-caliber spin-stabilized projectiles.     

Insensitive energetic microspheres DAAF/RDX fabricated by facile molecular self-assembly

Insensitive energetic materials are promising in the defense weapons field. However, energetic materials still suffer from great challenges and the concern about their safety limits their utilization. In this work, insensitive energetic explosive 3,3′-diamino-4,4′-azoxyfurazan/hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (DAAF/RDX) microspheres were fabricated by self-assembly method. Rod-like DAAF/RDX was prepared by mechanical ball milling for comparison. DAAF/RDX composites with different mass ratios (90:10, 80:20, and 70:30) were obtained. The morphologies and structures of as-obtained DAAF/RDX composites were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD) and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). The results showed that DAAF/RDX microspheres exhibited regular shaped microspheres with sizes from 0.5 to 1.2 μm. There was no crystal transition during the modification process. The thermal properties of as-obtained materials were then evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and materials studio software. DAAF/RDX microspheres showed an advanced decomposition peak temperature compared with rod-like DAAF/RDX. The binding energy and peak temperature values at zero β_i (T_P0) of DAAF/RDX (90:10) increased by 36.77 kJ/mol, 1.6 °C, and 58.11 kJ/mol, 12.3 °C compared to DAAF/RDX (80:20) and DAAF/RDX (70:30), indicating the better thermal stability of DAAF/RDX (90:10). The characteristic drop height (H₅₀) of DAAF/RDX (higher than 100 cm) composites was higher than that of raw RDX (25 cm), suggesting significant improvements in mechanical safety. The preparation of DAAF/RDX microspheres is promising for the desensitization of RDX and useful for the formation of other materials and future wide applications.     

基于模糊综合评判的野战输油管线部队人员绩效评估

本文探讨了野战输油管线部队人员绩效评估的原则,构建了野战输油管线部队人员绩效评估的指标体系和模糊评判模型,并给出了对某野战输油管线大队人员进行绩效评估的实例。     

程序进化器

研究用模拟进化方法进行程序设计的途径。构造了以形式文法为遗传表示的程序进化器,提出了这个进化器使用的有关算法。本文用程序进化器解决了人工蚁问题。