RAISING THE COST OF REBELLION: THE ROLE OF THIRD‐PARTY INTERVENTION IN INTRASTATE CONFLICT

This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson‐Grossman (2000 Gershenson, D. and Grossman, H.I. 2000. Civil conflict: ended or never ending?. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(6): 807–821.  [Google Scholar]) framework of conflict in a two‐stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three‐stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b Chang, Y.‐M., Potter, J. and Sanders, S. 2007b. War and peace: third‐party intervention in conflict. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(4): 954–974.  [Google Scholar]), we examine the conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government’s potential to succeed in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter‐governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third‐party intervention deters rebellion.     

基于故障相关2单元并联系统的备件消耗预测

针对工程实践中存在的故障相关2单元并联系统,通过单元故障率分析,研究了系统备件消耗预测方法.将故障相关情况分为一般情况和特殊情况,分别推导了单元累积故障分布函数,在此基础上,建立了备件消耗预测模型.通过实例分析,验证了该方法的可行性,为工程实践中备件消耗预测提供了参考.     

高柔悬臂结构的弯曲型集中质量模型研究

基于质量集中和刚度等效的原则,提出了一种将高柔悬臂结构简化为弯曲型集中质量模型的新方法。首先,根据集中质量法确定简化模型节点处的集中质量。然后,基于振动特征方程和悬臂结构柔度矩阵中各元素与抗弯刚度的倒数之间具有线性关系的特点,推导出固有频率与层间等效抗弯刚度之间的非线性关系式;通过有限元软件对结构进行模态分析,提取其固有频率,将提取的固有频率代入关系式即可计算出等效抗弯刚度。最后,用数值算例对比验证了该模型简化方法的有效性和精确性。     

空间飞行器主动段的轨道估计与误差分析

为了对无源探测卫星系统的定轨方式和精度进行定量分析,通过坐标转换、受力分析、拟合、最小二乘法、微分方程数值解法与误差分析等方法,建立了基于卫星无源探测的空间飞行器在主动段的交汇定位优化模型和运动方程模型。基于模拟数据和模型,给出了卫星和空间飞行器的轨道曲线以及卫星的系统误差。经过系统误差修正,空间飞行器的估计轨道误差仅为7.582 1 m。     

基于图像识别引导的AGV运行仿真研究

在自动化立体库中,为较好地分析AGV图像识别引导技术,验证该技术的可行性,进行了AGV运行仿真研究。首先,分析了AGV运行环境情况,利用3dsMax进行了场景建模。然后,将模型文件读入OpenGL,编写程序实现AGV运动和运行视点的变换。通过采集AGV车身与路径轴线的偏差,计算其平均绝对误差并与实际要求比较,结果满足实际要求,从而验证了该技术的可行性。     

界面热阻对金刚石/银复合材料导热率的影响

研究了金刚石／银复合材料的导热率与金刚石的含量、粒度等之间的关系,着重讨论了界面热阻对复合材料导热率的影响。并阐述了金刚石表面镀钛,能有效改善金刚石对银的润湿性,降低界面热阻,从而提高金刚石／银复合材料的导热率。     

一种简易高效的加速措施——移位常数

本文介绍在不增加硬件额外开销的情况下,提高巨型机“取操作数”速度的一种基于直接数指令的移位常数方法。     

Inventory financing under Risk-Adjusted-Return-On-Capital criterion

Risk-Adjusted-Return-On-Capital (RAROC) is a loan-pricing criterion under which a bank sets the loan term such that a certain rate of return is achieved on the regulatory capital required by the Basel regulation. Some banks calculate the amount of regulatory capital for each loan under the standardized approach (“standardized banks,” the regulatory capital is proportional to the loan amount), and others under the internal rating-based (IRB) approach (“IRB banks,” the regulatory capital is related to the Value-at-Risk of the loan). This article examines the impact of the RAROC criterion on the bank's loan-pricing decision and the retailer's inventory decision. We find that among the loan terms that satisfy the bank's RAROC criterion, the one that benefits the retailer the most requires the bank to specify an inventory advance rate in addition to the interest rate. Under this loan term, the retailer's inventory level is more sensitive to his asset level when facing an IRB bank compared to a standardized bank. An IRB (standardized) loan leads to higher profit and inventory level for retailers with high (low) asset. For retailers with medium asset, an IRB loan results in a higher retailer profit but a lower consumer welfare. Calibrated numerical study reveals that the benefit of choosing standardized banks (relative to IRB banks) can be as high as 30% for industries with severe capital constraints, volatile demands, and low profit margins, highlighting the importance for retailers to carefully choose the type of banks to borrow from. When the interest rate is capped by regulation, retailers borrowing from a standardized bank are more likely to be influenced by the interest rate cap than those borrowing from an IRB bank. Under strong empire-building incentives (the bank will offer loan terms to maximize the size of the loan), retailers with medium initial asset level shift their preference from IRB banks to standardized banks.     

并行程序中同步瓶颈的检测和优化方法

针对并发程序中锁的不当使用可能导致性能瓶颈的问题,提出检测和优化并发程序中同步瓶颈的方法IdeSync。IdeSync使用静态分析方法获取同步方法和同步块,构建静态同步依赖图,采用基于执行路径的动态分析技术进行同步依赖关系分析,构建同步依赖图。为了暴露性能瓶颈,在同步依赖图上通过增加程序工作负载的方式,监测临界区的性能变化,并针对检测到的同步瓶颈给出优化建议。在实验中通过HSQLDB、SPECjbb2005和RxJava等12个大型实际应用程序对IdeSync的有效性进行验证,共检测到72个同步瓶颈,根据优化建议进行优化后程序性能均有所提升。实验表明,IdeSync能够有效地检测和优化同步瓶颈。     

无人机侦察情报即时任务排序研究

针对战时无人机侦察情报系统,人工难于将大量的情报需求进行排序问题,研究在系统过载和未过载的情况下,硬实时任务集合和软实时任务集合的不同算法。采用层次分析法计算每个参数权重,使用离散数据标准化方法对每种算法的数据进行处理,实现了无人机侦察任务即时排序,并通过算例验证了算法的有效性。