Pairwise model discrimination with applications in lifetime distributions and degradation processes

Reliability data obtained from life tests and degradation tests have been extensively used for purposes such as estimating product reliability and predicting warranty costs. When there is more than one candidate model, an important task is to discriminate between the models. In the literature, the model discrimination was often treated as a hypothesis test and a pairwise model discrimination procedure was carried out. Because the null distribution of the test statistic is unavailable in most cases, the large sample approximation and the bootstrap were frequently used to find the acceptance region of the test. Although these two methods are asymptotically accurate, their performance in terms of size and power is not satisfactory in small sample size. To enhance the small‐sample performance, we propose a new method to approximate the null distribution, which builds on the idea of generalized pivots. Conventionally, the generalized pivots were often used for interval estimation of a certain parameter or function of parameters in presence of nuisance parameters. In this study, we further extend the idea of generalized pivots to find the acceptance region of the model discrimination test. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in discriminating between two lifetime distributions or two degradation models over a wide range of sample sizes. Two real examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

复杂背景条件下的红外图像末制导技术

通过结合目标红外特征,研究了空-空弹在复杂背景条件下的目标红外成像末制导的技术原理和实施途径。对复杂地背景的辐射特征和主要空中攻击目标军用喷气战机的目标红外辐射源类型作了分析,研究了红外目标特征的提取方法和算法。     

基于"姿态矩阵"量测的机载导弹传递对准技术

"速度+姿态"量测匹配方案是目前比较理想的机载导弹传递对准技术.采用"姿态"量测时存在矩阵计算量大等缺点,在具体工程应用时更会受到计算机速度的限制,尤其是需要快速进行卡尔曼滤波计算时.引入了一种与"姿态"量测具有相同特点的"姿态矩阵"量测方案,设计了快速对准卡尔曼滤波器,并进行了仿真分析.结果表明是一种具有工程意义的实用快速传递对准技术.     

电晕放电辐射信号分析的小波基函数选取

研究电晕放电辐射信号既有利于消除其危害又有助于加强对其利用。针对小波变换提出在不同情况下对不同类型的电晕放电进行分析时,选取小波基函数的方法,理论上可以通过信号与小波波形的匹配或者通过计算信号与小波相关系数的方法来确定,而在不确定放电类型时可进行实际分析。     

半无限大海水空间中水平电流元产生的电磁场计算

提出一种根据经典的Summerfield赫兹矢量来计算空气和海水中水平直流电流元在半无限大海水空间中所产生的电磁场的简单方法,并用J．R．Wait, P．R．Bannister和R．L．Dube的方法验证了用该方法推导出的电磁场表达式是正确的。     

复杂非线性隔冲减振系统计算分析

基于结构动力学理论,提出了一种用于分析计算复杂非线性隔冲减振系统的双模型两步计算法。该方法将冲击振动分成2个阶段:冲击作用阶段和自由振动阶段。冲击作用阶段,采用两自由度模型进行响应计算,该两自由度模型可有效地解决基础冲击输入问题;自由振动阶段,采用单自由度模型进行响应计算,设备在该阶段以冲击终了时刻的速度和位移为初始条件进行振动。文中还对一个典型的复杂非线性系统的冲击过程进行了数值计算.该方法亦可用于线性隔冲减振系统的计算分析.     

国防和军队建设贯彻科学发展观的切入点

在国防和军队建设中贯彻科学发展观,应该认真领会科学发展观的精神实质,从以人为本、讲求效益、开拓创新三个切入点入手,使科学发展观与国防和军队建设有机地融合起来,与国防和军队建设的方方面面的工作紧密结合起来。     

装备健康管理的现状、未来与挑战

近十几年来,装备诊断、预测与健康管理(DPHM)作为使能装备质量管理和综合保障的关键技术,得到了世界许多国家学术界和工程界,特别是国防工业部门和军方的高度关注与重视。呈现新兴多科学交叉、军民兼用的特点。文章针对复杂工程系统/装备健康管理的现状、未来与挑战,从其体系框架、科学问题、关键技术与发展策略等方面进行了较为深入的讨论。     

Does Military Spending Really Matter for Economic Growth in China and G7 Countries: The Roles of Dependency and Heterogeneity

This study revisits the causal linkages between military spending and economic growth in China and G7 countries (i.e. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the USA) by focusing country-specific analysis for the period 1988–2010. The panel causality analysis, which accounts for both cross-country dependency and heterogeneity across countries, is employed in this study. Our results find evidence of the neutrality hypothesis for Italy, France, and Germany, the military spending–growth detriment hypothesis for both Canada and the UK, and one-way Granger causality running from economic growth to military spending for China. Furthermore, we find a feedback between military spending and economic growth in both Japan and the USA. Thus, our results do not support that one size fits all.     

海洋环境对反潜巡逻机声纳浮标搜潜装备的作战保障

反潜巡逻飞机具有快速反应能力强、航程远、留空时间长、可装备多种搜潜设备和攻潜武器以及不易受潜艇威胁的优势,已成为世界海军强国竞相发展的装备。海洋环境对航空兵反潜作战的影响巨大,能否充分利用海洋环境条件,关系到搜潜器材能否及时、有效地发现潜艇目标。主要分析了海洋环境噪声对反潜巡逻机浮标搜潜装备的作战保障问题。