Newsvendor problems with sequentially revealed demand information

This article analyzes a capacity/inventory planning problem with a one‐time uncertain demand. There is a long procurement leadtime, but as some partial demand information is revealed, the firm is allowed to cancel some of the original capacity reservation at a certain fee or sell off some inventory at a lower price. The problem can be viewed as a generalization of the classic newsvendor problem and can be found in many applications. One key observation of the analysis is that the dynamic programming formulation of the problem is closely related to a recursion that arises in the study of a far more complex system, a series inventory system with stochastic demand over an infinite horizon. Using this equivalence, we characterize the optimal policy and assess the value of the additional demand information. We also extend the analysis to a richer model of information. Here, demand is driven by an underlying Markov process, representing economic conditions, weather, market competition, and other environmental factors. Interestingly, under this more general model, the connection to the series inventory system is different. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2012     

A standardized scan statistic for detecting spatial clusters with estimated parameters

The scan statistic based on likelihood ratios (LRs) have been widely discussed for detecting spatial clusters. When developing the scan statistic, it uses the maximum likelihood estimates of the incidence rates inside and outside candidate clusters to substitute the true values in the LR statistic. However, the parameter estimation has a significant impact on the sensitivity of the scan statistic, which favors the detection of clusters in areas with large population sizes. By presenting the effects of parameter estimation on Kulldorff's scan statistic, we suggest a standardized scan statistic for spatial cluster detection. Compared to the traditional scan statistic, the standardized scan statistic can account for the varying mean and variance of the LR statistic due to inhomogeneous background population sizes. Extensive simulations have been performed to compare the power of the two cluster detection methods with known or/and estimated parameters. The simulation results show that the standardization can help alleviate the effects of parameter estimation and improve the detection of localized clusters. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Irreducibility of joint inventory positions in an assemble‐to‐order system under (r,nQ) policies

In a typical assemble‐to‐order system, a customer order may request multiple items, and the order may not be filled if any of the requested items are out of stock. A key customer service measure when unfilled orders are backordered is the order‐based backorder level. To evaluate this crucial performance measure, a fundamental question is whether the stationary joint inventory positions follow an independent and uniform distribution. In this context, this is equivalent to the irreducibility of the Markov chain formed by the joint inventory positions. This article presents a necessary and sufficient condition for the irreducibility of such a Markov chain through a set of simultaneous Diophantine equations. This result also leads to sufficient conditions that are more general than those in the published reports. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于信息系统的作战指挥效能“嵌入式”评估策略

在分析基于信息系统的作战指挥效能评估特点的基础上,提出了"嵌入式"作战指挥效能评估策略;按照指挥实体、指挥活动、指挥效果3个层次,梳理了指挥主体效能、指挥信息系统效能、指挥活动效能和指挥对象任务效能4个方面的评估内容框架;根据评估活动与作战指挥活动"一体化"原理,设计了作战指挥效能评估在各个作战阶段的活动流程,并进一步提出了作战指挥效能评估工具"功能性嵌入"作战指挥信息系统的方法。     

供油挂车泵机油温度变化规律实验研究

通过实验研究了100 mm野战输油管线供油挂车泵运行时及停运后机油温度随时间的变化规律。采用数据拟合、回归分析等数学方法,分别研究了供油挂车泵空载和带负荷两种情况下机油温度的变化规律;针对供油挂车泵各种工作状态,分析了影响机油温度变化的主要因素,建立了温度变化数学模型。研究结果为100 mm和150 mm野战输油管线供、输油挂车泵机组模拟器的研制提供了一定参考。     

内压圆筒大开孔结构补强设计与应力分析

根据整体补强和厚壁接管补强2种型式,为内压圆筒大开孔结构确定满足结构和工艺要求的圆筒壁厚和3种规格接管壁厚。采用压力面积法和ASME规范对该大开孔结构进行强度校核,并运用有限元分析法进行结构的应力分析和数字模拟,比较不同壁厚接管的补强效果,从而确定容器的结构尺寸。设备实际运行结果表明:该结构强度满足工作要求。     

军队会计流程存在的问题及优化策略

在新军事变革的背景下,军队会计流程存在不适应新管理体制需要、信息技术应用对会计流程再造力度不够、军队会计科目设置影响流程等问题。本文从界定军队会计流程的含义入手,提出了优化军队会计流程、建立智能化军队会计信息系统的四项策略,即重塑军队会计流程体系、重构军队会计信息系统、调整军队会计科目体系以及完善各流程会计处理方法。优化军队会计流程、建设智能化军队会计信息系统,不仅能够反映军事经济活动的历史信息,还能为不同类型的信息使用者提供预测、决策等支持,并有利于改善军队会计核算质量,准确反映各类资产负债的价值信息和单位的真实财务状况,对于提高军队会计信息质量具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于"网云端"的新型指挥控制系统体系结构建模

指挥控制系统是综合电子信息系统的核心,是作战效能的"倍增器"和作战指挥的"神经中枢".从"网-云-端"的结构出发,分析了新型指挥控制系统的总体架构和组成关系;通过分析美国国防部体系结构框架(DoDAF2.0),提出了基于DoDAF2.0的新型指挥控制系统体系结构建模流程;采用结构化和面向对象相结合的方法,设计了新型指挥控制系统作战视角、服务视角、能力视角以及系统视角的关键模型,为系统的具体设计与开发、系统评估与分析提供可靠的模型支持.     

舰空导弹武器系统抗干扰能力试验方法

针对舰空导弹武器系统抗干扰能力考核需求,提出一种试验方法,基于舰空导弹武器系统的制导控制系统半实物仿真试验对多种干扰环境下的武器系统抗干扰能力进行逐一检验,通过外场飞行试验进行典型工况下的验证,该方法实现了对舰空导弹武器系统抗干扰成功概率的有效考核,还可以支撑对防空导弹武器系统在单一、复合干扰形式下的抗干扰能力指标的评估.     

基于演化博弈的结构化无人集群协作控制方法

针对无人集群作战中的分工合作问题,提出了一种基于演化博弈的结构化集群协作控制方法.分析无人集群分工合作需求,基于演化博弈理论,构建结构化集群分工合作模型;在此基础上,理论推导模型的演化动力学过程及博弈均衡解,得出集群分工合作的形成条件;最后,以集群火力打击任务为想定,仿真规则图及一般拓扑上的集群策略演化过程,仿真结果与理论推导相印证,证明了模型方法的合理性与可行性,为相关理论向实际应用转化提供了初步和有意义的探索.