证据推理法在C4ISR系统可靠性评价中的应用

首先参考外军NATO COBP阐述了不确定性处理在C4ISR系统评价中的重要性,鉴于ER方法的先进思想,介绍了ER(Evidential Reasoning)方法在不确定条件下的基本评价框架,并对ER方法和AHP方法,D-S证据理论以及模糊综合评价方法进行了比较综合,针对我军C4ISR系统可靠性评价中的数据不完备等实际问题,初步应用此方法进行评价,对决策人员有一定的参考意义.     

考虑质检误差的产品分组检验决策模型研究

质量检测是确保产品生产质量能够达到技术要求的主要手段,为了减小检验误差的影响,采用不同检验方法进行多重检验在产品质量控制中得到了普遍采用,但过多的产品重检又增加了检验开销。为此,首先提出了产品分组检验决策模型,根据各个检验站检验能力的不同,按组分配不同的检验方案和检验次数;然后,利用改进的模型求解算法,能够在降低算法复杂度的情况下,解算出分组数量、每个分组中产品所占比例和对应的检验站分配方案;最后,通过案例实验,分析了检验精度等模型参数对检验站分配方案和错检率的影响。研究结果表明:即使产品缺陷率相同时,模型也能取得较好的效果。     

提升装备物资采购保障能力的策略设计

装备物资采购关系到装备保障职能的充分发挥和作战效能发挥能力的积累,其采购保障过程涉及极其复杂的技术问题和管理问题。采购保障策略是开展采购和管理项目所确定的思路和实现途径,完善的采购保障策略设计对于重大的装备物资采购项目的成败具有举足轻重的作用。本文从军队装备物资采购的基本内涵与特点入手,结合工作实践和调查研究,从采购信息运用、流程管控、权责修订、法规约束和需求预测等业务管理层面进行分析,阐述了当前装备物资采购的发展现状,提出了提升装备物资采购保障能力的策略设计,以期实现采购组织、流程和系统的整体优化,为装备物资采购改革中相关措施的修订与完善提供新思路和新方法。     

装备维修宏观调控指标体系研究

在对大量历史数据的统计分析基础上 ,科学确定了全军装备维修宏观管理所需的调控指标 ,并建立了计量经济学模型和回归模型 ,为装备维修宏观调控提供了基本依据。     

飞秒激光脉冲测量原理与数值模拟分析方法

飞秒fs(1fs=10~(-15)s)激光脉冲测量是飞秒激光技术中非常重要的研究内容,由于测量的复杂性,操作上一般是实际测量与数值模拟结合进行,因而非常注重测量的方法性,但在实际测量中,许多测量者只注重单一方法的使用,最终往往很难达到理想的结果。为此,在对自相关测量法原理作简要介绍的基础上,着重阐述了近年发展起来的基于其上的光学频率光栅开关法(FROG)和自参考光谱位相相干电场重建法(SPIDER)的原理,及其数值模拟分析方法,以给实际测量者提供一个较全面的方法参考选择。     

Discrete‐time analysis of MAP/PH/1 multiclass general preemptive priority queue

We use the matrix‐geometric method to study the MAP/PH/1 general preemptive priority queue with a multiple class of jobs. A procedure for obtaining the block matrices representing the transition matrix P is presented. We show that the special upper triangular structure of the matrix R obtained by Miller [Computation of steady‐state probabilities for M/M/1 priority queues, Oper Res 29(5) (1981), 945–958] can be extended to an upper triangular block structure. Moreover, the subblock matrices of matrix R also have such a structure. With this special structure, we develop a procedure to compute the matrix R. After obtaining the stationary distribution of the system, we study two primary performance indices, namely, the distributions of the number of jobs of each type in the system and their waiting times. Although most of our analysis is carried out for the case of K = 3, the developed approach is general enough to study the other cases (K ≥ 4). © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 662–682, 2003.     

Reliability of a two-dimensional demand-based networked system with multistate components

Existing research on multistate system reliability has mainly focused on one-dimensional systems such as parallel systems, linear sliding window systems, and linearly consecutively connected systems. However, two-dimensional networked systems widely exist in real-world applications such as lighting systems, monitoring systems, and computer network systems. This research considers a two-dimensional networked system consisting of multistate components. The system fails if the cumulative performance of any row or any column cannot meet a predetermined demand. A novel reliability evaluation algorithm is proposed for the considered two-dimensional networked system by extending the universal generating function technique. Furthermore, the proposed model and reliability evaluation algorithm are extended to a two-dimensional networked system with phased missions. The proposed models and algorithms are illustrated by a matrix heating system in a thermoforming machine.     

螺栓法兰连接结构有限元模型参数确定方法

螺栓法兰连接广泛用于各种工业结构中,为准确预测该连接在实际工作中发挥的作用,需要建立准确高效的有限元模型。针对有限元建模过程中模型各种参数的确定问题,综合使用数值仿真手段和试验手段分别对模型网格参数和接触参数的确定开展研究。参数确定后的螺栓法兰连接结构有限元模型在保证计算精度的前提下,计算效率得到显著提高。     

基于云贝叶斯网络的毁伤效果评估方法

目标毁伤效果评估是为指挥员提供决策的量化的依据,是现代信息化战争中必不可少的一环。基于图像的毁伤评估技术更是现代信息化战争必不可少的评估手段,通过对毁伤图像进行特征量提取,基于贝叶斯网络的概率推理和云模型强大的知识表示,进行毁伤评估值和毁伤等级的计算。仿真结果表明,该方法充分考虑到了不确定信息的模糊性和随机性,具有有效性和可行性。