To wait or not to wait: Optimal ordering under lead time uncertainty and forecast updating

There has been a dramatic increase over the past decade in the number of firms that source finished product from overseas. Although this has reduced procurement costs, it has increased supply risk; procurement lead times are longer and are often unreliable. In deciding when and how much to order, firms must consider the lead time risk and the demand risk, i.e., the accuracy of their demand forecast. To improve the accuracy of its demand forecast, a firm may update its forecast as the selling season approaches. In this article we consider both forecast updating and lead time uncertainty. We characterize the firm's optimal procurement policy, and we prove that, with multiplicative forecast revisions, the firm's optimal procurement time is independent of the demand forecast evolution but that the optimal procurement quantity is not. This leads to a number of important managerial insights into the firm's planning process. We show that the firm becomes less sensitive to lead time variability as the forecast updating process becomes more efficient. Interestingly, a forecast‐updating firm might procure earlier than a firm with no forecast updating. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

60年人民海军建设指导思想的丰富和发展

人民海军成立60年来,以毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛为代表的党的领导核心不断丰富和发展海军建设指导思想,对于开辟新中国独立自主建设强大海军的道路,建设"精干""顶用"的现代海军,走中国特色海上精兵之路及实现新世纪新阶段海军建设又好又快发展具有重要意义.     

新中国60年党的军事指导理论创新的基本经验

新中国60年,党的军事指导理论创新经历了前后两个30年的两大发展阶段,取得了两大理论成果,积累了基本经验,主要是:解放思想、更新观念,是党的军事指导理论创新的前提;坚持中国特色,走自己的路,是党的军事指导理论创新的关键;注重解决重大现实问题,是党的军事指导理论创新的突破口;正确处理继承与发展的关系,是党的军事指导理论创新的保证.     

Specification vagueness and supply quality risk

Specifying quality requirement is integral to any sourcing relationship, but vague and ambiguous specifications can often be observed in practice, especially when a buyer is in the initial stage of sourcing a new product. In this research, we study a supplier's production incentives under vague or exact quality specifications. We prove that a vague specification may in fact motivate the supplier to increase its quantity provision, resulting in a higher delivery quality. Vague quality specification can therefore be advantageous for a buyer to screen potential suppliers with an initial test order, and then rely on the received quality level to set more concrete quality guidelines. There is a degree, though, to which vague quality specification can be effective, as too much vagueness may decrease the supplier's quantity provision and hence the expected delivery quality. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Operations sequencing for a multi‐stage production inventory system

This article studies operations sequencing for a multi‐stage production inventory system with lead times under predictable (deterministic) yield losses and random demand. We consider various cases with either full or partial release of work‐in‐process inventories, for either pre‐operation or post‐operation cost structures, and under either the total discounted or average cost criteria. We derive necessary and sufficient criteria for the optimal sequence of operations in all cases. While the criteria differ in their specific forms, they all lead to the same principal: those operations with (1) lower yields, (2) lower processing costs, (3) longer lead times, and (4) lower inventory holding costs should be placed higher upstream in the system.Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 144–154, 2014     

张学良的军事思想

爱国救国是张学良军事思想的最主要内容,他先后提出过"息内战、御外侮",实现全国抗战、联共抗日等政治思想主张。为了将军队建设成一支能抗御外侮、保国卫民的武装力量,还提出了一系列建军治军的思想。张学良的爱国军事思想是他发动西安事变的重要驱动力,西安事变是张学良爱国军事思想的逻辑发展。     

按照新使命的需求深入推进军队建设转型

履行好我军新的历史使命,必须准确把握新世纪新阶段我军历史使命的科学内涵和时代背景,解决军队建设中的“两个不相适应”的主要矛盾,处理好军队建设转型与社会改革、军事斗争准备和国家经济建设的关系,加速推进军队建设转型,以满足国家对军队的新需求。     

ε-己内酯合成中热聚合

采用新方法合成ε-己内酯,通过两步减压蒸馏收集己内酯,只能得到很少量的单体,大量反应产物以粘稠状蒸馏残余物形式存在。利用GC、TG、DTA、NMR等表征手段对反应产物进行分析研究,得出己内酯在蒸馏过程中发生了热聚合,残余物为己内酯的低聚物,分子量在650左右。     

基于Hill方程的编队卫星群运动分析与轨道设计

从Hill方程出发 ,研究了绕飞轨道的性质及编队卫星群的轨道设计方法。从三方面对绕飞轨道进行了描述 :坐标平面投影 ,与坐标平面的夹角 ,绕飞轨道根数。编队卫星群的轨道设计分两步进行 :先求基本环绕卫星的轨道根数 ;再求其它环绕卫星的轨道根数。仿真结果表明 ,此方法适用于编队飞行的初步设计     

基于谐波恢复方法的直升机声信号特征提取

在对直升机声信号特征进行分析之后,提出了一种基于谐波恢复的ESPRIT方法来提取直升机声信号谐波频率作为特征用以识别直升机声目标。同时对ESPRIT方法与其它方法在提取谐波能力方面作了比较。最后对实测的直升机声信号进行了谐波提取。各种结果均显示谐波恢复的ESPRIT方法在提取谐波频率方面较之其它方法更为优越,用它提取直升机声信号特征是十分有效的。