A nuclear-armed North Korea without ICBMs: the best achievable objective

This article analyzes the North Korean nuclear crisis from a balance-of-power perspective. It is in the long-term interests of international peace for a secure and independent North Korea to serve as a buffer between US and Chinese ground forces. However, the conventional military advantage of the South Korean-American alliance over North Korea has grown drastically since the end of the Cold War, threatening North Korea’s survival. Since North Korea lacks any reliable ally, nuclear weapons represent its most cost-effective way to restore a balance of power and thus secure itself. Accepting security guarantees in exchange for its nuclear arsenal is rhetorically appealing but not a viable approach. North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, has overcompensated for the post-Cold War imbalance, inviting talk in Washington of waging a preventive war. Persuading North Korea to give up its ICBM capability, not its nuclear arsenal, should therefore be the primary objective of US diplomacy.     

Mathematical formulation and heuristic algorithm for the block relocation and loading problem

This study considers the block relocation and loading problem in container terminals. The optimal loading sequence and relocation location are simultaneously decided on the basis of the desired ship‐bay and initial yard space configuration. An integer linear programming model is developed to minimize the number of relocations in the yard space on the basis of no shifts in the ship bay. The accuracy of the model is tested on small‐scale scenarios by using CPLEX. Considering the problem size in the real world, we present a rule‐based heuristic method that is combined with a mathematical model for the removal, loading, and relocation operations. The influence of rules on algorithm performance is also analyzed, and the heuristic algorithm is compared with different types of algorithms in the literature. The extensive numerical experiments show the efficiency of the proposed heuristic algorithm.     

Estimating the lead-time demand distribution for an autocorrelated demand by the pearson system and a normal approximation

The exact first four moments of lead-time demand L are derived for an AR(1) and a MA(1) demand structures where the arbitrary lead-time distribution is assumed to be independent of the demand structure. These moments then form a basis for the Pearson curve-fitting procedure for estimating the distribution of L. A normal approximation to L, a version of the central limit theorem, is obtained under some general conditions. Reorder points (ROPs) of an inventory system are then estimated based on the Pearson system and a normal approximation. Their performances are evaluated. Numerical investigation shows that the Pearson system performs extremely well. The normal approximation, however, is good only for some limited cases, and is sensitive to the choice of the lead-time distribution. A possible improvement is noted.     

超宽带雷达的欺骗式干扰技术研究

根据超宽带雷达的工作方式和成像特点,提出基于DRFM与DDS技术对超宽带雷达实施假目标干扰的方法.通过分析超宽带雷达距离维成像的基本原理,提出利用DDS技术对转发信号实施移频调制,并根据需要产生不同特征的假目标干扰.在理论分析的基础上进行了仿真实验,仿真结果证明了这种方法的可行性.该方法可对一维和二维雷达成像进行干扰.     

推进党内民主建设 增强党的团结统一

胡锦涛同志在党的十七大报告中,将"发展党内民主"提升到了"党内民主建设"的战略高度,并对推进党内民主建设明确了目标任务和有效方略。深入学习领会、准确把握讲话的这一精神,对于开创党内民主建设新局面具有重大而深远的意义。     

具有战时随机延误与损耗的多配送中心路径优化

建立了具有战时随机延误与损耗的多配送中心配送路径安排模型,给出了基于随机模拟的蚁群算法。算法通过给定残存率、用时与置信度阈值,把多目标问题作为单目标来处理。用随机模拟的方法来求路径的置信度,并以此为基础搜索转移策略的临域与判断未遍历点的插入位置。算法设计了符合问题特点的从虚拟点出发的转移策略与对两类路段不同的信息素更新策略,确保算法的实现。最后,通过算例说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

50000m~3油罐壁厚设计比较与分析

油罐的壁厚设计关系到油罐的经济性和可靠性,如何把握两者的辩证关系对油罐的设计与建设具有十分重要的意义。传统上大型油罐壁厚设计采用的是变点法;以可靠度理论为基础,以可靠性分析模型为核心,提出利用可靠度法求解大型油罐壁厚的新方法。以50 000 m3油罐为例,编程分析并计算以2种方法设计的壁厚。变点法设计的底圈罐壁厚度与圈数无关;以中心点可靠度法求解壁厚,可靠性指标一定时,底圈罐壁厚度同样与圈数无关。探讨可靠度法求解壁厚的可行性,验证变点法设计壁厚的可靠性。     

基于公式法的某型水陆坦克海上火力打击效能

针对某型水陆坦克火力威力和火控系统特点,运用定性与定量分析相结合的方式,研究水陆坦克的火力打击效能。运用公式法,从分析某型水陆坦克海上射击误差入手,结合海上作战环境,研究其命中概率,并结合环境特点,分析条件毁伤概率,确定其对M60A3坦克和工事目标的火力打击的能力,得出了水陆坦克的开火距离、弹种选择等相关结果。研究结论对于分析火力打击效能提供了较为合理的方法,对于指导某型水陆坦克海上火力运用提供了借鉴作用。     

Production and transport logistics scheduling with two transport mode choices

This paper considers a new class of scheduling problems arising in logistics systems in which two different transportation modes are available at the stage of product delivery. The mode with the shorter transportation time charges a higher cost. Each job ordered by the customer is first processed in the manufacturing facility and then transported to the customer. There is a due date for each job to arrive to the customer. Our approach integrates the machine scheduling problem in the manufacturing stage with the transportation mode selection problem in the delivery stage to achieve the global maximum benefit. In addition to studying the NP‐hard special case in which no tardy job is allowed, we consider in detail the problem when minimizing the sum of the total transportation cost and the total weighted tardiness cost is the objective. We provide a branch and bound algorithm with two different lower bounds. The effectiveness of the two lower bounds is discussed and compared. We also provide a mathematical model that is solvable by CPLEX. Computational results show that our branch and bound algorithm is more efficient than CPLEX. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Coordinating independent buyers with integer‐ratio time coordination and quantity discounts

Supply chain members can gain substantial benefits by coordinating their activities. However, a remaining challenge is to create useful coordination mechanisms when channel members are independent. This paper develops a coordination strategy with which a supplier uses quantity discounts to entice independent buyers to comply with an integer‐ratio time coordination scheme. The problem is analyzed as a Stackelberg game in which the supplier acts as the leader by announcing its coordination policy in advance and buyers act as followers by deciding their ordering decisions with this information. The strategy is compared to a coordination mechanism with quantity discounts and power‐of‐two time coordination. While both strategies are able to produce substantial benefits over simple quantity discounts, integer‐ratio time coordination provides a better coordination mechanism for a decentralized supply chain. It is shown that power‐of‐two time coordination may not be able to provide a stable equilibrium coordination strategy when buyers act independently and opportunistically. Furthermore, if this is not the case, integer‐ratio time coordination is at least equally effective. Unlike a centralized solution, under which the improvement by integer‐ratio over power‐of‐two time coordination is limited to 2% of optimality, system cost reduction from a decentralized coordination strategy could be much more significant. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.