Maintenance policies when failure distribution of equipment is only partially known

An optimal schedule for checking an equipment subject to failure which can be detected by inspection only, is derived. Increasing failure rate and one percentile specify the otherwise unknown life distribution. Dynamic programming methodology yields the solution which minimizes the maximum expected cost. Numerical examples are presented and compared with models employing differing amounts of knowledge.     

Queueing processes and trade-offs during ship-to-shore transfer of cargo

This article examines the ship-to-shore transfer of cargo from ships that are located offshore. In these situations, cargo is transferred from the ships to smaller craft, which in turn transport the cargo the remaining distance to shore. These craft cycle back and forth from the ship to the shore until the transfer is complete. Queueing of these craft often occurs, as they must wait at either the ship or the shore for a loading or unloading position to become free. Two different methods of modeling this ship-to-shore transfer of cargo are developed and applied. One is an analytic queueing model and the other is a more traditional simulation model. The analytic model is found to produce results quite similar to the simulation model. Examples are shown that use these models to analyze trade-offs between variables affecting the ship-to-shore transfer of cargo and the total time to transfer a given amount of cargo ashore. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.