A nuclear-armed North Korea without ICBMs: the best achievable objective

This article analyzes the North Korean nuclear crisis from a balance-of-power perspective. It is in the long-term interests of international peace for a secure and independent North Korea to serve as a buffer between US and Chinese ground forces. However, the conventional military advantage of the South Korean-American alliance over North Korea has grown drastically since the end of the Cold War, threatening North Korea’s survival. Since North Korea lacks any reliable ally, nuclear weapons represent its most cost-effective way to restore a balance of power and thus secure itself. Accepting security guarantees in exchange for its nuclear arsenal is rhetorically appealing but not a viable approach. North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, has overcompensated for the post-Cold War imbalance, inviting talk in Washington of waging a preventive war. Persuading North Korea to give up its ICBM capability, not its nuclear arsenal, should therefore be the primary objective of US diplomacy.     

Evaluating the effects of machine breakdowns in stochastic scheduling problems

In most of the stochastic resource-allocation problems discussed in the literature it is supposed that the key resource, herein called the machine, is continuously available until all tasks are completed. Plainly, this will often be an unrealistic assumption. This paper supposes that intermittent availability of the machine is due to a breakdown proces, and describes various approaches to the evaluation of the effect of breakdowns. Firstly, for the case of geometric up times, conditions are given under which breakdowns have no effect on optimal allocation strategies. Secondly, two different procedures are given which yield an upper bound on the loss incurred when a processing strategy is adopted under the assumption of no breakdowns, when in fact breakdowns do occur. The first of these is based on Gittins's indices and is described for the case of geometric up times, and the second uses a bounding argument on the breakdown process.     

Dynamic evacuation routes for personnel on a naval ship

We propose a dynamic escape route system for emergency evacuation of a naval ship. The system employs signals that adapt to the causative contingency and the crew's physical distribution about the ship. A mixed‐integer nonlinear programming model, with underlying network structure, optimizes the evacuation process. The network's nodes represent compartments, closures (e.g., doors and hatches) and intersections, while arcs represent various types of passageways. The objective function integrates two potentially conflicting factors: average evacuation time and the watertight and airtight integrity of the ship after evacuation. A heuristic solves the model approximately using a sequence of mixed‐integer linear approximating problems. Using data for a Spanish frigate, with standard static routes specified by the ship's designers, computational tests show that the dynamic system can reduce average evacuation times, nearly 23%, and can improve a combined measure of ship integrity by up to 50%. In addition, plausible design changes to the frigate yield further, substantial improvements. Published 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2008     

Space,the New Domain: Space Operations and Chinese Military Reforms

ABSTRACT

The Chinese military has embarked on a series of organizational and doctrinal reforms intended to better enable it to fight modern war. Prominent among these reforms is the growing emphasis on space to enable long-range precisions strikes and on counterspace to deny space capabilities to an adversary. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has officially designated space as a new domain and established an organization to command space forces. With this increased focus on space, the PLA may begin to develop a doctrine to govern the use of space in military operations. The higher priority given to space, especially space control, by the PLA coincides with similar actions by the US military, increasing the possibility of warfare in space and the risks of escalation.     

Scheduling jobs that are subject to failure propagation

A single machine is available to process a collection of stochastic tasks. Processing is interrupted when the machine breaks down. We introduce a new model of breakdowns that more realistically incorporates the effects that job processing may have on the machine. This failure propagation model is equivalent to a Bayesian formulation in which learning about breakdown rates occurs as jobs evolve. Optimal scheduling policies are described in terms of Gittins indices and these indices are characterised in two special cases. For example, we obtain conditions which ensure that an optimal policy will only preempt a job's processing either at its completion or at a machine breakdown. We also bound the value lost by simplistic modelling which ignores the learning phenomenon. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimizing fishbone aisles for dual‐command operations in a warehouse

Unit‐load warehouses store and retrieve unit‐loads, typically pallets. When storage and retrieval operations are not coordinated, travel is from a pickup and deposit (P&D) point to a pallet location and back again. In some facilities, workers interleave storage and retrieval operations to form a dual‐command cycle. Two new aisle designs proposed by Gue and Meller (“Improving the unit‐load warehouse.” In Progress in Material Handling Research: 2006. Material Handling Industry of America, Charlotte, NC, 2006) use diagonal aisles to reduce the travel distance to a single pallet location by approximately 10 and 20[percnt] for the two designs, respectively. We develop analytical expressions for travel between pallet locations for one of these—the fishbone design. We then compare fishbone warehouses that have been optimized for dual‐command to traditional warehouses that have been optimized in the same manner, and show that an optimal fishbone design reduces dual‐command travel by 10–15%. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 54: 389–403, 2009     

Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.     

瓦楞纸板同步剪切控制系统的设计与研制

介绍了微机控制瓦楞纸板同步剪切控制系统的设计研制。该系统由直流电机调速系统和单片微型计算机控制系统两大部分组成。直流调速系统采用线性二次型最优调节器方法设计,计算机控制系统采用单片微机双ＣＰＵ技术。它是一个大功率高精度机电控制系统,具有响应速度快,剪切精度高,可靠性好,操作方便的特点。