Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

Approximation algorithms for capacitated stochastic inventory systems with setup costs

We develop the first approximation algorithm with worst‐case performance guarantee for capacitated stochastic periodic‐review inventory systems with setup costs. The structure of the optimal control policy for such systems is extremely complicated, and indeed, only some partial characterization is available. Thus, finding provably near‐optimal control policies has been an open challenge. In this article, we construct computationally efficient approximate optimal policies for these systems whose demands can be nonstationary and/or correlated over time, and show that these policies have a worst‐case performance guarantee of 4. We demonstrate through extensive numerical studies that the policies empirically perform well, and they are significantly better than the theoretical worst‐case guarantees. We also extend the analyses and results to the case with batch ordering constraints, where the order size has to be an integer multiple of a base load. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 304–319, 2014     

威胁环境生存突防优化策略分析

讨论了影响飞机作战生存性的主要因素,建立了生存概率模型。根据生存概率模型确立了威胁环境生存突防优化策略。最后,为了简化计算推导了实用危险性模型     

高超音速化学平衡流粘性激波层数值计算

本文给出了层流化学平衡粘性激波层方程对于细长解析体的数值解。这些求解结果是通过空间步进方法得到的,并且与参考文献里的计算结果作了比较,以估价该方法的精确度。结果表明,这种控制方程完全耦合求解的方法能够给出相当精确和稳定的结果,这些结果与参考文献的计算结果相当吻合。     

一种基于混合模拟的计算组合电路中软错误率的方法与工具

随着工艺尺寸的不断缩小,组合电路引起的SER(Soft Error Rates)越来越严重.针对使用HSPICE计算组合电路软错误率速度较慢以及使用传统的组合电路软错误率分析工具在对待重汇聚时计算精度不高的问题,本文提出了一种混合模拟的方法,并基于该方法实现了组合电路软错误率分析工具.该混合模拟方法使用HSPICE模拟发生重汇聚的逻辑门;使用快速的脉冲传播算法模拟其他逻辑门.模拟结果表明,该方法可以在速度和精度上达到很好的折中.通过与国际上常用的组合电路软错误率分析工具进行比较发现,在重汇聚发生较多的电路中,该混合模拟方法更能真实地反应组合逻辑中的软错误率.     

MIMO雷达弹头目标微动模型及微多普勒效应

弹头目标识别是弹道导弹防御系统中最为关键的技术之一。将多输入多输出(MIMO)雷达技术和微多普勒特征分析技术引入弹道中段目标识别,可有效克服弹头隐身技术和有源干扰技术等对识别带来的困难,提高识别精度。建立了MIMO雷达中弹头目标的微动模型,给出了弹头自旋、锥旋和进动引起的微多普勒效应的参数化表达,并通过对仿真回波数据进行时频分析验证了理论分析的正确性,为弹头目标的准确识别提供了新的理论依据。     

基于级库存的维修器材整合供应策略研究

针对传统器材供应模式效率低的问题,借助供应链管理的思想提出了多需求点整合供应模式,并建立了基于级库存策略的整合优化模型,对成本各组成部分分析求解,得到了最优总成本对应的策略参数,其中总成本考虑了供应中心补货成本、库存持有成本、供应成本和供应延迟成本．最后通过算例与直接供应策略进行了比较,证明了整合供应策略的有效性．     

空战截击引导航线自动生成算法研究

以等角航线作为截击引导航线计算的基础,研究了满足战术要求的截击引导航线自动生成方法,提出了基于前置点滑动搜索的截击引导航线优化生成算法（LPMSOA,lead-point moving search optimal algorithm)。LPMSOA算法采用二分搜索思想,以到达时间差为优化准则,通过对预定敌机前置点的滑动搜索来寻找最优前置点,通过飞行航迹长度最小化获得最短截击时间,在此基础上对最优截击引导航线进行解算。仿真实验表明,LPMSOA能有效解决空战截击引导航线自动生成问题,算法实时性强,计算精度高。     

基于双向启发式属性约简的战术决策建模研究

从预警机指挥引导的多机协同空战原则分析出发,针对超视距协同空战决策过程中的不确定性和不完备性问题,提出了一种不完备信息系统中的基于双向启发式属性约简的战术粗决策建模方法。首先考虑粗糙集决策过程中条件属性发生缺失或不确定的情况,根据扩展不完备信息概念建立了不完备决策信息系统的最优完备选择;其次基于分辨矩阵的属性约简算法,以属性频度的大小作为启发信息进行决策信息系统约简的双向选择,得出决策信息系统的最佳约简集合;然后依据使决策最有可能发生的原则,给出决策信息系统的最优选择,以该最优选择为代表提取出决策规则;最后根据软、硬杀伤结合使用的CGF实体超视距协同空战作战想定,建立了CGF实体综合战术决策模型,并通过作战决策实例对该方法的正确性和有效性进行了验证。结果表明：该方法能在作战态势信息不完备的情况下正确给出CGF实体综合战术行为。     

基于变异离散粒子群的协同空战攻击决策算法

为了提高智能协同空战攻击决策算法性能,将变异策略引入到DPSO(Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization)协同空战攻击决策算法中,提出了一种新的基于变异离散粒子群(Mutation Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization,MDPSO)的协同空战攻击决策算法。基于典型空战想定背景,仿真验证了算法的有效性。采用对比实验方法,基于准确性、可靠性和快速性等关键性能指标,分析比较了基于MDPSO协同空战攻击决策算法与多种智能决策算法,验证了基于MDPSO的协同空战攻击决策算法有着较好的综合性能。