The ambivalent coalition: doing the least one can do against the Islamic state

The effort to degrade and defeat the Islamic State is like many other multilateral military efforts – characterized by widely varying contributions to the effort. This article seeks to understand the patterns of contributions. Three sets of explanations are applied: the lessons of Afghanistan and Libya, variations in how potential contributors feel the threat posed by the Islamic State, and domestic political dynamics. While there may be some political processes that overlap with the big lessons and with the threat of the Islamic State, the patterns of contributions thus far suggest that the key drivers of reactions to the Islamic State are the desire not to repeat Afghanistan combined with some impetus provided by Islamic State attacks in the various homelands. The conclusion suggests some policy implications as well as some ideas for future research.     

Growth recovery after civil conflict: a fractional integration approach

Using recent econometric techniques based on fractional integration, we find that developing countries recover their economic growth faster than developed countries in response to a shock. Following this methodology, we find that longer civil conflicts are associated with a faster recovery process. We further investigate this issue by exploring correlations with components of GDP, military spending, institutions and aid and find heterogeneous effects of these channels by duration of conflict. Higher government spending is correlated with faster recoveries post longer conflicts, and higher consumption spending is linked to faster recoveries following shorter conflicts. Military spending appears to be driving the government expenditure that makes countries recover from longer conflicts. More democratic institutions are associated with faster recoveries post short wars but slower recoveries following long wars.     

The lobbies’ network at the EU policy level: the case of security and defense

Lobbyists may not share the same interests, but they usually agree to form a link in a network which could eventually be used to spread information, to search for potential partners, to speak with one voice to decision makers. In other words, social links represent value for lobbyists because they may ultimately facilitate access. In this article, we explore the network of the Security and Defense lobbies in the EU and we describe its structure.     

浅析储油罐安全容量的确定计算

由于油料具有热膨胀性,在运输和储存期间,如果油罐装油超过安全容量,当温度升高时,罐内油料体积膨胀,就可能导致溢油事故的发生,不仅造成油料数量的损失,甚至会引发火灾事故。正确确定不同油罐的安全容量,对油料的安全具有重要意义。文章阐述了油罐安全容量的概念,分析了安全容量计算不准确可能造成的危害,提出了油罐安全容量的计算方法。     

剖分T型钢轴心压杆的弯扭屈曲

《钢结构设计规范》（GB50017—2003）认为单轴对称的T型钢轴心压杆绕对称轴的稳定性是弯扭失稳问题。本次试验发现,剖分T型钢轴压杆有必要做弯扭屈曲验算,计算方法采用换算长系比法。     

网络化数字化环境下图书馆发展的核心业务——参考咨询工作

针对网络化数字化环境下图书馆参考咨询的特征,阐述由于图书馆总体业务格局的变化和工作重心的转移,参考咨询成为图书馆工作的核心,并对图书馆参考咨询专业化发展提出了建议。     

多元文化冲撞下的90后大学生德育教育刍议

90后大学生是一个极具特色的群体,文化多元与社会转型给他们的德育教育带来了很大的冲击与影响。本文结合多元文化影响下的90后大学生思想特征,提出相应的对策,以期为深入开展大学生德育教育提供依据。     

Properties of a mean residual life function arising from renewal theory

The present article discusses the properties of the mean residual life function in a renewal process. We examine the relationship this function has with the failure rate function and the conventional mean, variance and coefficient of variation of residual life. We also discuss some monotonicity properties of the mean residual life function. A partial order based on the renewal mean residual function is introduced along with its interrelationship with some existing stochastic orders. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Threshold incentives over multiple periods and the sales hockey stick phenomenon

In this article, we study threshold‐based sales‐force incentives and their impact on a dealer's optimal effort. A phenomenon, observed in practice, is that the dealer exerts a large effort toward the end of the incentive period to boost sales and reach the threshold to make additional profits. In the literature, the resulting last‐period sales spike is sometimes called the hockey stick phenomenon (HSP). In this article, we show that the manufacturer's choice of the incentive parameters and the underlying demand uncertainty affect the dealer's optimal effort choice. This results in the sales HSP over multiple time periods even when there is a cost associated with waiting. We then show that, by linking the threshold to a correlated market signal, the HSP can be regulated. We also characterize the variance of the total sales across all the periods and demonstrate conditions under the sales variance can be reduced. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010