Fire truck relocation during major incidents

The effectiveness of a fire department is largely determined by its ability to respond to incidents in a timely manner. To do so, fire departments typically have fire stations spread evenly across the region, and dispatch the closest truck(s) whenever a new incident occurs. However, large gaps in coverage may arise in the case of a major incident that requires many nearby fire trucks over a long period of time, substantially increasing response times for emergencies that occur subsequently. We propose a heuristic for relocating idle trucks during a major incident in order to retain good coverage. This is done by solving a mathematical program that takes into account the location of the available fire trucks and the historic spatial distribution of incidents. This heuristic allows the user to balance the coverage and the number of truck movements. Using extensive simulation experiments we test the heuristic for the operations of the Fire Department of Amsterdam‐Amstelland, and compare it against three other benchmark strategies in a simulation fitted using 10 years of historical data. We demonstrate substantial improvement over the current relocation policy, and show that not relocating during major incidents may lead to a significant decrease in performance.     

Optimal control policies for an inventory system with commitment lead time

We consider a firm which faces a Poisson customer demand and uses a base‐stock policy to replenish its inventories from an outside supplier with a fixed lead time. The firm can use a preorder strategy which allows the customers to place their orders before their actual need. The time from a customer's order until the date a product is actually needed is called commitment lead time. The firm pays a commitment cost which is strictly increasing and convex in the length of the commitment lead time. For such a system, we prove the optimality of bang‐bang and all‐or‐nothing policies for the commitment lead time and the base‐stock policy, respectively. We study the case where the commitment cost is linear in the length of the commitment lead time in detail. We show that there exists a unit commitment cost threshold which dictates the optimality of either a buy‐to‐order (BTO) or a buy‐to‐stock strategy. The unit commitment cost threshold is increasing in the unit holding and backordering costs and decreasing in the mean lead time demand. We determine the conditions on the unit commitment cost for profitability of the BTO strategy and study the case with a compound Poisson customer demand.     

Violence and the state: Lessons from Colombia

Whether or not Colombia has improved is a controversial topic. If improvement has occurred, what, if any, lessons from the Colombian model can be learned? The first lesson is that Colombia's problems were caused more by a weak state than by drugs. The second lesson is that improving state capacity requires more than just increased security. The state must also provide the basic social services that citizens require to gain and maintain their support. Additionally, government institutions need to improve their professionalism, protect human rights, and root out impunity and corruption. The alternative is to suffer from new cycles of violence as old foes are vanquished, but new ones emerge.     

某型火箭弹对巡航导弹毁伤概率仿真分析

通过对巡航导弹目标特性分析,论述了目标易损性和毁伤机理(包括破片战斗部对目标的击穿概率模型)。利用破片初速及存速计算模型,分析了战斗部爆破后破片速度衰减规律,并做了模拟仿真,为火箭弹战斗部设计及毁伤效能评估提供了理论依据。最后根据射弹散布规律及毁伤原理建立了毁伤模型,并以某型火箭弹为例,对毁伤概率模型进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明:该方法为火箭弹战斗部设计和提高对巡航导弹毁伤概率提供了参考。     

航空兵干扰声纳浮标与反潜飞机通信的方法与效能研究

为了提高潜艇规避声纳浮标搜索的能力,提出了航空兵以压制方式干扰声纳浮标与载机之间通信的思路与需求,基于有效压制区分析结论研究了干扰兵力的配置问题,建立了干扰效能评估模型,得到了干扰机与反潜飞机、声纳浮标应当保持的位置关系等增强干扰效果的结论。所得结论表明,为增强干扰效果,干扰机应与反潜飞机、声纳浮标保持在一条直线上,并与反潜飞机保持同步运动状态;在同一干通比下,干扰机与声纳浮标间的距离越小越好;在同一距离下,干通比越大越好。该结论可为航空兵以压制干扰方式支援潜艇摆脱反潜航空兵声纳浮标搜索与跟踪提供理论支撑。     

基于点模式匹配的雷达航迹与航行计划匹配算法

在雷达航迹与航行计划匹配时,针对传统算法对单点信息依赖程度较高,在信息缺失、目标机动等情况下匹配效果差的问题,提出了一种基于滑窗的改进点模式匹配算法。首先,提取了雷达航迹多特征点,利用特征点集弥补单点信息的不足,通过简化匹配分数的计算,降低了点模式匹配复杂度。仿真实验结果表明,改进的点模式匹配算法显著提高了信息缺失、目标机动等情况下的匹配正确率。     

基于门限偶极子模型的四轮车变速度轨迹跟踪控制

针对利用李亚普诺夫函数控制律设计的轨迹跟踪控制器在跟踪初始误差较大和离散轨迹时,存在速度跳变问题和拐点处误差偏大的问题,设计了一种基于门限偶极子模型和趋向模型的变速度轨迹跟踪控制器。以四轮车的运动学模型为研究对象,在李亚普诺夫函数控制律的基础上,引入门限偶极子模型解决了初始误差较大速度跳变问题,同时引入纵向控制中的趋向模型,解决了不连续轨迹拐点处误差偏大的问题,使得跟踪轨迹更为光滑,进一步提高了跟踪精度。通过仿真结果对比分析,验证了改进控制器的有效性。     

电力谐波及其对电能计量的影响

非线性用户的增多,使电网中谐波含量不断增加,对电能准确计量带来较大影响。针对上述情况,首先叙述了谐波的主要来源,从计量仪表的频率特性曲线角度,分析了谐波条件下感应式电能表和电子式电能表的误差变化情况,指出现有计量方式的不足,提出了改进计量方式的措施。     

四种螺线管型爆磁压缩发生器的实验研究

实验研究了四种螺线管型爆磁压缩发生器,给出了其主要实验结果和结论。     

低压终端线路无功补偿技术

随着经济发展,低压终端线路,特别是住宅负荷中,无功需求急剧增加。基于这一现状,提出了低压终端线路无功补偿问题。分析探讨了终端无功补偿设备与传统补偿设备的差异及应具的技术和特色,构划了系统总体设计方案,明确了该装置开发研究中应关注的主要问题及处理措施,指出开发专门终端无功补偿的必要性和紧迫性,为低压终端线路补偿装置的研制奠定了基础。