从《中导条约》的失效看未来国际军控走向

《美苏消除两国中程导弹和中短程导弹条约》的失效重创了本就脆弱的国际军控体系,对美俄战略稳定和全球军事安全带来消极影响,国际军控合作和全球军事安全迫切需要重构新的军控体系。本文立足当前国际军控现状,在分析美俄“退约”背后各方战略考量及国际军控面临的挑战,如“美国优先”理念下的霸权主义和单边主义、国际军控体系自身的脆弱性和局限性和新军事革命给全球安全增添新的变量的基础上,提出了“构建人类命运共同体”理念凝聚全球安全共识、以大国责任和义务为基础构建多层次军控体系和以多边军控体系循序推进国际军控进程等措施和建议,以期为推动国际军控合作,建立更为公平、合理、有效的国际军控体系做出贡献。     

On Government-industry Nexus and Indigenous Armed Resistance

This paper proposes a simple game-theoretic framework for analyzing the relationship between the government, industry and indigenous community, especially in the context of mounting violence surrounding displacement of indigenous communities by governments for the purposes of commercial use of their habitat. It specifically takes into account the possibility of alleged ‘nexus’ between the government and the industry and explores its implications on the level of allocation and utilities of the players. We find that the bias in allocation that occurs when the government and the industry enter a ‘nexus’ can be rectified when there is resistance from the indigenous groups. Moreover, rebellion is a dominant strategy of the indigenous community, irrespective of whether there is ‘nexus’ or not, and being in ‘nexus’ with the government is a best response for the industry. The unique SPNE occurs when there is ‘nexus’ between the industry and the government and resistance by the indigenous groups, corroborating the widespread allegations of ‘nexus’ and evidence of resistance worldwide. We also explore a few extensions of the basic model and present some narrative evidence in support of the theoretical model.     

浅谈武警部队财务信息化建设

结合笔者工作实践,对武警部队实施财务信息化管理的现状和问题进行了简要归纳和总结,并着重对武警部队如何顺利推进财务管理信息化提出了建议和意见。     

声纹鉴别及其应用

声纹是人说话声音的频谱图 ,由于人的个性 ,决定了不同人声纹的差异性 ,因此 ,声纹识别或声纹鉴定能够确定说话人的身份。声纹鉴别在很多领域有着广泛的应用价值和前景 ,这里 ,简单介绍声纹和声纹鉴定与识别的概念及其应用的历史与现状 ,探讨声纹鉴别的方法原理和步骤 ,讨论声纹鉴别在个人身份证明、刑事侦察、军事、通信、防伪等领域的应用 ,展望声纹鉴别的应用前景。     

面空导弹武器系统软件的健壮性设计

面空导弹武器系统软件的健壮性设计是软件开发工作的核心问题之一。首先介绍了面空导弹武器系统软件的特点并阐述了软件健壮性的内涵 ,表明它是软件可靠性、安全性和协调性均要满足的一种软件质量特性。在此基础上 ,提出了一种软件健壮性设计的概念 ,重点论述了软件可靠性设计、安全性设计和协调性设计的方法。     

舰空导弹作战使用及指挥控制

从作战使用角度出发 ,对作战使用研究的目的、细目进行了界定 ,对作战过程中作战人员的职责、作战组织、作战实施和指挥控制问题进行了剖析 ,为最终制定作战指挥程序和编制协同任务表奠定了基础。最后指出了新的研究方向     

舰空导弹综合试验与鉴定方法

从综合试验与鉴定的思路出发 ,针对舰空导弹的战术技术特点 ,建立了鉴定指标体系 ,论述了各种性能的综合试验与鉴定方法 ,并提出了需要研究的关键技术。     

Dynamic capacity reservation and due date quoting in a make‐to‐order system

We consider a make‐to‐order manufacturer facing random demand from two classes of customers. We develop an integrated model for reserving capacity in anticipation of future order arrivals from high priority customers and setting due dates for incoming orders. Our research exhibits two distinct features: (1) we explicitly model the manufacturer's uncertainty about the customers' due date preferences for future orders; and (2) we utilize a service level measure for reserving capacity rather than estimating short and long term implications of due date quoting with a penalty cost function. We identify an interesting effect (“t‐pooling”) that arises when the (partial) knowledge of customer due date preferences is utilized in making capacity reservation and order allocation decisions. We characterize the relationship between the customer due date preferences and the required reservation quantities and show that not considering the t‐pooling effect (as done in traditional capacity and inventory rationing literature) leads to excessive capacity reservations. Numerical analyses are conducted to investigate the behavior and performance of our capacity reservation and due date quoting approach in a dynamic setting with multiple planning horizons and roll‐overs. One interesting and seemingly counterintuitive finding of our analyses is that under certain conditions reserving capacity for high priority customers not only improves high priority fulfillment, but also increases the overall system fill rate. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

A Question of ‘Government’ Control: Afghanistan DDR Programs Since 2001

Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA), the United States, the United Nations, and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have funded and led three different Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs. Despite a significant investment in time and treasure, all of them have failed to significantly reduce the number of insurgents or arbaki (militia). This article explores why these programs failed despite incorporating ideas from the prominent DDR schools of thought. Utilizing Stathis Kalyvas’ theory of The Logic of Violence in Civil War as a lens, this article argues that GIRoA and ISAF did not have sufficient control of territory to entice insurgents or arbaki to reconcile and/or reintegrate with the government. Further, in areas GIRoA nominally controlled in northern and western Afghanistan, regional powerbrokers who controlled these areas balked at these programs.     

大力弘扬改革创新时代精神 加快建设世界一流高等教育院校

习主席在庆祝改革开放40周年大会上的重要讲话,是新时代改革开放再出发的宣言书和动员令。学习贯彻习主席重要讲话精神,关键要全面推进学校深化改革创新,深刻认清弘扬改革创新精神对于建设世界一流高等教育院校的重大意义,牢牢扭住全面深化改革创新的主攻方向,科学处理深化改革创新的重大关系,既以顽强的战略定力坚定不移深化改革,又运用科学的工作方法积极稳妥地推进改革。