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As a complex system with multiple components usually deteriorates with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to keep the system functioning in a good state to prolong its effective age. In this study, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deterioration of a repairable system, and the optimal nonperiodic PM schedule can be determined to minimize the expected total cost per unit time. However, since the determination of such optimal PM policies may involve numerous uncertainties, which typically make the analyses difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data, a Bayesian decision model, which utilizes all available information effectively, is also proposed for determining the optimal PM strategies. A numerical example with a real failure data set is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimal schedules derived by Bayesian approach are relatively more conservative than that for non‐Bayesian approach because of the uncertainty of the intensity function, and if the intensity function are updated using the collected data set, which indicates more severe deterioration than the prior belief, replacing the entire system instead of frequent PM activities before serious deterioration is suggested. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010 相似文献
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结合美国在近几年的几次局部战争中所使用的高科技的信息化武器装备、远程作战武器和精确打击武器等武器装备,研究分析了高科技武器装备的发展动态,促进产生了一些新的作战理念(战术战法、作战理论),如网络中心战、夺取制信息权、非对称作战和非线性作战,而新的作战理念又推动了高科技武器装备的完善和进一步发展。同时还分析了高科技武器装备目前尚存在的一些不足。 相似文献
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贾希胜 《军械工程学院学报》1990,(1)
以可靠性为中心的维修(Reliability Centered maintenance——RCM)是美国航空界和美国防部制订装备预防维修大纲时所使用的一种维修理论,其主要目的是以最低的费用保持复杂装备的固有可靠性水平。本文跟踪RCM的发展过程,简述其基本原理和基本内容,并在综述国内外有关文献的基础上提出了笔者对RCM的认识及在军械系统应用RCM的必要性。 相似文献
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邓渠明 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2011,(8):49-51
近年来,随着EPS相关产业迅速发展,该类场所的火灾发生率也呈逐年上升趋势。由于EPS泡沫塑料属于可燃物质,其表面易积聚静电,在生产过程中,稍有疏忽,容易引发火灾事故。分析归纳了该场所火灾的成因,就该类场所如何消除火灾隐患,防患于未然,提出了相关建议。 相似文献
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张颖 《武警工程学院学报》2012,(5):30-33
近代以来,在西方列强坚船利炮的重创之下,中华民族在军事上接连失败。在严酷的现实面前,中华民族流传两千多年的传统战争哲学理念,受到了前所未有的挑战。在近代战争的冲击下,中国传统战争哲学理念开始了缓慢的嬗变历程。主要表现为三点:“避战求和”理念的破产与激变;“义战必胜”理念的质疑与超越;“道器合一”理念的背离与回归。 相似文献
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针对非战争军事行动装备保障能力评价问题,综合运用能力模型和集对分析理论,在构建非战争军事行动装备保障能力评价指标体系基础上,建立非战争军事行动装备保障能力四元联系数评价模型,并示例说明该方法的应用. 相似文献
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Thomas A. Marks 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2017,28(1):81-118
During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times. 相似文献