一种确定检测时间的方法

在许多作为侦察用的无源传感器只报出其检测结果时,利用此传感器一系列检测报告确定被检测目标何时进入及何时离开此传感器检测区域,成为解决决策级信尽融合问题的关键。本文讨论了一种利用序贯分析方法计算检测时间的近似方法。     

一个组合对策问题的解

本文求解如下的组合对策问题:设有一堆棋子,总数N 是奇数,甲乙两人轮流取子,每人每次可取一颗、二颗,最多可取s 颗,但不能不取,直至取完后分别来数甲乙两人所取棋子的总数,总数为奇数者获胜。站在甲的立场上考虑获胜的策略,文中解决了如下两个问题:(Ⅰ)总数N 应是什么样的奇数,甲才有获胜策略;(Ⅱ)当N 一定时,甲应采取什么样的策略取子,才能获胜。     

使用等效偏移角稀疏测量的面阵相机序贯图像几何校正

天基光学相机实际在轨对地观测成像的畸变需通过几何校正抑制。目前主流面阵相机对地观测获得的小尺寸、高帧频序贯图像很难满足传统几何校正方法逐帧解算对单帧图像控制点数量与空域分布的要求且计算量巨大。针对这一问题,提出一种使用等效偏移角稀疏测量的面阵相机序贯观测图像几何校正方法,将逐帧校正参数解算问题转化为时域稀疏测量条件下等效偏移角信号恢复问题,利用等效偏移角信号时频信息可有效降低对单帧图像控制点数量和空域分布要求。通过高分四号卫星面阵相机在轨实测图像数据验证了所提方法的可行性且其能大大降低序贯图像几何校正处理的计算量。     

军事虚拟仓库组织结构的博弈分析

简要介绍了军事虚拟仓库及其组织结构形式．以及博弈论的相关知识。结合军事后勤系统的特点,采用完全信息静态博弈纳什均衡的方法分析了军事虚拟仓库的组织结构模式,在假设的合理的条件下模拟3种组织形式的博弈过程。通过各个模型的最终纳什均衡,指出了3种组织结构形式运作的结果和其积极因素、消极因素、噪声构成．结合我军现有的后勤保障体制,提出现行保障体制的合理与不合理的地方,并给出了改进方案,对优化全军后方仓库布局及管理和战备物资储备及应急保障有着重要意义,可以为总部决策提供咨询建议。     

高铁大风预警模式挖掘

高铁大风预警的传统方法基于风速预测,当瞬时值高于限速阈值时触发报警,存在大量的误报警,不必要的限速控制影响了高铁行车效率。创新地提出了基于序列模式的预警方法,旨在挖掘报警事件前序数据中的频繁模式,找出报警事件的变化规律,通过滤除与非预警序列共有的频繁模式,得到预警序列独有的序列特征,构建了预警模式库。经兰新高铁沿线的监测数据验证,该方法在提高预测准确率的基础上降低了漏报率,同时有效地减少了模式匹配所需的时间,为提前预警预留充分的时间窗口,更加符合实际应用的需求。     

Supply chain coordination with product line design and a revenue sharing scheme

Many manufacturers sell their products through retailers and share the revenue with those retailers. Given this phenomenon, we build a stylized model to investigate the role of revenue sharing schemes in supply chain coordination and product variety decisions. In our model, a monopolistic manufacturer serves two segments of consumers, which are distinguished by their willingness to pay for quality. In the scenario with exogenous revenue sharing ratios, when the potential gain from serving the low segment is substantial (e.g., the low‐segment consumers' willingness to pay is high enough or the low segment takes a large enough proportion of the market), the retailer is better off abandoning the revenue sharing scheme. Moreover, when the potential gain from serving the low (high) segment is substantial enough, the manufacturer finds it profitable to offer a single product. Furthermore, when revenue sharing ratios are endogenous, we divide our analysis into two cases, depending on the methods of cooperation. When revenue sharing ratios are negotiated at the very beginning, the decentralized supply chain causes further distortion. This suggests that the central premise of revenue sharing—the coordination of supply chains—may be undermined if supply chain parties meticulously bargain over it.     

基于博弈论的装备科研、购置、维修经费比例关系优化分析

通过不同时期国家战略部署、科研发展情况及经济承受能力对装备经费分配的影响分析,采用博弈的方法,建立了装备科研、购置和维修费之间的比例关系优化模型,给出了寻求纳什均衡点的迭代算法,并进行了仿真计算.仿真结果证明了该方法的可行性与正确性.     

装备采办中的讨价还价博弈模型

竞争性谈判是一种重要的武器装备采办方式,军方与承包商之间的谈判是一个重复博弈过程,双方谈判的本质是讨价还价。分析了轮流出价的讨价还价模型,对轮流出价博弈的子博弈精炼均衡进行了论述;在轮流出价模型的基础上建立了同时出价的讨价还价模型,并对2种模型的特点进行了分析;通过案例对2个模型的均衡结果进行了对比。分析结果显示：同时出价的讨价还价模型更能有效解决实际问题,更具有现实意义。     

An integrated electric power supply chain and fuel market network framework: Theoretical modeling with empirical analysis for New England

In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Information security: Designing a stochastic‐network for throughput and reliability

Todas information and communication network requires a design that is secure to tampering. Traditional performance measures of reliability and throughput must be supplemented with measures of security. Recognition of an adversary who can inflict damage leads toward a game‐theoretic model. Through such a formulation, guidelines for network designs and improvements are derived. We opt for a design that is most robust to withstand both natural degradation and adversarial attacks. Extensive computational experience with such a model suggests that a Nash‐equilibrium design exists that can withstand the worst possible damage. Most important, the equilibrium is value‐free in that it is stable irrespective of the unit costs associated with reliability vs. capacity improvement and how one wishes to trade between throughput and reliability. This finding helps to pinpoint the most critical components in network design. From a policy standpoint, the model also allows the monetary value of information‐security to be imputed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009