Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States’ case

Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using a dynamic cost‐function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure without output data for non‐market goods that are normally unavailable. Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are larger in disarmament than in military build‐up; (iii) due to the adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence budget.     

Reforming the notion of national sovereignty by external intervention

In principle, national sovereignty is the right of a nation to govern its internal affairs without foreign interference. In practice, it is defined by one's interpretation of international law, which may permit legal external intervention under some circumstances, ultimately removing a nation's sovereignty. This paper will examine the current system of international law outlined by the United Nations, analyse the ambiguities contained within its Charter and elaborate on how external intervention can be justified. The case-study of recent developments related to Libya will demonstrate that the manner in which international law is interpreted is changing the notion of principles of sovereignty.     

海洋内孤立波时空仿真分析

目前对于内波传播有很多研究方法,虽然总结了很多内波传播的特性,但很少对内波传播特性全面的总结,因此,从内波KDV方程出发,利用椭圆函数展开进行求解,结合垂向模态函数对内波水下结构进行仿真,同时对内波水平流与垂直流在空间与时间上的分布进行分析,总结了内孤立波传播特性,为内波系统的研究提供理论基础。     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

公安边防部队遂行边境封控任务探究

边境封控行动事关国家安全和社会稳定大局,已成为新的历史条件下公安边防部队重要的职能和任务。分析公安边防部队边境封控行动的主要任务,探讨边境封控行动的特点和原则,提出公安边防部队边境封控行动的主要方法。     

语料库在翻译课程“教”与“学”中的重要性研究

高校翻译课程的设置是为了让学生掌握翻译相关的知识和技能,发展翻译能力,除了传统的教学方法外,将双语语料库的辅助方法引入翻译课堂,利用其对齐和检索功能为学生提供大量真实的翻译对照文本,无疑对学生会有很大的启发和帮助。文章通过对语料库重要性的研究,阐述其对翻译课程的"教"与"学"所起到的作用及其重要性,真正实现student-centered的教学模式和task-based的课堂实践。     

兵团音乐的创作机制、题材类型与思想教育功能

"兵团音乐"这一语辞包含区域、主题、风格、功能、情感等多重属性。本论文尝试从兵团音乐的特质、兵团音乐创作机制的类型、兵团音乐创作主题的类型三方面来阐释兵团音乐的思想教育功能。     

要地防空指挥控制系统作战效能灰色聚类评估

建立要地防空指挥控制系统作战效能评估指标体系,运用层次分析法确定各层次指标权重,提出了一种基于灰色定聚类和中心点三角白化权函数的要地防空指挥控制系统作战效能灰色聚类评估方法,并通过算例对该方法的有效性进行了检验。结果表明该方法是切实可行的。     

基于备件需求预测的两步法理论

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

基于随机拟合的悬浮式深弹弹阵特征建模＊

通过分析悬浮式深弹发射后在空中的弹道特性,建立了深弹弹着点坐标的计算模型。采取蒙特卡洛方法,分别对舰艇六自由度状态下,单管和六联装火箭深弹的弹着点坐标进行了仿真计算,对弹着点的分布规律进行了研究,并得出弹着点的联合密度函数。结果表明,在发射参数存在正态扰动时,弹着点散布区域均呈椭圆形分布,弹着点坐标均仍服从正态分布。