基于灰色神经网络武器装备研制费用预测模型

提出了基于灰色系统理论与神经网络的武器装备研制费用组合预测模型,该模型首先采用灰色GM(0,N)模型对研制费用进行预测,利用LMBP神经网络对预测误差进行了模拟与修正,实例验证该方法具有较高的预测精度.     

System reliability based on diffusion models for fatigue crack growth

Diffusion processes are commonly used to describe the dynamics of complex systems arising in a wide range of application fields. In this paper we propose, on the basis of diffusion processes, two models concerned with the stochastic behavior of fatigue cracks in a system. They are then used to get the distribution of the failure time, the first time the crack size of at least one of the cracks exceeds a given value. Several properties of our proposed models are presented, and the unknown parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. From these an estimate of failure time distribution is obtained. In this part, contrary to common practice, we do not assume availability of failure data. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Diversionary Tactics and the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000)

Diversionary theories of war suggest that leaders may engage in bellicose foreign policies to divert the public’s attention from domestic problems and capitalize on a ‘rally around the flag’ type of effect. The evidence regarding diversionary theory is quite mixed. More recently, scholars have focused on situations that create opportunities for diversionary behavior, such as international rivalry and territorial disputes. This paper adds to the growing literature on diversionary conflict by considering the Ethiopia–Eritrea case and applying an opportunity-based approach. We assess whether the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000) is consistent with diversionary explanations for the war, as many have previously claimed.     

Rethinking military behavior during the Arab Spring

Why did some Arab militaries remain loyal to authoritarian rulers amid mass uprisings during the Arab Spring while others defected to the opposition? One popular explanation shows this variation with reference to the degree of military institutionalization: institutionalized militaries defected, while patrimonial militaries remained loyal. This article argues that the institutionalization hypothesis does not provide a complete account of the mechanisms through which the degree of military institutionalization leads to either defection or continued loyalty. This shortcoming stems from the fact that scholars have treated military institutionalization as a catch-all concept for three distinct variables: ethnic stacking of the military, patronage distribution, and organizational factionalization. Examining the interaction between these variables highlights the mechanisms through which military defection occurs, and therefore that disaggregating institutionalization into its component parts provides a more complete explanation of military behavior during the Arab Spring.     

气球载雷达支援抗击巡航导弹作战军事概念建模

针对地基预警雷达单独预警巡航导弹发现距离近和跟踪目标困难的问题,提出了气球载雷达与地基预警雷达协同预警。按照军事概念建模的方法,建立了气球载雷达与地基预警雷达反巡航导弹(Cruise Missile,CM)的预警协同模式。在此基础上,建立了IDEF0功能模型。通过对IDEF0功能模型的理解,转换为作战仿真软件开发所需各类UML模型。从技术上验证了气球载雷达与地基预警雷达反CM预警协同作战的可行性,对其仿真实现有一定的参考价值。     

基于整数规划的地地导弹打击目标优化选取

地地战役战术导弹火力运用中,对导弹打击目标的选取是导弹部队制定合理科学作战方案所面临的现实问题。针对给定弹量和特定作战意图对打击目标进行优化选择问题,运用0-1型整数规划,建立合理的数学模型并确定最优打击目标。通过应用实例表明,此方法简便易行,可操作性较强,具有一定的实用价值。     

Threats and civil–military relations: explaining Singapore’s “trickle down” military innovation

This article explains why Singapore, despite its small size and semi-authoritarian regime, retains one of the best military forces in the Indo-Pacific. It unpacks Singapore’s ability to continuously innovate since the 1960s – technologically, organizationally, and conceptually – and even recently joined the Revolution in Military Affairs bandwagon. Drawing from the broader military innovation studies literature, this article argues evolutionary peacetime military innovation is more likely to occur in a state with a unified civil–military relation and whose military faces a high-level diverse set of threats. This argument explains how the civil–military fusion under the People’s Action Party-led government since Singapore’s founding moment has been providing coherent and consistent strategic guidance, political support, and financial capital, allowing the Singapore Armed Forces to continuously innovate in response to high levels and diversity of threats.     

基于有限条件的多波束雷达干扰系统目标分配算法

针对多波束干扰系统同时干扰多个目标的资源分配问题,通过分析目标分配算法的一般流程及涉及到的关键问题和技术难题,提出了基于实战化和有限条件的针对多波束干扰系统的非线性0-1整数规划数学模型。针对该模型采取开源软件SCIP进行求解,最后给出数值仿真来说明模型和算法的有效性。     

舰载电子装备综合维修保障系统研究

舰员级维修保障是舰艇维修保障体系中的重要部分,为提高舰员级维修保障水平提出了利用信息管理和专家系统技术建立舰载电子装备综合维修保障系统的思路和技术方案,并结合某类设备提出了建立综合维修保障系统的框架.     

Radar pulse interleaving for multi‐target tracking

In a multifunction radar, the maximum number of targets that can be managed or tracked is an important performance measure. Interleaving algorithms developed to operate radars exploit the dead‐times between the transmitted and the received pulses to allocate new tracking tasks that might involve transmitting or receiving pulses, thus increasing the capacity of the system. The problem of interleaving N targets involves a search among N! possibilities, and suboptimal solutions are usually employed to satisfy the real‐time constraints of the radar system. In this paper, we present new tight 0–1 integer programming models for the radar pulse interleaving problem and develop effective solution methods based on Lagrangian relaxation techniques. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.