Defence R&D expenditure: The crowding-out hypothesis

The impact of defence expenditure on the economy has been widely studied through different types of models. However, the results from these studies have not reached definitive conclusions, and have left a gap in the analysis of the impact of defence R&D expenditure at the economy level. Defence R&D has specific characteristics, which lead to market failures: public good, high risk and uncertainty, national security. Also, defence R&D creates two types of externalities: negative (crowding-out), and positive (spin-off). Crowding-out is the major economic debate about defence R&D. This paper analyses the crowding-out hypothesis by applying three types of models for the UK case: supply, demand, and demand-supply models. From these three models the most reliable is chosen and applied to the individual cases of France, Germany, Japan and USA. The paper also reports the results for the pooled data of these five countries, and for four error component models. The results from estimating such models shed light on the defence R&D crowding-out hypothesis.     

ON THE CHOICE OF MULTI-TASK R&D DEFENSE PROJECTS: A CASE STUDY OF The ISRAELI MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM

Investments in R&D constitute a major share of the expenditures of the hi-tech industry since, generally, they enable firms to successfully compete in the rapidly and constantly changing markets for hi-tech products and services. The role of R&D projects is particularly important in the areas of defense and homeland security due to the nature of warfare and the continuous threats posed by arms races and by terror organizations. This study analyzes the choice of the R&D projects designed to counter multiple related military threats. It develops the methodology required to assess whether it is preferable to develop one project to thwart several related threats, or several distinct projects, each of which provides an answer to one specific threat or a partial set of the threats. An analytic solution is provided and assessed for two simple models with two related threats. A solution of the model is then provided for any number of related threats, using a dynamic programming methodology. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our model and methodology to Israel’s missile defense problem; that is, we show how to optimally develop systems aimed at thwarting the multiple threats of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles.     

MONEY IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN POLITICS

“Lack of money is the root of all evil”

George Bernard Shaw

In a environment where party financing, private funding in particular, is generally a laissez-faire business, as in most Southern African countries, there is the real risk that interest groups and wealthy individuals will buy influence in political parties and in so doing erode public confidence in the political system. Because they are neither open to public scrutiny nor subject to any legislative restraints, huge private donations can, and often do, come with strings attached. This lack of transparency and openness, as well as mechanisms to prevent it, provides ample ground for influence peddling, where those who pay the piper call the tune. Left unchecked, this party funding scenario will continue to be a serious indictment of the region's democratisation projects, crippling democracy and stunting economic development. This article consid     

基于云理论一二元语义的雷达装备保障指挥效能评估模型

针对云重心和云模型评判方法存在的信息丢失、难于评判以及信息扭曲等问题,从确定权重等级、评价集和评价结果3个方面对模型进行了改进和完善．应用二元语义确定指标权重,避免了评价信息的丢失和扭曲,采用综合云的思想确定评价集,充分利用评价者给出的信息,简化相似云的理论来定量衡量评价结果,从而建立了基于云理论一二元语义的雷达装备保障指挥效能评估模型．     

基于效果的炮兵行动C2系统动力学建模与仿真

一体化联合作战参战军兵种多、指挥控制(C2)与协调复杂。围绕炮兵行动特点要求,运用系统动力学理论建立联合作战炮兵行动指挥控制的系统动力学模型,研究常规打击和基于效果作战两种指挥控制模式下炮兵行动所产生的不同结果及其原因,并给合作战想定仿真验证,得出较为可靠的结论,为解决联合作战炮兵行动精确指挥控制与协调提供一种有效途径     

DoDAF的末段反导C2BM系统需求分析

末段反导指控与作战管理(Command,Control and Battle Manangement,C2BM)系统是末段反导系统的指挥控制中心.在系统分析末段反导系统的组成及末段反导C2BM系统工作过程的基础上,初步探讨了基于DoDAF(Department of Defense Architecture Framework)的末段反导C2BM系统需求分析方法和步骤,建立了末段反导C2BM系统的作战视图,对末段反导C2BM系统的体系结构及其信息交互进行了深入分析和可视化建模,保证了对末段反导C2BM系统需求理解的一致性,有效促进了军事人员与分析设计人员间的沟通和交流,为后续的开发夯实坚实的基础.     

基于DM2的体系结构可执行模型构建方法

基于元模型的体系结构设计思想和基于可执行模型的评估方法是体系结构领域研究的两个热点,但当前的研究没有将两者结合起来。文章基于DoDAF2.0提出的元模型数据(Meta-Model Data,DM2),将元模型的思想和基于可执行模型的评估方法相结合,分析了基于DM2的逻辑数据与可执行模型各构建要素的对应关系,构建了基于DM2的逻辑数据模型直接转可执行模型的过程框架,重点研究了如何直接从体系结构底层数据转可执行模型的方法,从而为进行基于元模型的体系结构可执行评估提供模型基础,也为进一步实现体系结构自动化验证评估提供技术支持。实例验证了文章提出的方法。     

面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统体系结构框架

一体化联合作战和基于信息系统的体系作战对海战场指挥信息系统提出了更高的要求.从面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统构建需求出发,在军事信息服务定义的基础上,利用SOA和P2P设计了海战场指挥信息系统体系结构的物理框架和功能框架,给出了各框架的组成和结构,并与已有框架作了对比分析,结果表明所提的框架更加全面、可靠和灵活,为开展面向服务的指挥信息系统研究打下了坚实的基础.     

新一代指挥信息系统中的语义网应用能力分析

随着现代战争形式的演变,提升指挥信息系统能力的关键在于信息处理.语义网是一种先进的信息表示方法,能够有效地提升机器的信息理解和处理能力.简要介绍了语义网技术的组成和本质能力,并结合美军的研究实例,分析了其在新一代指挥信息系统中的应用能力,指出了发展机遇和挑战,并对未来研究提出了建议.