基于单一聚类方法的航空器相撞HFACS诱发模式分析

为了有效防控航空器相撞事故的发生,保证航空系统安全、有序和高效运行,提出一种基于单一聚类过程的人为因素分析分类系统(HFACS)诱发模式分析方法。在该方法中,首先,根据航空器相撞的具体特点建立了HFACS。然后,利用HFACS对发生的航空器相撞事故/事故征候进行量化,构建历史信息的数据表。最后,采用单一聚类方法对得到的数据表进行诱发模式分析,识别出重要的诱发模式及模式中包含的重要影响因素,并据此提出防相撞的管控措施。实例分析表明,所提出方法的实现过程简便,定性定量结合,形式易于理解,分析结果也更加贴近实际,对于提升防相撞的管理和决策水平,防范航空器相撞及减少造成的损失具有重要的实用价值。     

A hybrid method for simulation factor screening

Factor screening is performed to eliminate unimportant factors so that the remaining important factors can be more thoroughly studied in later experiments. Controlled sequential bifurcation (CSB) and controlled sequential factorial design (CSFD) are two new screening methods for discrete‐event simulations. Both methods use hypothesis testing procedures to control the Type I Error and power of the screening results. The scenarios for which each method is most efficient are complementary. This study proposes a two‐stage hybrid approach that combines CSFD and an improved CSB called CSB‐X. In Phase 1, a prescreening procedure will estimate each effect and determine whether CSB‐X or CSFD will be used for further screening. In Phase 2, CSB‐X and CSFD are performed separately based on the assignment of Phase 1. The new method usually has the same error control as CSB‐X and CSFD. The efficiency, on the other hand, is usually much better than either component method. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

一种消除直线永磁无刷直流电机边端效应对换相时机影响的方法

电磁弹射用直线永磁无刷直流电机的永磁体动子具有开断结构,使动子边端的磁场分布发生变形。当采用霍尔元件检测磁场实现换相时,这种边端效应就会影响换相时机。分析了这类电机的换相机理和动子开断结构对换相时机的影响,指出这类边端效应受极弧系数影响显著,并提出了利用不对称滞环比较器或简易单限比较器对霍尔输出信号进行处理从而消除这类边端效应影响的方法,实验验证了简易单限比较器方案的可行性。     

Adaptive fault-tolerant control based on boundary estimation for space robot under joint actuator faults and uncertain parameters

Since the joint actuator of the space robot executes the control instructions frequently in the harsh space environment, it is prone to the partial loss of control effectiveness (PLCE) fault. An adaptive fault-tolerant control algorithm is designed for a space robot system with the uncertain parameters and the PLCE actuator faults. The mathematical model of the system is established based on the Lagrange method, and the PLCE actuator fault is described as an effectiveness factor. The lower bound of the effectiveness factors and the upper bound of the uncertain parameters are estimated by an adaptive strategy, and the estimated value is fed back to the control algorithm. Compared with the traditional fault-tolerant algorithms, the proposed algorithm does not need to predetermine the lower bound of the effectiveness factor, hence it is more in line with the actual engineering application. It is proved that the algorithm can guarantee the stability of the closed-loop system based on the Lyapunov function method. The numerical simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can not only compensate for the uncertain parameters, but also can tolerate the PLCE actuator faults effectively, which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the control scheme.     

高原环境对弹丸动态稳定性的影响

分析了高原环境低空气密度对弹丸动态稳定性的影响。给出了弹道坐标系中的力方程组和非滚转弹体坐标系中的力矩方程组,并通过线性化方法得到弹丸角运动的状态空间模型。列出了角运动状态矩阵的四个特征根,并利用复数平方根计算方法得到特征根实部的表达式。提出弹丸动态稳定性稳定因子的新定义,并证明新的动态稳定条件与传统的动态稳定条件是一致的。讨论了低空气密度对尾翼稳定弹和旋转稳定弹动态稳定性的影响,并通过仿真说明弹丸在高原条件和平原条件下的动态稳定性存在差异。     

快速航天发射现状与建设

快速航天发射以其响应快、成本低等优势,能较好地满足军民商快速太空进入的需求。概述了快速航天发射军用牵引、商用助推的发展特点,分析了未来军民商领域对快速航天发射的新需求。归纳了快速航天发射的发展历程和发展模式,分析了美军太空军事演习对快速航天发射的促进作用。基于美国在快速进入太空的需求评估、技术发展、管理制度等方面取得的经验教训,探讨我国快速航天发射的主要制约因素。针对美国新太空战略威慑和太空霸权,为我国快速航天发射力量建设提出相应的发展建议。     

一种新的避免航迹合并的比例联合概率关联算法

通过对传统的联合概率数据关联算法(JPDA)在平行临近及小角度交叉目标的关联跟踪中引起的航迹合并问题的分析,提出了一种基于最大交互概率的改进比例联合概率数据关联算法.该算法找出距离两逼近目标的交互概率中心最近的有效观测,引入一比例因子对该观测与所有目标的关联概率进行修正,将逼近目标“拉开”,从而抑制了航迹的合并.仿真结...     

高中生饮酒行为及心理影响因素研究——以石河子市某高中为例

目的：研究高中生饮酒现状及相关心理影响因素。方法：采用问卷调查的方法,对在石河子市某高中就读的500名学生进行问卷调查研究工具：酒精使用障碍筛查量表（AUDIT）。UCLA孤独量表（第三版）。焦虑自评量表（SAS）结果：①高中生中不饮酒者323人,占受调查人数”．9％,饮酒学生114人;占受调查人数26．1％。饮酒者中男生74人,占39．6％,女性40人。占16％。②高中生饮酒情况因年级、性别、母亲饮酒、朋友饮酒而有所差异（P〈0．05）。具体表现为：男性、高年缴、母亲饮酒者、朋友饮酒者,其自身饮酒情况较重。③高中生饮酒与孤独感负相关,与焦虑正相关（上述结果p〈0．05）。     

The impact of military spending cutbacks on economic activity in an incentive‐wage two‐sector aggregative economy∗

We examine the theoretical outcomes of disarmament on economic activity in a two‐sector model of endogenous equilibrium unemployment rate. Three main shocks are analyzed: Exogenous cutbacks in military spending on the capital good and employment, and a reduction in public sector debt. The first shock is contractionary for equilibrium employment if the capital‐goods producing sector is relatively labour‐intensive but expansionary under the alternative factor intensity assumption. The second shock is contractionary for employment under either relative factor intensity assumption. If Ricardian equivalence fails, a reduction in public sector debt is likely to expand long‐term employment (JEL E24).     

军校学员周边绩效的影响因素及提升对策研究

周边绩效是管理和绩效评价领域研究的新热点,但军校学员的周边绩效及其影响因素还鲜有文章涉及。通过研究发现,人格、工作满意度、主观幸福感、组织公平感、组织交换和军营文化,是军校学员周边行为和周边绩效的主要内、外部影响因素。在此基础上,提出了提高军校学员周边绩效的建议,可促使周边绩效在军校学员管理中得到合理关注,发挥其应有的价值和作用。