从作战实际规划攻击型潜艇战斗系统

首先简述潜艇兵力的使命任务和作战特点 ,然后从作战的角度分析了攻击型潜艇战斗系统与海军战役系统的关系 ,提出了潜艇战斗系统的组成 ,探讨了潜艇战斗系统的功能及其动态特性。     

Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign

In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001     

运用联合作战理论指导公安现役办工作

做好公安现役部队的干部工作,是贯彻落实科学发展观、做到以人为本的具体实践。现役办做干部工作,可运用联合作战理论,在战术上,抓住工作的重点、热点、亮点;在战役上,对上当好参谋、对内建好队伍、对下搞好服务;在战略上,紧抓思想政治建设,健全各种制度。     

面向对象的战略战役指挥训练模拟系统数据建模

大型的战略战役指挥训练模拟系统需要内容复杂、数量庞大的数据作为支撑,而结构清晰、容易理解的数据模型是系统成功开发和应用的前提。采用面向对象的基本方法,给出了系统数据建模的概念定义并采用UM L表示法进行了建模方法分析,最后讨论了OO数据模型在系统工程化的数据准备以及运行时和事后分析等应用中所具有的特点。     

A best practice for assessment in counterinsurgency

In September 2011, the Commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan directed the Afghan Assessment Group to redesign the way in which ISAF was assessing the status of the war, and to be ‘revolutionary’ in so doing. The resulting assessment paradigm was novel, non-doctrinal, and effectively addressed the unique complexities of the counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and the needs of the ISAF Commander. It had a two-tier structure consisting of both strategic and campaign assessments. The former focused on answering a set of strategic questions in narrative, analytic form to address the strategic environment, while the latter used a set of standards and accompanying narrative responses to gauge accomplishment of campaign tasks. Both tiers captured the current state of the war while maintaining an eye on future challenges and opportunities. The two assessments and their associated processes were designed to stimulate discussions leading directly to decisions by senior leaders on actions they could take, direct, or request. While any assessment paradigm will have advantages and disadvantages, an examination of the pros and cons of this assessment paradigm makes clear that it should be considered a ‘best practice’ in the field of counterinsurgency assessment.     

空中突击兵力使用方案的优化方法

空中进攻战役全过程突击兵力使用方案的优化问题 ,是当前国内外亟待研究的重大课题。在提出多时段计划思想的基础上 ,给出了一种较为有效的优化模型 ,并探讨了有关的数据过滤问题     

Challenges of measuring progress in Afghanistan using violence trends: the effects of aggregation,military operations,seasonality, weather,and other causal factors

Measuring nationwide progress of counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan using violence trends is difficult due to several factors: aggregation of data to the national level may obfuscate disparate local trends; the observed seasonality in violence makes comparisons difficult and may obscure progress; and short-term spikes or troughs – attributable to weather, military operations and tempo, or holiday periods – heavily influence simple averaging schemes. Despite these challenges, proper understanding of violence statistics is critical to estimating the effectiveness of military forces added during a surge or redeployed as part of transition. This article explores methods for analyzing observed violence trends to identify causal factors, to provide a comparable baseline, and to inform assessments at appropriate levels of aggregation. One methodology for seasonal adjustment of violence data is discussed and shown to provide a logical baseline for examining trends. An ordinary least squares regression model is developed and implemented using time-series violence data.     

Lanchester for cyber: The mixed epidemic‐combat model

Future conflict between armed forces will occur both in the physical domain as well as the information domain. The linkage of these domains is not yet fully understood. We study the dynamics of a force subject to kinetic effects as well as a specific network effect–spreading malware. In the course of our study, we unify two well‐studied models: the Lanchester model of armed conflict and deterministic models of epidemiology. We develop basic results, including a rule for determining when explicit modeling of network propagation is required. We then generalize the model to a force subdivided by both physical and network topology, and demonstrate the specific case where the force is divided between front‐ and rear‐echelons. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

影响反恐作战的气象环境效能评估模型

2007年8月,上合组织成员国武装力量举行了举世瞩目的"和平使命——2007"联合反恐军事演习。从演习的5个阶段,探讨气象环境条件对联合反恐军演作战样式和新型武器装备效能的影响;利用层次分析法,结合专家评分方法采用合理的标度转化方法,构建判断矩阵,建立影响反恐作战的气象环境效能评估模型。模型评估结果与客观实际基本相符,对反恐作战效能和武器作战性能的充分发挥以及最大限度利用战场气象环境优势,具有重要的决策支持意义和重要军事价值。     

战役物资供应链定性仿真研究

运用定性建模与仿真的方法研究战役物资供应链的整体供应能力,能从整体性角度出发,全局遍历战役物资供应链的不利影响因素。简要介绍了SDG(Signed Directed Graph)定性仿真工具的结构和功能;建立了战役物资供应链整体功能定性仿真模型;根据案例描述,把定量描述转化成定性值,设置定性仿真初始值,进行定性仿真实验。仿真结果为:影响战役物资供应链整体供应能力的主要不利因素为"敌火力打击我战役供应指挥机构",可找到其产生的推理路径,改变定性初始值的设置,控制不利影响因素出现的次数。