QUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONS ON THE FLOW OF NARCOTICS: SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESTRAINTS IN A NORTH–SOUTH MACRO‐MODEL

This paper constructs a macroeconomic model of North–South interaction where the flow of narcotics from the South to the North is restricted. The economic effects are akin to quantitative restrictions in trade policy. Two alternative policy scenarios will be considered. One involves reducing the supply of drugs at the source, accompanied by aid. Supply‐side restrictions have negative aggregate supply‐side effects in the producing region, because of the monopoly rents generated from that type of control. This makes them a second‐best policy, particularly if the accompanying aid is not used for poverty alleviation and fails to expand domestic aggregate demand. Alternatively, demand side restrictions will be found to be superior.     

One Step Forward,Two Steps Back

This article explores the potential impact of U.S. disarmament leadership on the nuclear diplomacy of North Korea and Iran, the “defiant states.” The first part of the article introduces the concept of “interaction capacity,” which measures a state's integration into international society, based on its physical communication systems and its adoption of shared norms. The theory predicts that lower levels of interaction capacity will generate a greater propensity for nuclear defiance, as the affected states reject and try to resist integration pressures. In the second and third parts of the article, this conceptual framework is applied to the cases of North Korea and Iran. The analysis suggests that efforts to reassert U.S. disarmament leadership could increase the alienation of North Korea and Iran, leading to provocation and escalation of nuclear tensions. The final part of the paper explores the policy implications of this analysis for the potentially defunct six-party talks, for hopes of renewed negotiations with Iran, and for the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.     

应用小扰动分析方法进行舰船排水量/费用影响研究

采用一种“小扰动分析方法”研究了由于设计参数的改变而引起排水量及相关费用变化的过程,即“舰船排水量／费用影响研究”．在分析方法原理的基础上,以动力装置为例具体演示了分析过程,并结合实例说明了该方法在现代舰船设计权衡中的应用．     

The financing factor in military trade

Available sources value transfers of weapons irrespective of whether they are paid for and how. Data from the U.S. indicates that the shares of arms given for free or on credit are high. If other arms exporters, all military aid and all credits used for military purposes are considered, which is done here on the basis of rough estimates and an opportunity cost model, the true cash costs of weapons in the year of the actual transfer are small. On the other hand, the financial burden of earlier arms imports via debt service has grown over time. It most probably exceeded the true cash cost of imports of arms in the late 1980s. Large differences between arms transfer data and the actual true costs of arms transfers means that analysis of the economic effects of arms imports without considering these financial aspects makes little sense.     

Modeling the effects of military tension on foreign trade: Some preliminary empirical findings from the Greek-Turkish rivalry

In this paper we examine the effects of irreversibility on foreign trade in the case where there are two sources of uncertainty. The two sources considered in this paper are uncertainty arising from business risk and uncertainty arising from military tension. The resulting insights are then used to model the import markets of Greece and Turkey. These models are then empirically estimated, in order to ascertain, on the one hand whether there is evidence that irreversibility is indeed a factor on the supply side of these markets, and on the other hand, the direction of the incidence of military tension on foreign trade. An index of military tension is used for the two countries, based on the number of airspace violations by Turkish military aircraft of Greek airspace.