基于步进应力加速老化和改进Arrhenius模型的橡胶贮存寿命预测

为准确、快速地预测橡胶的贮存寿命,在步进高温应力加速老化试验的基础上,对不同加速温度下的加速系数进行计算,获得加速因子和绝对温度倒数的曲线,发现橡胶老化过程表现出非Arrhenius特性。针对非Arrhenius特性,引入幂指数因子,采用一种改进的Arrhenius模型对加速系数进行拟合。由对数反应速率与绝对温度倒数曲线的斜率,计算了改进Arrhenius模型在不同温度下的等效线性活化能,结果表明低温下活化能减小。建立低温下的老化寿命模型,对胶料在10℃,20℃和30℃下的老化寿命进行评估。评估结果表明,该模型可为相关高分子材料腐蚀过程中呈现的非Arrhenius特性的分析及寿命预测提供参考。     

How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

Many observers anticipate “arms races” between states seeking to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) in diverse military applications, some of which raise concerns on ethical and legal grounds, or from the perspective of strategic stability or accident risk. How viable are arms control regimes for military AI? This article draws a parallel with the experience in controlling nuclear weapons, to examine the opportunities and pitfalls of efforts to prevent, channel, or contain the militarization of AI. It applies three analytical lenses to argue that (1) norm institutionalization can counter or slow proliferation; (2) organized “epistemic communities” of experts can effectively catalyze arms control; (3) many military AI applications will remain susceptible to “normal accidents,” such that assurances of “meaningful human control” are largely inadequate. I conclude that while there are key differences, understanding these lessons remains essential to those seeking to pursue or study the next chapter in global arms control.     

Dynamic signatures and their use in comparing the reliability of new and used systems

The signature of a system with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes is a vector whose ith element is the probability that the ith component failure is fatal to the system. System signatures have been found to be quite useful tools in the study and comparison of engineered systems. In this article, the theory of system signatures is extended to versions of signatures applicable in dynamic reliability settings. It is shown that, when a working used system is inspected at time t and it is noted that precisely k failures have occurred, the vector s [0,1]^n‐k whose jth element is the probability that the (k + j)th component failure is fatal to the system, for j = 1,2,2026;,n ‐ k, is a distribution‐free measure of the design of the residual system. Next, known representation and preservation theorems for system signatures are generalized to dynamic versions. Two additional applications of dynamic signatures are studied in detail. The well‐known “new better than used” (NBU) property of aging systems is extended to a uniform (UNBU) version, which compares systems when new and when used, conditional on the known number of failures. Sufficient conditions are given for a system to have the UNBU property. The application of dynamic signatures to the engineering practice of “burn‐in” is also treated. Specifically, we consider the comparison of new systems with working used systems burned‐in to a given ordered component failure time. In a reliability economics framework, we illustrate how one might compare a new system to one successfully burned‐in to the kth component failure, and we identify circumstances in which burn‐in is inferior (or is superior) to the fielding of a new system. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

矿物掺合料对GRC耐久性的影响

通过长达3年的标准养护试验及80℃热水加速老化试验,研究了矿物掺合料粉煤灰、硅灰对耐碱玻璃纤维增强普通硅酸盐水泥(GRC)耐久性的影响,并对矿物掺合料改善GRC耐久性的机理作了初步分析探讨。研究结果表明,粉煤灰和硅灰矿物掺合料可明显改善GRC的长期耐久性。     

发动机粘接界面加速老化及寿命预测

介绍发动机粘接界面老化试验,根据其力学特性的变化,建立合适的数学模型,并估算出贮存寿命。     

Relative Aging of Coherent Systems

In this article, we carry out the stochastic comparison between coherent systems through the relative aging order when component lifetimes are independent and identically distributed. We make use of the signature to characterize the structure of coherent systems, and derive several sufficient conditions under which the compared systems with the common size can be ordered in the sense of relative aging. Specially, we present some scenarios wherein the better a coherent system is, the faster it ages. Moreover, we discuss the relative aging of dual systems as well. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 345–354, 2017     

关于S147 铝合金形变时效强化研究

本文研究了S147铝合金板材在形变时效处理各工艺阶段中的组织与性能。用扫描电镜观察分析了材料的断口形貌,并用薄膜试样在透射电镜下分析研究了该合金形变时效处理后的微观亚结构及过渡相析出物特征。结果表明,最佳形变时效处理可显著提高S147铝合金的强度及塑韧性,并能改善其过渡相析出过程及特征。     

故障诊断技术方法综述及展望

机械的控制系统发生故障对整个机械设备发生故障有很大影响,而且控制系统中应用的故障诊断方法与机械设备状态监测所应用的故障诊断方法相类似。因此,作者对故障诊断技术目前的状况进行了分析和总结,重点讨论了故障诊断技术在上述两个方面应用的主要方法,并加以比较,提出了在这一领域中值得进一步研究的一些问题和将来的发展方向。     

具有多重置条件的目标二次航迹归一

针对防空Ｃ￣３Ｉ系统指挥中心的二次航迹归一。提出了具有重置条件的人工神经网络模型来解决空中目标二次航迹的归一问题。结果表明,采用新方法来进行二次航迹归一,具备速度快、计算量小、实时性好,且能保证较高的辨识正确率等优点。     

Preservation of stochastic orders for random minima and maxima,with applications

It is shown, in this note, that the right spread order and the increasing convex order are both preserved under the taking of random maxima, and the total time on test transform order and the increasing concave order are preserved under the taking of random minima. Some inequalities and preservation properties in reliability and economics are given as applications. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.