India's Evolving Nuclear Posture

This article analyzes India's nuclear doctrine, finding it to be critically flawed and inimical to strategic stability in South Asia. In pursuing an ambitious triad of nuclear forces, India is straying from the sensible course it charted after going overtly nuclear in 1998. In doing so, it is exacerbating the triangular nuclear dilemma stemming from India's simultaneous rivalries with China and Pakistan. Strategic instability is compounded by India's pursuit of conventional “proactive strategy options,” which have the potential to lead to uncontrollable nuclear escalation on the subcontinent. New Delhi should reaffirm and redefine its doctrine of minimum credible nuclear deterrence, based on small nuclear forces with sufficient redundancy and diversity to deter a first strike by either China or Pakistan. It should also reinvigorate its nuclear diplomacy and assume a leadership role in the evolving global nuclear weapon regime.     

The Requirements of Nuclear Stability in South Asia

While recent history arguably demonstrates a high level of nuclear stability in South Asia, this article argues that this stability has historically been a function of India's relative weakness. It argues that, as India becomes stronger, attention must be paid to the technical and political requirements of nuclear stability: the reliability of weapons and command and control and the political conditions that underpin stable relations between nuclear-armed states. It concludes by recommending the United States aim to modify the perceptions of regional elites about their various intentions and decision-making processes and the role of the United States as crisis manager.     

China's Nuclear Forces and Their Significance to India

The Indian nuclear program is a response to a perceived politico-strategic threat from China as opposed to a military-operational one that New Delhi began after perceiving an “ultimatum” from China in 1965. Consequently, India is in the process of acquiring an assured second-strike capability vis-à-vis China to meet the requirements of general deterrence. While India has always been concerned about the Sino-Pakistani nuclear/missile nexus, China has become wary of the growing military ties between the United States and India in recent years, especially because of the military implications of the US-India civil nuclear deal. Given the growing conventional military gap between the two states, India is not lowering its nuclear threshold to meet the Chinese conventional challenge. Instead, India is upgrading its conventional military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence against China. While the overall Sino-Indian nuclear relationship is stable, it will be challenged as China acquires advanced conventional weapons that blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict.     

Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapon Posture

This essay provides an overview of the ongoing quantitative and qualitative changes in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and their impact on deterrence stability vis-à-vis India. Prominent among these trends is a major expansion in fissile material production that enables the manufacture of lighter and more compact warheads optimized for battlefield missions; the development of cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles possessing dual-use capabilities; and a greater emphasis in doctrinal pronouncements on the need for strike options geared to all levels of conflict. Although these trends pose problematic ramifications for the risks of unauthorized and inadvertent escalation, deterrence stability in South Asia is not as precarious as many observers fear. The challenges of fashioning a robust nuclear peace between India and Pakistan cannot be lightly dismissed, however, and policy makers would do well to undertake some reinforcing measures.     

Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes?

Sixteen years after stepping out of the nuclear closet, India's nuclear posture, some of its operational practices, and hardware developments are beginning to mimic those of the original five nuclear weapon states. Several proliferation scholars in the United States contend that India's national security managers are poised to repeat the worst mistakes of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear competition, with negative consequences for deterrence, crisis, and stability in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This article takes a contrarian view. It dissects the best available data to show why the alarmist view is overstated. It argues that not only are the alarmists’ claims unsupported by evidence, their interpretation of the skeletal and often contradictory data threatens to construct the very threat they prophesize.     

航母编队远程防空作战中预警机巡逻区域大小设置

提供了一种航母编队远程防空作战中预警机巡逻区域大小配置的优化方法。通过对航母编队防空区域划分,提出了大小配置的基本要求。以预警机平飞长度、转弯半径和巡逻速度为因素,以目标发现概率、覆盖率和目标发现距离作为评价指标对试验结果进行直观分析,得到对评价指标影响最显著的因素为平飞长度,进而采用正交设计、变步长搜索迭代的方法得到巡逻空域大小的最优布置方案。     

边疆地区政治社会化有效性思考

边疆地区有其独特的历史文化等传统,有着复杂的自然条件和环境,特殊的地理位置,边疆地区的政治社会化程度直接影响到主导型政治文化的实现,影响到该地区的稳定和发展,关系到边防的巩固和国家的统一。该地区的政治社会化要在重点对象确定的前提下,既要注重发挥其主要途径的作用、又要注重其内容的针对性和时效性、更要注意较大地区差距的负面影响并努力将其缩小,才能使边疆地区政治社会化有较好的效果。     

基于运动特征的机载雷达目标断续量测处理

机载预警雷达对目标的量测经常出现断续现象,影响了航迹连续性要求。通过对机载脉冲多普勒雷达量测出现断续的机理分析,考虑目标进入雷达多普勒盲区的情况,基于目标运动特征提出利用联合关联波门与盲区预测相结合的处理方法,将重新出现的目标点迹与原有航迹进行关联,避免同一目标航迹因量测断续而重复起始。仿真结果表明了该方法的有效性与可行性。     

以促进新疆经济为导向的校本课程资源开发与功能建构

新疆是少数民族聚居的地区,发展少数民族教育意义重大。除了必要的硬件设施外,我们还需要适应少数民族地区特点的教育模式。开发校本课程,使之与国家课程相得益彰,共同促进少数民族教育的发展进而带动地区经济的发展成为必需。针对新疆这一具有民族特殊性的地方,如何有效的开发校本课程并使之落到实处成为解决问题的关键。     

姿控发动机高空羽流流场DSMC仿真及算法研究

本文分析了高空羽流流场的特性，论述了ＤＳＭＣ方法的原理以及涉及到的关键技术，应用ＤＳＭＣ方法数值求解了喷管出口附近及倒流区流场。仿真结果表明ＤＳＭＣ方法能够精确描述这一区域的流场特性。