Untruthful probabilistic demand forecasts in vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing contracts: Coordinating the chain

Vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing arrangements are common in the newspaper and other industries. Under such arrangements, the supplier decides on the level of inventory while the retailer effectively operates under consignment, sharing the sales revenue with his supplier. We consider the case where the supplier is unable to predict demand, and must base her decisions on the retailer‐supplied probabilistic forecast for demand. We show that the retailer's best choice of a distribution to report to his supplier will not be the true demand distribution, but instead will be a degenerate distribution that surprisingly induces the supplier to provide the system‐optimal inventory quantity. (To maintain credibility, the retailer's reports of daily sales must then be consistent with his supplied forecast.) This result is robust under nonlinear production costs and nonlinear revenue‐sharing. However, if the retailer does not know the supplier's production cost, the forecast “improves” and could even be truthful. That, however, causes the supplier's order quantity to be suboptimal for the overall system. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Production to order and off‐line inspection when the production process is partially observable

This study combines inspection and lot‐sizing decisions. The issue is whether to INSPECT another unit or PRODUCE a new lot. A unit produced is either conforming or defective. Demand need to be satisfied in full, by conforming units only. The production process may switch from a “good” state to a “bad” state, at constant rate. The proportion of conforming units in the good state is higher than in the bad state. The true state is unobservable and can only be inferred from the quality of units inspected. We thus update, after each inspection, the probability that the unit, next candidate for inspection, was produced while the production process was in the good state. That “good‐state‐probability” is the basis for our decision to INSPECT or PRODUCE. We prove that the optimal policy has a simple form: INSPECT only if the good‐state‐probability exceeds a control limit. We provide a methodology to calculate the optimal lot size and the expected costs associated with INSPECT and PRODUCE. Surprisingly, we find that the control limit, as a function of the demand (and other problem parameters) is not necessarily monotone. Also, counter to intuition, it is possible that the optimal action is PRODUCE, after revealing a conforming unit. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Kurtosis correction method for X̄ and R control charts for long‐tailed symmetrical distributions

This paper proposes a kurtosis correction (KC) method for constructing the X? and R control charts for symmetrical long‐tailed (leptokurtic) distributions. The control charts are similar to the Shewhart control charts and are very easy to use. The control limits are derived based on the degree of kurtosis estimated from the actual (subgroup) data. It is assumed that the underlying quality characteristic is symmetrically distributed and no other distributional and/or parameter assumptions are made. The control chart constants are tabulated and the performance of these charts is compared with that of the Shewhart control charts. For the case of the logistic distribution, the exact control limits are derived and are compared with the KC method and the Shewhart method. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

钢丝绳隔振器冲击特性试验研究

采用气缸式冲击模拟台对钢丝绳隔振器进行了冲击特性试验研究,介绍了试验系统及测量方法。在比较符合舰船实际冲击环境的情况下,获得了钢丝绳隔振器压缩和拉伸方向完整的特性曲线。试验结果分析表明,钢丝绳隔振器表现出明显的冲击软化现象,其冲击刚度特性小于静刚度和动刚度,而且它具有大阻尼耗能特性,是比较理想的抗冲元件。     

基于数据库的自动测试系统软件平台的设计与实现

采用基于数据库的模式构建系统软件平台,综合各种技术通过数据库控制测试过程。测试程序集的开发借鉴IVI-MSS和面向信号ATS的软件结构,利用功能接口技术实现仪器可互换性,运用模块化技术解决测试程序集的可移植性问题。实验表明:该软件平台设计合理,适用于多种装备测试与诊断系统的快速开发。     

基于虚拟样机的坦克承载零部件疲劳寿命预测方法

坦克承载零部件的疲劳失效是其主要的失效形式,疲劳寿命的预测一直是装备设计、研制、验证和使用过程中的重要问题之一。利用虚拟样机技术,建立履带车辆刚柔体耦合模型,通过在一定任务剖面下车辆虚拟试验,测试其承载零件的载荷谱,结合疲劳寿命分析技术,进行疲劳寿命预测,并给出计算实例,预测的寿命与实际使用情况相符合,表明提出的坦克承载件疲劳寿命预测方法是一种高效、实用的新方法。     

Subspace dynamic‐simplex linear interpolation search for mixed‐integer black‐box optimization problems

Design and management of complex systems with both integer and continuous decision variables can be guided using mixed‐integer optimization models and analysis. We propose a new mixed‐integer black‐box optimization (MIBO) method, subspace dynamic‐simplex linear interpolation search (SD‐SLIS), for decision making problems in which system performance can only be evaluated with a computer black‐box model. Through a sequence of gradient‐type local searches in subspaces of solution space, SD‐SLIS is particularly efficient for such MIBO problems with scaling issues. We discuss the convergence conditions and properties of SD‐SLIS algorithms for a class of MIBO problems. Under mild conditions, SD‐SLIS is proved to converge to a stationary solution asymptotically. We apply SD‐SLIS to six example problems including two MIBO problems associated with petroleum field development projects. The algorithm performance of SD‐SLIS is compared with that of a state‐of‐the‐art direct‐search method, NOMAD, and that of a full space simplex interpolation search, Full‐SLIS. The numerical results suggest that SD‐SLIS solves the example problems efficiently and outperforms the compared methods for most of the example cases. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 305–322, 2017     

Alleviating time inconsistent behaviors via a competition scheme

Under quasi‐hyperbolic discounting, the valuation of a payoff falls relatively rapidly for earlier delay periods, but then falls more slowly for longer delay periods. When the salespersons with quasi‐hyperbolic discounting consider the product sale problem, they would exert less effort than their early plan, thus resulting in losses of future profit. We propose a winner‐takes‐all competition to alleviate the above time inconsistent behaviors of the salespersons, and allow the company to maximize its revenue by choosing an optimal bonus. To evaluate the effects of the competition scheme, we define the group time inconsistency degree of the salespersons, which measures the consequence of time inconsistent behaviors, and two welfare measures, the group welfare of the salespersons and the company revenue. We show that the competition always improves the group welfare and the company revenue as long as the company chooses to run the competition in the first place. However, the effect on group time inconsistency degree is mixed. When the optimal bonus is moderate (extreme high), the competition motivates (over‐motivates) the salesperson to work hard, thus alleviates (worsens) the time inconsistent behaviors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 357–372, 2017     

Probabilistic resource pooling games

We study a setting with a single type of resource and with several players, each associated with a single resource (of this type). Unavailability of these resources comes unexpectedly and with player‐specific costs. Players can cooperate by reallocating the available resources to the ones that need the resources most and let those who suffer the least absorb all the costs. We address the cost savings allocation problem with concepts of cooperative game theory. In particular, we formulate a probabilistic resource pooling game and study them on various properties. We show that these games are not necessarily convex, do have non‐empty cores, and are totally balanced. The latter two are shown via an interesting relationship with Böhm‐Bawerk horse market games. Next, we present an intuitive class of allocation rules for which the resulting allocations are core members and study an allocation rule within this class of allocation rules with an appealing fairness property. Finally, we show that our results can be applied to a spare parts pooling situation.     

离心机试验中惯导平台误差系数辨识方法

针对离心机试验中惯导平台误差系数辨识问题,提出一种6位置辨识方案。建立误差系数辨识的非线性模型,再利用扩展卡尔曼滤波估计误差系数。由滤波中的估值方差矩阵计算各误差系数之间的相关系数,用相关系数分析系统的可观性,并将所有相关系数之和最小作为优化指标,利用遗传算法得到最优的位置组合。仿真结果表明,采用该方案可以有效辨识出惯导平台中与加速度高阶项有关的各项误差系数。