Bayesian testing strategies for software with an operational profile

We consider a software reliability model where the failure rate of each fault depends on the specific operation performed. The software is tested in a given sequence of test cases for fixed durations of time to collect data on failure times. We present a Bayesian analysis of software failure data by treating the initial number of faults as a random variable. Our analysis relies on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and is used for developing optimal testing strategies in an adaptive manner. Two different models involving individual and common faults are analyzed. We illustrate an implementation of our approach by using some simulated failure data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:747–763, 2001     

初始先验分布未知条件下的DLMR及其Bayes预测

讨论了具有无信息初始先验分布的矩阵变量动态线性模型 (简记为DLMR)及其Bayes预测 ,利用MDIP方法 ,就尺度方差阵∑已知和未知两种情况 ,分别给出模拟初始状态参数(θ1 |D0 )和 (θ1 ,∑ |D0 )的无信息先验分布 ,进而给出其Bayes预测。     

Analysis of production lines with Coxian service times and no intermediate buffers

This paper uses the holding time model (HTM) method to derive an approximate analytic formula for the calculation of the mean throughput of a K-station production line with no buffers between any two successive stations. Service times follow the two-stage Coxian (C²) distribution at all stations. The paper provides a formula that relates the third moment of the service completion (or virtual service) time with the respective parameters of the service time, the repair time and the time to breakdown (the latter is assumed to follow the exponential distribution). In this way, it concludes that under certain conditions the two-stage Coxian distribution can be used to approximate any general distribution matching the first three moments of the service completion time distribution. The mean holding times (consisting of the service and blocking periods) of all stations of the line are obtained in an analytical form. Numerical results are provided for the mean throughput of lines with up to 20 stations. These results are shown to have a good accuracy compared against results obtained from the Markovian state method (for short lines) and results from simulation (for longer lines). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 669–685, 1998     

The effect of training data set size and the complexity of the separation function on neural network classification capability: The two-group case

Classification among groups is a crucial problem in managerial decision making. Classification techniques are used in: identifying stressed firms, classifying among consumer types, and rating of firms' bonds, etc. Neural networks are recognized as important and emerging methodologies in the area of classification. In this paper, we study the effect of training sample size and the neural network topology on the classification capability of neural networks. We also compare neural network capabilities with those of commonly used statistical methodologies. Experiments were designed and carried out on two-group classification problems to find answers to these questions. The prediction capability of the neural network models are better than traditional statistical models. The learning capability of the neural networks is improving compared to traditional models because the discriminate function is more complex. For real world classification problems, the usage of neural networks is highly recommended, for two reasons: learning capability and flexibility. Learning capability: Neural network classifies better in sterile experiments as performed in this research. Flexibility: Real life data are rarely not contaminated with noise, such as unknown distributions, and missing variables, etc. Neural networks differ from a statistical model that it is not dependent on any assumption concerning the data set distribution. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 699–717, 1997     

Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

基于RBF网络的导弹攻击区解算及对比分析

研究了神经网络在空空导弹攻击区处理中的运用,在提出多层前馈(MF)网络和径向基函数(RBF)网络设计方案的基础上,着重对MF网络的BP算法、改进BP算法以及RBF网络的应用进行了仿真,并从收敛速度、逼近精度和实时性三个方面,对计算结果进行了对比分析,结论表明RBF网络在导弹攻击区处理中具有更高的可行性,更适用于快速高精度的火控解算。     

一种基于神经网络的磁性目标定位方法

磁性目标定位问题可归结为一类非线性规划问题的求解 .该问题的最大特点就是其目标函数的计算过程极为繁琐 .而目标函数计算的快慢对磁定位的实时性有很大影响 .在详细研究了目标函数之后 ,给出了目标函数的一种神经网络结构实现 .由于该网络结构易于并行计算和VLSI实现 ,从而可使磁定位的实时性得到改善 .     

跨模态检索中的相似性漂移问题

为了降低“相似性漂移”问题的影响,提出一种基于“邻域传播”的匹配策略,将待查询项的模态内近邻映射到目标空间中,并将它们在目标空间中的最近邻作为查询项的跨模态近邻。基于邻域传播的匹配策略在不改变跨模态映射函数的条件下,可以有效地降低“相似性漂移”带来的误匹配现象。理论和实验分析证明,跨模态映射函数的“相似性漂移”问题广泛存在,而基于“邻域传播”的匹配策略可以有效降低其影响,提高匹配的准确率。     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.     

The social structure of armed groups. Reproduction and change during and after conflict

Current research on civil wars and conflict increasingly turns to the inner structure and functioning of state and non-state armed groups and their impact on aspects such as violent practice, internal cohesion and the dissolution of these groups during the conversion to peace. The first aim of this introduction is to set out the theme of this Special Issue on the social structure of armed groups and previous research within the field. The second aim is to introduce the contributions within the Special Issue, alongside possible trajectories of future research on the ‘meso-foundations’ of civil war and conflict.