用于态势估计的贝叶斯网络方法

态势估计系统需要对大量的不确定性知识进行处理,不确定性知识表示和推理是态势估计中的研究热点.利用贝叶斯网络技术,可以实现对不确定性知识的处理.为此讨论了贝叶斯网络理论,详细分析了态势估计的功能模型,提出事件检测是态势估计的核心和起点,研究了用于态势估计的贝叶斯网络的构建方法.该方法充分考虑贝叶斯网络的几项基本要素,可以解决态势估计领域中贝叶斯网络的构建问题.贝叶斯网络技术在态势估计领域具有广阔的前景,将极大地推动态势估计系统的发展.     

信息管理误失灰色补偿方法

在信息采集、信息管理、信息传递过程中,数据链出现空穴、误传或丢失等情况时,将影响信息采集传递的安全性与信息管理的有效性,是信息管理与使用中一个值得关注的问题,如何对数据列进行有效补偿则是解决该问题的关键.运用灰色理论与正交试验设计方法建立了信息链缺失补偿模型并给出了信息链空穴补偿优化准则.所给出的具体的补偿实例说明信息链空穴灰色生成与正交试验设计生成是一种极为有效的信息缺失补偿方法.     

一体化联合作战指挥信息流通体系逻辑结构分析

针对协同性联合作战向一体化联合作战转变对作战指挥产生的影响,在正确定位指挥信息流通体系的基础上,从一体化联合作战的本质特征及对指挥信息流通体系的影响出发,设计了基本作战单元指挥信息输入、输出模型,并通过将作战体系区分为四类模块,得出了指挥信息流通体系的逻辑结构.     

Pairwise model discrimination with applications in lifetime distributions and degradation processes

Reliability data obtained from life tests and degradation tests have been extensively used for purposes such as estimating product reliability and predicting warranty costs. When there is more than one candidate model, an important task is to discriminate between the models. In the literature, the model discrimination was often treated as a hypothesis test and a pairwise model discrimination procedure was carried out. Because the null distribution of the test statistic is unavailable in most cases, the large sample approximation and the bootstrap were frequently used to find the acceptance region of the test. Although these two methods are asymptotically accurate, their performance in terms of size and power is not satisfactory in small sample size. To enhance the small‐sample performance, we propose a new method to approximate the null distribution, which builds on the idea of generalized pivots. Conventionally, the generalized pivots were often used for interval estimation of a certain parameter or function of parameters in presence of nuisance parameters. In this study, we further extend the idea of generalized pivots to find the acceptance region of the model discrimination test. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in discriminating between two lifetime distributions or two degradation models over a wide range of sample sizes. Two real examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

军队政治工作信息资源元数据标准

随着政治工作信息资源管理的需要,运用元数据来描述政治工作信息资源正逐渐成为普遍趋势,由于政治工作信息资源来源广泛种类复杂,如果缺乏顶层设计,势必会造成元数据标准不统一不规范的现象,从而影响政治工作信息资源管理。文章研究军队政治工作信息资源元数据标准的内涵,阐述其在政治工作信息化建设中的作用价值,提出具体设计应该遵循的原则和步骤。     

The Russian hybrid warfare strategy – neither Russian nor strategy

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its initial actions in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the term hybrid warfare has received much public attention. Many have argued that the Russian actions we saw in Ukraine were part of a completely new strategy while others have suggested that there was nothing new in Russia’s actions. This article takes a critical look at these claims. Through the assessment of the history of the term hybrid warfare and a rigorous analysis of the so-called Gerasimov doctrine, this study finds that the Russian hybrid warfare strategy is rather a western myth than a formal comprehensive Russian strategic concept. Additionally, through the assessment of the Russian use of information operations and the way she has utilised the cyberspace in several recent conflicts, the study finds that against all claims Russia did not make these areas its main battlefield, but rather has been using them in support of its traditional concepts.     

指数寿命产品可靠性增长试验的Bayes分析

针对指数寿命产品的定时、定数截尾试验方案,推广了Mazzuchi-Soyer模型的应用范围。首先引入模型假设,以狄氏分布作为先验分布,综合利用产品研制的历史信息和专家信息,结合产品研制各阶段试验数据,给出了各阶段可靠性的联合后验分布。然后利用Gibbs抽样算法解决后验推断计算问题,得到各阶段产品可靠性的Bayes点估计和区间估计。最后给出产品可靠性增长分析实例,表明了模型的优越性。     

基于信息需求的情报支持效能分析

经典的侦察与监测(S&R)系统效能分析方法存在模型难以建立、结果不准确等问题。考虑到S&R系统的目的是提供情报支持,提出一种基于信息需求的S&R系统情报支持效能分析方法。该方法以用户的信息需求为度量基准量,比较S&R系统性能对信息需求的满足度,并以此满足度作为S&R系统效能度量的指标。仿真实例表明了新方法的有用性。     

IC卡技术在器材保障信息管理中的应用

主要就IC卡技术在我军器材保障信息管理中的初步应用,阐述了基于IC卡技术的便携式器材保障信息系统的特点和系统组成方案,并介绍了实现这种系统方案的关键技术.     

基于矢量分配的组合导航容错联邦滤波算法

针对高动态环境下飞行器组合导航系统因不确定故障导致导航精度下降的问题,提出了一种基于矢量信息分配的容错联邦滤波算法。设计矢量形式的故障检测函数,对各观测量进行单独的故障程度划分,克服了将故障子系统所有观测量同时隔离的缺陷;根据观测量是否异常,重构时变量测噪声矩阵和信息分配矢量系数,对子滤波器的状态变量进行信息分配,在隔离故障子系统异常观测量的同时,最大限度地利用正确观测信息。仿真结果表明,采用该算法能够充分发挥各导航子系统的优势,极大提高了导航子系统信息利用率,具有较高的精确性和容错性。