未来数字化战场中的指挥控制语言研究

针对未来数字化战场中机器人部队指挥控制与协同作战这一新兴研究领域需解决的机-机协同和人-机智能融合等问题,综述国内外相关领域的研究现状,分析了构建我军指挥控制语言的必要性,研究了机器人部队指挥控制语言的技术架构与关键技术,并提出了指挥控制语言的一种形式化语法和语义标注方法和通信协议,并结合海军舰艇作战示例分析了指挥控制语言的可行性及有效性。     

基于兰切斯特方程的网络中心战模型

为了更全面、客观地评价信息优势和决策优势对网络中心战进程的影响,在分析经典兰切斯特方程的基础上,引入信息?决策概率,提出了基于兰切斯特方程的网络中心战模型,仿真实验表明该模型能够有效地描述信息?决策概率在网络中心战进程中发挥的作用,为研究分析网络中心作战过程提供了理论参考。     

浅析消防业务信息系统的管理运维

消防业务信息系统日常运维任务是确保实时数据的可用性和完整性,信息能够得到及时处理应用,保障信息系统的正常运行及维护系统资源的安全.加强消防业务系统日常运维的管理标准,规范运维工作的方法,可以减少系统运维中不确定性因素,是提高消防业务工作质量和水平的重要保障.     

部队网络信息管理规律及策略研究

网络信息管理是新形势下部队管理工作的一项重要内容,对于促进官兵全面发展、加强部队行政管理、提升信息化建设具有重要意义,加强部队网络信息管理必须遵循共享与防范相结合、标本兼治和网络信息技术与官兵素质同步提高规律,从组织领导、官兵思想、安全防护、制度落实和网管人员建设五个方面构筑部队网络信息管理有效策略.     

Impact of reseller's and sales agent's forecasting accuracy in a multilayer supply chain

We consider a three‐layer supply chain with a manufacturer, a reseller, and a sales agent. The demand is stochastically determined by the random market condition and the sales agent's private effort level. Although the manufacturer is uninformed about the market condition, the reseller and the sales agent conduct demand forecasting and generate private demand signals. Under this framework with two levels of adverse selection intertwined with moral hazard, we study the impact of the reseller's and the sales agent's forecasting accuracy on the profitability of each member. We show that the manufacturer's profitability is convex on the reseller's forecasting accuracy. From the manufacturer's perspective, typically improving the reseller's accuracy is detrimental when the accuracy is low but is beneficial when it is high. We identify the concrete interrelation among the manufacturer‐optimal reseller's accuracy, the volatility of the market condition, and the sales agent's accuracy. Finally, the manufacturer's interest may be aligned with the reseller's when only the reseller can choose her accuracy; this alignment is never possible when both downstream players have the discretion to choose their accuracy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 207–222, 2014     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

Constructing a strict total order for alternatives characterized by multiple criteria: An extension

The problem of finding a strict total order for a finite set of multiple criteria alternatives is considered. Our research extends previous work by us, which considered finding a partial order for a finite set of alternatives. We merge the preference information extracted from the preference cones and corresponding polyhedral sets, with the information derived from pairwise comparisons of two alternatives, yielding a preference matrix. This preference matrix is used as input to an integer programming model to obtain a strict total order that provides a transitive ranking for the set of alternatives. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 155–163, 2014     

基于星历辅助的导航星座星间链路捕获初始信息求解算法

针对星间链路信号动态范围大、捕获时间要求短之间的矛盾,提出了一种捕获初始信息的求解算法。该算法基于导航星座的星历资源和动态特性,采用迭代的方法对信号传输时延和多普勒频率进行估计。分析指出,该算法实现过程简单,收敛速度快,估计精度高,两次迭代即可实现时延估计精度达到纳秒级,大大降低了捕获实现的难度和复杂度,适合星上资源要求比较严格的场合。分析基于北斗导航星座模型展开,对我国北斗导航星间链路的设计提供了参考。     

具有不完全信息语言多指标电子对抗计划优选方法

针对指标权重信息不完全且指标值为语言评价信息的电子对抗行动计划优选问题,给出了一种新的决策分析方法。首先建立并规范化了电子对抗行动计划的评价指标;其次给出了计划的优选步骤,其核心是通过计算理想点与计划值的距离、建立线性规划模型,确定指标权重;将语言评价信息转化为三角模糊数,相应地建立可能度,进而获得计划的综合评价值。最后通过算例分析说明了该方法的合理性和有效性。     

基于作战环路的指挥信息系统抗毁性建模与分析

在指挥信息系统抗毁性研究中,网络节点异质性和作战机理的表征与分析不足.针对该问题,基于指挥信息系统主导的观察、判断、决策和行动作战环路,区分网络中信息、指控、打击和通信4类节点,提出作战信息链的概念来反映指挥信息系统运行机理;采用平均时延来刻画作战信息链的时效性,通过转化为经过指定点的最短路径问题给出计算方法;采用链路贯通率来刻画全系统内信息节点和打击节点之间形成有效链路的程度.结合"预先规划+随遇接入"生成的指挥信息系统网络模型,进行了抗毁性仿真分析,验证了方法的有效性.仿真结果进一步表明,指挥信息系统网络在随机攻击和度优先攻击下抗毁性表现出了复杂网络的共性,但其抗毁性结果的异常变化也具有一定的特殊性,从而证实了节点异质性和系统作战机理的影响.