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131.
前景理论(Prospect Theory,PT)描述了个体在不确定条件下的决策规律,较好地刻画了决策者的风险偏好。分析表明,PT在作战决策建模中具有一定的适用性和可行性。提出了一种基于PT的计算机生成兵力(Computer Generated Forces,CGF)Agent决策建模方法,给出了CGF Agent的建模框架,对CGF Agent决策过程中方案选择的具体步骤和算法进行了详细阐述。实验表明,所提出的方法在一定程度上提高了CGF Agent决策行为的真实性,证明了所提出方法的有效性。 相似文献
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离散动态贝叶斯网络是对动态系统进行建模和定性推理的有力工具。由于观测证据会随时间增加,直接计算推理算法的公式会变得冗长而且推理速度还会下降。在直接计算推理算法的基础上推导出递推公式,并给出算例验证。递推计算公式简洁,仿真表明递推算法的推理速度较直接计算推理算法有明显提高,因而适合实时在线推理。最后将递推算法应用于航天器的态势感知。 相似文献
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In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009 相似文献
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Todas information and communication network requires a design that is secure to tampering. Traditional performance measures of reliability and throughput must be supplemented with measures of security. Recognition of an adversary who can inflict damage leads toward a game‐theoretic model. Through such a formulation, guidelines for network designs and improvements are derived. We opt for a design that is most robust to withstand both natural degradation and adversarial attacks. Extensive computational experience with such a model suggests that a Nash‐equilibrium design exists that can withstand the worst possible damage. Most important, the equilibrium is value‐free in that it is stable irrespective of the unit costs associated with reliability vs. capacity improvement and how one wishes to trade between throughput and reliability. This finding helps to pinpoint the most critical components in network design. From a policy standpoint, the model also allows the monetary value of information‐security to be imputed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009 相似文献
135.
Many manufacturers sell their products through retailers and share the revenue with those retailers. Given this phenomenon, we build a stylized model to investigate the role of revenue sharing schemes in supply chain coordination and product variety decisions. In our model, a monopolistic manufacturer serves two segments of consumers, which are distinguished by their willingness to pay for quality. In the scenario with exogenous revenue sharing ratios, when the potential gain from serving the low segment is substantial (e.g., the low‐segment consumers' willingness to pay is high enough or the low segment takes a large enough proportion of the market), the retailer is better off abandoning the revenue sharing scheme. Moreover, when the potential gain from serving the low (high) segment is substantial enough, the manufacturer finds it profitable to offer a single product. Furthermore, when revenue sharing ratios are endogenous, we divide our analysis into two cases, depending on the methods of cooperation. When revenue sharing ratios are negotiated at the very beginning, the decentralized supply chain causes further distortion. This suggests that the central premise of revenue sharing—the coordination of supply chains—may be undermined if supply chain parties meticulously bargain over it. 相似文献
136.
为了得到横向效应增强型弹(Penetration with Enhanced Lateral Efficiency projectile, PELE)对金属薄靶垂直侵彻后的弹体轴向剩余速度,运用平面冲击波理论,对PELE的侵彻机理进行分析。参照平头弹体对靶板的侵彻模型,将PELE侵彻过程中的能量损失划分为以下几个部分:外壳体和内芯撞靶区域对应的环形塞块获得的能量、冲击波作用下弹体的内能增量以及剪切耗能等。然后根据能量守恒原理,得到PELE垂直侵彻金属薄靶后的PELE弹体轴向剩余速度的理论模型。为了验证该模型的合理性和准确性,设计相应的试验进行验证。结果表明,不同条件下得到的试验结果和理论模型得到的计算结果均吻合得较好。因此,得到的PELE垂直侵彻薄靶的轴向剩余速度理论模型可为工程应用提供指导和参考。 相似文献
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