基于云模型的地空导弹武器假目标伪装效果评价

地空导弹武器假目标伪装效果评价中定性指标具有不确定性,云模型理论是定性概念与其定量表示之间的不确定性转换的数学工具,因此在构建地空导弹假目标伪装效果评价指标体系的基础上,提出基于云模型的假目标伪装效果评价方法,以解决评价指标的不确定性问题．通过实例的计算结果,验证了基于云模型的评价方法的可行性．研究结论表明应用云模型的评价结果具有直观性和科学性,该方法对伪装评价研究有一定的参考价值．     

Russia,America and missile defense

Russia has sharply objected to US plans for ballistic missile defense. The Russian official explanation is that the real purpose of the US missile defense plan is to make it impossible for Russia to retaliate against a US nuclear (or massive conventional) attack, thus making Russia subject to military blackmail by the US. The Russian response has been the result of a sum total of various factors, mostly political and cultural, while the technical capabilities of the proposed system have played a secondary role.     

Properties of the geometric and related processes

Some properties of the geometric process are studied along with those of a related process which we propose to call the α‐series process. It is shown that the expected number of counts at an arbitrary time does not exist for the decreasing geometric process. The decreasing version of the α‐series process does have a finite expected number of counts, under certain conditions. This process also has the same advantages of tractability as the geometric process; it exhibits some properties which may make it a useful complement to the increasing geometric process. In addition, it may be fit to observed data as easily as the geometric process. Applications in reliability and stochastic scheduling are considered in order to demonstrate the versatility of the alternative model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

基于改进核极限学习机和集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测

为了提高目标轨迹预测的精度以及预测模型的泛化能力,提出基于改进蝙蝠算法优化的核极限学习机(Kernel Extreme Learning Machine,KELM)和集成学习理论目标机动轨迹预测模型。构建KELM模型,并采用改进的蝙蝠算法对KELM的参数进行优化;以优化后的KELM神经网络为弱预测器,结合集成学习算法生成强预测器,通过训练不断优化强预测的结构和参数,得到一种基于集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测模型;基于不同规模的样本,将所得预测模型与逆传播神经网络、支持向量机和极限学习机等模型进行对比分析。仿真结果表明:所提目标机动轨迹预测模型具有较好的预测精度和泛化能力。     

Bending and stress analysis of polymeric composite plates reinforced with functionally graded graphene platelets based on sinusoidal shear-deformation plate theory

The bending and stress analysis of a functionally graded polymer composite plate reinforced with gra-phene platelets are studied in this paper. The governing equations are derived by using principle of virtual work for a plate which is rested on Pasternak's foundation. Sinusoidal shear deformation theory is used to describe displacementfield. Four different distribution patterns are employed in our analysis. The analytical solution is presented for a functionally graded plate to investigate the influence of important parameters. The numerical results are presented to show the deflection and stress results of the problem for four employed patterns in terms of geometric parameters such as number of layers, weight fraction and two parameters of Pasternak's foundation.     

On vibration analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube reinforced magneto-electro-elastic plates with different electro-magnetic conditions using higher order finite element methods

This article deals with evaluating the frequency response of functionally graded carbon nanotube rein-forced magneto-electro-elastic (FG-CNTMEE) plates subjected to open and closed electro-magnetic cir-cuit conditions. In this regard finite element formulation has been derived. The plate kinematics adjudged via higher order shear deformation theory (HSDT) is considered for evaluation. The equations of motion are obtained with the help of Hamilton's principle and solved using condensation technique. It is found that the convergence and accuracy of the present FE formulation is very good to address the vibration problem of FG-CNTMEE plate. For the first time, frequency response analysis of FG-CNTMEE plates considering the effect of various circuit conditions associated with parameters such as CNT dis-tributions, volume fraction, skew angle, aspect ratio, length-to-thickness ratio and coupling fields has been carried out. The results of this article can serve as benchmark for future development and analysis of smart structures.     

随机性理论在情报监视侦察建模中的应用

情报、监视、侦察(ISR)建模是战役级作战仿真建模的重点和难点,在仿真中不仅要求ISR模型能够准确地反映战场空间实体之间的感知交互,同时还要有较高的运行速度。为了解决此问题,以随机性理论为基础进行情报监视侦察的建模仿真,以区域侦察飞行器图像情报的建模全流程为例,阐述其主要环节的建模方法,并通过仿真实验验证了该套建模方法的适用性和有效性。与传统的确定性ISR建模方法相比,该方法在保证仿真精度的同时提高了运行效率,为战役级作战仿真中C4ISR建模与仿真提供了参考方法。     

TBM模型的目标综合识别算法

利用电子支援措施(ESM)和光学成像传感器等不同类型传感器进行目标综合识别,是现代综合电子战中的一个重要研究课题。TBM是D-S证据理论的一个扩展模型,它研究了D-S证据理论的动态部分,从数据融合的角度来看,它是一种层次化的递进模型,尤其适用于需要逐层进行数据、特征或决策级融合的融合系统。提出了一种基于TBM模型的异类传感器目标综合识别算法,充分利用了电子侦察和光学成像侦察提供的独立、互补的信息,获得了对目标的有效识别。仿真结果证明了这种算法的有效性。     

单一来源装备采办下定价策略的博弈分析

单一来源装备采办下,由于供应商在装备的定价与装备的升级改造上都存在 相对的比较优势,军方引入渐进式采办来改变自身的不利地位 应用博弈论的观点来对单 一来源装备采办下军方与供应商定价问题进行比较,实现了对单一来源装备采办与竞争策 略下各自收益分析,并用不定次重复博弈对渐进式采办进行了定量分析,对在实际采办过程 中如何实现激励合同和防止腐败问题也进行了理论上的论述。     

Safe distances

This work highlights the problem in military operations of setting safety limits for friendly forces, neutral forces, or civilians, to avoid sustaining unnecessary casualties both in wartime and in training. We present and investigate an analytic model which both enables the quantitative understanding of the inherent problems, and which furnishes a reasonably flexible tool in the hands of the analyst. Characteristic numerical results are displayed and analyzed: They show in particular that prevailing crude approximations are inadequate. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 259–269, 2001