基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法

针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。     

Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with interval censored samples

This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans (BSP) with interval censored samples. First, an algorithm for deriving the conventional BSP is proposed. The BSP is shown to possess some monotonicity. Based on the BSP and using the property of monotonicity, a new sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure is proposed. The resulting curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) can reduce the duration time of life test experiment, and it is optimal in the sense that its associated Bayes risk is smaller than the Bayes risk of the BSP if the cost of the duration time of life test experiment is considered. A numerical example to compute the Bayes risks of BSP and CBSP and related quantities is given. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the CBSP compared with the BSP. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed CBSP has better performance because it has smaller risk. The CBSP is recommended. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 604–616, 2015     

半自动输弹机模糊控制系统

针对某半自动输弹机系统实际的输弹过程,提出了模糊控制系统的控制方案,根据本输弹机系统的模型设计了模糊控制参数。运用Matlab/Simulink仿真软件分别对采用模糊控制的系统和采用普通PID控制算法的系统进行仿真,得到各系统的单位阶跃响应曲线图和抗干扰信号图。对输弹机进行上炮试验,对比采用模糊控制的系统和采用普通PID控制算法的系统的实验结果,得到采用模糊算法的输弹机系统的卡膛一致性能很好的满足要求,具有一定的实践意义。     

战略后方仓库综合技术保障中心建设方案评估

构建了后方仓库综合技术保障中心建设方案综合评估指标体系,先运用多人层次分析法对评价指标进行主观赋权,再对指标权值加以客观修正,从而得到较为客观准确的综合权重,最后运用模糊综合评价法对若干备选方案进行评判,得到各备选方案的评级结果,并从中选择最优方案。算例分析表明,该方法能够较好地适用于建设方案的评价,得出的量化描述结果可以作为建设方案评判与选择的参考依据。     

Turkey-Africa alliance: Evolving patterns in security relations

ABSTRACT

Turkey has maintained its strategic relations with Africa at the highest level under recent AK Party governments in the field not only of low politics but also of high politics. For example, it opened its largest overseas military base in Somalia in 2017 and signed military, defense and security pacts with more than 25 African countries. This article traces the deep historical and cultural relations with Africa behind its newly evolving foreign policy identity, arguing that its booming economic power has been a significant driving force in shaping a new security strategy. It examines what the growing security involvement means for both Turkey and Africa in order to contribute to the relevant literature through a holistic approach from both theoretical and conceptual perspectives.     

Re-thinking the Unthinkable: Arms Control in the Twenty-First Century

ABSTRACT

Since the end of the Cold War, arms control proponents tried to make the case for deep nuclear reductions and other forms of security cooperation as necessary for strategic stability. While different versions of strategic stability analysis did sometimes produce innovative proposals, constructive negotiations, and successful ratification campaigns in the past, this analytical framework has become more of a hindrance than a help. Treating arms control as a predominantly technical way to make deterrence more stable by changing force structure characteristics, military operations, relative numbers of weapons on either side, or total number of nuclear weapons gives short shrift to political factors, including the fundamental assumptions about world politics that inform different arms control logics, the quality of political relations among leading states, and the political processes that affect negotiation, ratification, and implementation. This article compares two logics for arms control as a means to enhance strategic stability, one developed by the Cambridge community in the 1960s and one used by the Reagan administration and its successors, with current perspectives on strategic stability in which flexibility and freedom of action are preferable to predictability and arms control. It also contrasts what the Barack Obama administration has tried to achieve through strategic stability dialogues with Russia and China with how they envision security cooperation. It then presents an approach developed during the Cold War by Hedley Bull for thinking about both the technical and the political dimensions of arms control, and suggests that the logic of Cooperative Security (which shares important features with Bull's approach) is a more appropriate and productive way to think about arms control in the twenty-first century than strategic stability analysis is.     

基于理想点距离算法的灭火作战方案优选

分析了传统的灭火作战方案优选方法存在的弊端,提出了基于模糊集理论的计算理想点距离的优选法,明确了语言变量与模糊集理论的相关定义,规定了模糊评价语言与三角模糊数的换算方法,阐述了理想点距离的计算方法,建立了灭火作战方案优选模型,验证了该方法在灭火作战方案优选方面的科学性、有效性以及合理性.     

实现强军目标“三进入”的主题内涵与途径

政治理论教学作为传授党的创新理论的主阵地,在强军目标“三进入”中发挥着举足轻重的作用。扎实推进强军目标“三进入”,必须坚持把培养高素质军事人才作为根本要求,积极搭建教学平台,不断拓展基本途径,从而不断提升“三进入”的质量效果。     

微波雷达海杂波混沌特性分析

随着非线性学科的发展,混沌科学受到各个学科领域的广泛重视,海杂波的混沌特性吸引越来越多的科研人员开始探索混沌理论在雷达系统中的应用。介绍了混沌理论的起源和发展趋势,简要阐述了混沌定义,给出了混沌的奇异吸引子、相图与Poincare截面、相关维及Lyapunov指数等基本特性,并基于混沌时间序列的关联积分C-C法、相空间重构法及小数据量法等混沌特性研究方法,对微波雷达实际采集的海杂波数据进行了混沌特性分析,分析结果表明,微波雷达海杂波数据具有混沌特征。     

多彩光谱教育理论与音乐、绘画融通的教学实践

音乐与绘画的融通问题长期以来一直缺乏充分、深入的研究,在教育领域也是如此。本文援引多个教学案例,借鉴多彩光谱教育理论,从教学目标、教学设计、教学步骤、实施方法诸方面来阐释和解决音乐与绘画的融通在教学实践中出现的问题。