Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

Asymmetric information and third-party intervention in civil wars

I study a two-period model of conflict with two combatants and a third party who is an ally of one of the combatants. The third party is fully informed about the type of her ally but not about the type of her ally’s enemy. In a signaling game, I find that if the third party is unable to give a sufficiently high assistance to her ally, then there exists a unique separating equilibrium in which the third party’s expected intervention causes her ally’s enemy to exert more effort than in the absence of third-party intervention; this worsens the conflict.     

地空导弹发控系统寿命预测的组合模型

将灰色系统理论和BP神经网络有效地结合起来,建立了灰色BP神经网络的组合预测模型,并采用遗传算法对该模型进行优化。为了验证优化后模型的有效性,采用灰色BP神经网络的预测结果进行对比分析。实际数据的预测结果表明,优化之后的模型比单独采用灰色BP神经网络,具有更小的均方差(MSE,Mean Square Error),对发控系统剩余寿命(RUL,Remaining Useful Life)也具有更高的预测精度。     

新征程军事指导理论创新发展

十八大以来,习主席关于国防和军队建设重要论述,体现了我党军事指导理论的创新发展,既是习主席治国理政思想在军事领域的重要体现,也处处体现了辩证唯物主义的思想方法。学习贯彻习主席关于国防和军队建设的重要论述,必须牢牢把握其思想精华,把意志和力量凝聚到实现中国梦强军梦上来,推动国防和军队建设的创新发展。     

Model Versions and Fast Algorithms for Network Epidemiology

Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreadingof infectious diseases. In network epidemiology, one represents the contact structure as a network of nodes（individuals） connected bylinks（sometimes as a temporal network where the links are not continuously active） and the disease as a compartmental model（whereindividuals are assigned states with respect to the disease and follow certain transition rules between the states）. In this paper, we discussfast algorithms for such simulations and also compare two commonly used versions,one where there is a constant recovery rate（the numberof individuals that stop being infectious per time is proportional to the number of such people）;the other where the duration of the diseaseis constant. The results show that, for most practical purposes, these versions are qualitatively the same.     

高校思想政治理论课程管理初探

高校思想政治理论课程管理具有丰富的内涵和广阔的外延,是高校思想政治理论课程建设中一个最基本、最核心的话题,也是一个崭新的研究领域。当前高校思想政治理论课程管理存在管理理论缺乏、发展缓慢,管理结构分化、目标偏离,管理力量薄弱、意识淡薄,管理手段单一、效率低下等弊端。因此,高校思想政治理论课程管理变革是一个复杂的系统工程,变革的内容包括：重点加强课程管理方法论研究,构建共享、整合型课程领导体制,优化课程管理队伍素质结构,构建多元、综合的课程管理手段体系。     

关于重演理论的实证调查与分析

重演理论是数学史与数学教育整合的重要理论基础.通过调查学生对负数大小的识别,发现数学的历史发展过程与学生的认知过程有着一定的相似性,可以利用重演理论来构建数学课程.一方面,运用重演理论反思教学内容编排的合理性,对知识的呈现顺序进行更为合理的设计,对课程的整体设置进行更适切的把握;另一方面,在针对某一知识点进行教学设计时,通过研究数学史,对学生的认知障碍进行预先分析,结合史实资源开拓学生思维,使学生对知识的理解更加多元、更加深入.     

网络中心式空战仿真研究

将网络中心战思想引入空战仿真研究,提出基于复杂适应系统理论的网络中心式空战模型.对网络中心式空战子模型进行设计,使空战单元根据对局部环境的感知所获取的态势信息来调整自身个性,调整规则依据约束变量的设定和决策元规则.通过仿真实验着重考察了具有自适应性的空战单元在空战对抗中的作战表现,实验结果初步验证了其战斗效能优势.     

基于Bayes理论的装备维修性验证方法

针对装甲装备关键部件维修性验证中出现的小子样问题,提出了基于Bayes理论的小子样维修性验证,重点针对对数正态分布下维修性指标验证的验后似然比验证方法进行了深入研究。通过对装甲装备某关键部件的试验数据的实例分析,验证了该方法在减少样本容量及试验费用方面的有效性和合理性。     

一种基于新的冲突系数的证据组合规则

从焦元为非单元素集合的角度出发,考虑焦元之间存在相等、包含、相交的关系,对焦元mass函数进行细分计算,得到一种新的冲突系数计算方法。将该方法应用到新的证据组合规则之中,并通过数值仿真实验验证了新的证据组合规则的有效性。