Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with interval censored samples

This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans (BSP) with interval censored samples. First, an algorithm for deriving the conventional BSP is proposed. The BSP is shown to possess some monotonicity. Based on the BSP and using the property of monotonicity, a new sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure is proposed. The resulting curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) can reduce the duration time of life test experiment, and it is optimal in the sense that its associated Bayes risk is smaller than the Bayes risk of the BSP if the cost of the duration time of life test experiment is considered. A numerical example to compute the Bayes risks of BSP and CBSP and related quantities is given. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the CBSP compared with the BSP. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed CBSP has better performance because it has smaller risk. The CBSP is recommended. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 604–616, 2015     

基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法

针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。     

半自动输弹机模糊控制系统

针对某半自动输弹机系统实际的输弹过程,提出了模糊控制系统的控制方案,根据本输弹机系统的模型设计了模糊控制参数。运用Matlab/Simulink仿真软件分别对采用模糊控制的系统和采用普通PID控制算法的系统进行仿真,得到各系统的单位阶跃响应曲线图和抗干扰信号图。对输弹机进行上炮试验,对比采用模糊控制的系统和采用普通PID控制算法的系统的实验结果,得到采用模糊算法的输弹机系统的卡膛一致性能很好的满足要求,具有一定的实践意义。     

战略后方仓库综合技术保障中心建设方案评估

构建了后方仓库综合技术保障中心建设方案综合评估指标体系,先运用多人层次分析法对评价指标进行主观赋权,再对指标权值加以客观修正,从而得到较为客观准确的综合权重,最后运用模糊综合评价法对若干备选方案进行评判,得到各备选方案的评级结果,并从中选择最优方案。算例分析表明,该方法能够较好地适用于建设方案的评价,得出的量化描述结果可以作为建设方案评判与选择的参考依据。     

Designing rewards-based crowdfunding campaigns for strategic (but distracted) contributors

In rewards-based crowdfunding, entrepreneurs solicit donations from a large number of individual contributors. If total donations exceed a prespecified funding target, the entrepreneur distributes nonmonetary rewards to contributors; otherwise, their donations are refunded. We study how to design such campaigns when contributors choose not just whether to contribute, but also when to contribute. We show that strategic contribution behavior—when contributors intentionally delay until campaign success is likely—can arise from the combination of nonrefundable (potentially very small) hassle costs and the risk of campaign failure, and can explain pledging patterns commonly observed in crowdfunding. Furthermore, such delays do not hurt the entrepreneur if contributors are perfectly rational, but they do if contributors are distracted, that is, if they might fail to return to the campaign after an intentional delay. To mitigate this, we find that an entrepreneur can use a simple menu of rewards with a fixed number of units sold at a low price, and an unlimited number sold at a higher price; this segments contributors over time based on the information they observe upon arrival. We show that, despite its simplicity, such a menu performs well compared to a theoretically optimal menu consisting of an infinite number of different rewards and price levels under many conditions.     

兵力增援微分对策优化模型及解法

研究了对抗双方的兵力增援问题 ,建立了兵力增援微分对策优化理论模型及其最优性条件 ,给出了兵力增援的最优策略。研究结果对作战方案的制定、评价和作战指挥决策具有理论指导意义。     

模糊多目标群决策的装备采办问题研究

对模糊多目标群决策的装备采办问题,根据模糊数学理论和多目标决策理论方法,综合现有各种方法的优点,给出了无约束条件下模糊多目标群决策的装备采办问题的一般解法,并通过实例说明了该方法的有效性及通用性。     

电流密度方程的相对论协变式

从相对论协变性原理出发,得到了电流密度方程满足相对论协变性的自洽展开式.研究表明,只有在考虑了磁场对电流密度的影响情况下,才能得到电流密度四维矢量的自洽的相对论协变式.为满足相对论协变性,电流密度关于电磁场的三阶近似方程应该包括电场强度的三次方非线性项.     

基于灰局势决策理论的维修级别分析方法

简要介绍了某型无人机维修级别分析及灰局势决策理论的一般概念,针对传统维修级别分析中经济性分析的数据来源广、模型可信度较差的情况,研究基于灰局势决策原理建模的一般方法,通过筛选原始数据并修正计算公式,大大减少了冗余计算,最后运用这一模型对某机载无线电设备进行了经济性分析。     

装备保障信息化研究初探

装备保障信息化是我军装备保障工作的发展方向,但目前尚无系统理论的指引,现借鉴外军经验,结合从事我军现阶段装备保障信息化工作的体会,较系统地对装备保障信息化的概念、外延、内涵、目标和建设原则与应优先考虑的问题等,作出了探索性地阐述,以期推动我军装备保障信息化理论的形成与发展.