The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

FMEA与粗糙集相结合的故障预测方法

基于FMEA和粗糙集决策系统基本理论,对飞机中分系统故障预测问题进行了研究。首先定义故障预测所需的征兆并对系统进行FMEA,按照FMEA分析结果分次向系统模型注入引起特定故障的事件,采集含有故障趋势的系统模型的信息用于构建适用于故障预测的粗糙集决策表,对该表进行了处理,最终发现用于故障预测的知识(即决策规则和算法);最后运用所发现的知识进行故障预测。     

基于层间嵌入式多级支持向量机的特征选择

针对多故障样本一次性映射之后分类不理想,研究了多级层次式支持向量机,应用UCI数据仿真,结果表明该方法缩短了训练时间、提升了测试准确率、改善了样本的可分类性。由于误差积累,在此基础上,提出了层间嵌入式多级支持向量机,采用Abalone数据仿真,结果表明分类精度有所提高并减少了分类步骤。结合ReliefF算法,对制导设备的故障特征参数进行了选择。     

脉冲多普勒雷达对运动目标回波信号的检测

分析了倒置接收对目标回波信噪比和杂波特性的影响 ,讨论了在相关杂波区对回波信号有效检测的方法。针对如何在“弹 -目”相对运动参数未知条件下对高速运动目标进行积累检测这一问题 ,提出了一种多周期移位积累的新方法     

战区防空雷达组网系统体系结构及通信链路研究

针对优化现役战区防空雷达系统的部署结构,提高其战时稳定性、提升其整体作战效能的问题,提出了一种“雷达组网系统”实用研发对策,并对其具体的系统体系结构、雷达群站系统构成、信息链路等问题进行了探讨和研究。     

可压缩流动压力修正方程分析

依据Ｐａｔａｎｋａｒ提出的差分方程稳定性判断的４项基本法则,对可压缩流动的压力修正方程进行了分析,得出压力修正方程系数为正的条件．指出在每一次求解压力修正方程时必须提高解的收敛程度,以保证下一次迭代的差分方程矩阵接近主对角占优．分析了速度离散方程的欠松驰因子对可压缩流压力修正方程的影响．     

用Maple设计回归分析实验课件

本文介绍在 Ｍａｐｌｅ上以测弹性模量为例制作的回归分析实验课件,课件具有可观性、交互性、文本交流等特性,并拥有 Ｍａｐｌｅ的资源,便于学习使用,可以用于解决实验数据处理的回归问题。     

具有规范化的四元数递推计算的公式误差估计

对捷联式制导系统中目前常用的四元数递推公式进行误差估计,给出利用观测数据计算四元数的误差界的公式,还介绍了保持四元数范数不变的一类递推公式。     

Periodic review inventory management with contingent use of two freight modes with fixed costs

We study a stochastic inventory model of a firm that periodically orders a product from a make‐to‐order manufacturer. Orders can be shipped by a combination of two freight modes that differ in lead‐times and costs, although orders are not allowed to cross. Placing an order as well as each use of each freight mode has a fixed and a quantity proportional cost. The decision of how to allocate units between the two freight modes utilizes information about demand during the completion of manufacturing. We derive the optimal freight mode allocation policy, and show that the optimal policy for placing orders is not an (s,S) policy in general. We provide tight bounds for the optimal policy that can be calculated by solving single period problems. Our analysis enables insights into the structure of the optimal policy specifying the conditions under which it simplifies to an (s,S) policy. We characterize the best (s,S) policy for our model, and through extensive numerical investigation show that its performance is comparable with the optimal policy in most cases. Our numerical study also sheds light on the benefits of the dual freight model over the single freight models. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于聚类算法的多无人机系统任务分配

针对现有任务分配方法在任务点较多时不易解算,且计算量大的问题,提出了基于模糊C-均值聚类算法的多无人机系统任务分配方法.首先,利用模糊C-均值聚类算法得到的隶属度矩阵对任务点进行初始分配;其次,针对基于空间划分聚类可能造成各UAV任务不均衡的问题,设计任务的局部优化调整规则;最后,结合单旅行商问题,利用Tabu Sea...