Are the Baltic States and NATO on the right path in deterring Russia in the Baltic?

ABSTRACT

The aim of the current study is to discuss which particular factors Russia considers as sufficient deterrent capabilities and whether the national defence models implemented in the Baltic countries have the potential to deter Russia's military planners and political leadership. Whilst the existing conventional reserves of NATO are sizeable, secure, and rapid, deployment is still a critical variable in case of a conflict in the Baltic countries because of the limited range of safe transportation options. However, whilst the Baltic States are developing their capabilities according to the priorities defined by NATO in 2010; which were updated after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Russian military planners have meanwhile redesigned both their military doctrine and military forces, learning from the experience of the Russo-Georgian war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other recent confrontations. Accordingly, there is a risk that the efforts of the Baltic countries could prove rather inefficient in deterring Russia.     

公安边防部队处置无直接利益冲突群体性事件对策研究

无直接利益冲突群体性事件有5个特点,即间接性、特定性、辐射性、关联性、暴力性.引发无直接利益冲突群体性事件的原因主要有4个方面：一是我国正处于社会转型期,贫富差距突出,矛盾多发;二是基层公共权力机关公信力下降和利益诉求渠道阻塞;三是法律意识淡薄和社会认同感降低;四是心理匿名感和信息的快速传播.研究应对无直接利益冲突群体性事件对策具有重要的现实意义.     

谈提高消防部队会计人员素质

当前,随着消防部队财务工作的不断改革发展,会计人员素质已成为制约消防部队财务管理水平提高的一个＂瓶颈＂。在分析消防部队会计人员素质现状的基础上,从消防部队会计人员知识层次、职业技能、职业道德三个方面提出了提高消防部队会计人员素质的措施。     

基于蚁群算法的防空兵兵力机动线路优化

根据防空兵对机动线路的要求以及战时的安全性特点,得出影响防空兵兵力机动线路选择的因素,引入里程指数的概念,将线路的长度进行修正赋权,给出兵力机动线路的等效线路长度。把这一等效线路长度结合到蚁群算法中,能够较好地模拟现代战场的复杂环境对防空兵兵力机动路线的影响,并能科学、合理地选择路线,为指挥员的决策提供帮助。     

以强军目标为统领 深化武警院校学科建设

针对学科建设在院校发展、人才培养中的重要作用,结合武警院校学科建设实际,探讨了如何以强军目标为牵引,把握武警院校学科建设着力点应关注的问题。强军目标指向清晰,决定人才培养目的,必须突出学科发展重点;强军目标内容完整,提出人才培养要求,必须优化学科体系架构;强军目标任务繁重,需要人才培养支撑,必须加大学科建设力度。     

资源约束条件下的空中兵力编组

通过对空中兵力的合理编组,实现作战资源的优化配置是提升兵力作战效能的有效途径。针对现代空战编队对抗过程的特点,从战术企图和信息优势角度提出了编队目标威胁评估方法。以编队目标为研究对象从宏观上调配己方作战资源,提出了作战资源成本和兵力调度成本2种兵力编组成本,在此基础上建立了资源约束条件下的兵力编组优化模型,并采用改进PSO算法对模型进行求解。作战想定仿真结果表明兵力编组模型能够有效解决空战兵力分配问题。     

弹药保障CGF智能决策模型研究与实现

弹药保障CGF智能决策系统是装备保障效能评估系统必不可少的组成部分,其核心是对人类决策行为的建模与仿真.在介绍智能决策含义和决策过程的基础上,重点研究和分析了CGF智能决策行为,构建了CGF智能决策模型.针对决策过程中由于无法获得人脑思维方式而导致行为模型的表达、描述、推理等受到怀疑的问题,在弹药保障CGF智能决策模型中,将决策行为分解为任务决策、过程决策和动作决策3个步骤,接近于人类思维方式.同时,对实现弹药保障CGF智能决策具有关键作用的任务决策原则、过程决策方法和动作决策规则进行了研究,并给出了应用实例.实例证明,弹药保障CGF智能决策方法逻辑清晰,易于理解和维护,便于实现.     

The structural origins of social cohesion: the dynamics of micro-solidarity in 1991–1995 Wars of Yugoslav Succession

This article explores the dynamics of social cohesion on the frontline. It attempts to show how micro-level solidarities largely depend on macro level organisational processes. I argue that frontline social cohesion is often the product of social development linked with the organisational structure. This general argument is applied to the case studies of two armed forces involved in the 1991–1995 Wars of Yugoslav Succession – the Croatian Army (HV) and the Bosnian Serb Army (VRS). Drawing on in-depth interviews with the former combatants I show how HV social cohesion played an important role in winning the war and how these networks of micro-level solidarity were shaped by long term organisational development.