地面防空兵应对干扰吊舱和反辐射导弹的侧击战术策略理论分析

根据当前地空导弹武器系统受干扰吊舱和反辐射导弹威胁导致其作战能力下降的作战实践,本文首先提出了一种可有效打击进犯之敌、保全自身的侧击战术;其次,对该侧击战术进行军事建模,分析了飞行器从开始转弯到照射制导雷达进入其攻击范围期间,飞行器速度、攻击角度范围、转弯时的坡度角及航线与雷达间的航路捷径等因素对飞行器转弯时间造成的影响,并结合防空作战过程、避开空中威胁相关因素,给出了照射制导雷达辐射时机的标准;最后提出了确保侧击战术成功运用应的意见建议,并根据其操作难度指出人工智能运用于军事领域的必要性。希冀本研究能够为地面防空兵应对干扰吊舱和反辐射导弹的侧击战术提供一定理论参考。     

舰炮随动系统的现状及其发展

本文从现代战争对舰炮随动系统所提出的战技要求出发,对其现状在性能指标、结构类型、辅助装置、总体配置及理论基础等方面进行了简略分析,并就瞄准系统采用自适应控制及智能控制等发展方向提出了看法。     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

Building A New Luftwaffe: The United States Air Force and Bundeswehr Planning for Rearmament, 1950–60

Rearming Germany was a long and complicated process. It was especially difficult to create a new German air force. The army generals who dominated the Bundeswehr cadre did not even want an air force but rather a small arm air corps. Moreover, Adenauer's defense staff failed to adequately budget or plan for a new air force. As rearmament began, US Air Force leaders, working closely with the small Luftwaffe staff in West Germany's shadow Defense Ministry, basically took charge of the process to ensure that the Germans built a new Luftwaffe on the American model – a large, multipurpose force organized as an independent service and fully integrated into NATO. The first Bundesluftwaffe commanders allied themselves to the Americans, often in opposition to their army comrades, to overcome the political problems caused by Adenauer's poor defense planning and create a modern air force on American lines.     

The failure of defense planning in European Post-Communist Defense Institutions: ascertaining causation and determining solutions

By any objective measure, defense institutions in Central and Eastern Europe have all but universally been incapable of producing viable defense plans that are based on objective costing and operational planning data. This situation exists in spite the provision of considerable Western advice and assistance, let alone reporting to and receiving assessments by NATO’s International Staff under Partnership for Peace, as well as via the integrated defense planning and reporting systems. An explanation for this systematic failure across European post-Communist defense institutions can be found in the continued slow development of an over-arching policy framework which directs and approves all activities of the armed forces, as well as the de-centralization of financial decision-making down to capability providers. The essay ends with an examination of the adverse effects of the early introduction of planning programming, budgeting system (PPBS), have had on the development of effective policy and planning capabilities within these defense institutions.     

A Novel Framework for Safeguarding Naval Nuclear Material

ABSTRACT

The present international standard allows non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) to forego safeguards when nuclear material is used in a “non-proscribed military activity,” though no criteria have been established to determine when NNWS can remove naval nuclear material from safeguards. Though at present, only nuclear-armed states possess nuclear submarines, the global nuclear naval landscape may soon change with the advancement of Brazil's fledgling program and the possible precedent it would set for other NNWS. A framework is needed to shore up nuclear security and prevent nuclear material diversion from the nuclear naval sector. Proposed and existing nonproliferation frameworks, including a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty and commitments through the nuclear security summits, are insufficient to close this loophole. A Naval Use Safeguards Agreement (NUSA), modeled after the Additional Protocol of the International Atomic Energy Agency, would provide a framework to remove the opacity surrounding nuclear material in the naval sector. Designed for NNWS and encouraged as confidence-building measures for nuclear weapon states, NUSA would explicitly outline those stages in the naval nuclear fuel cycle where safeguards are to be applied and in what context. This viewpoint also further provides direction for targeted research and development in technical naval nuclear safeguards solutions.     

Planning for the next Takur Ghar

The USA is currently facing an increasingly diverse range of threats, including non-state actors, particularly violent extremist organizations attempting to do harm. The national leadership has made it clear that for the near future it will employ Special Operations Forces (SOF) as the tool of choice in short-duration, high-intensity operations that have more in common with the battle of Takur Ghar, than those with a larger footprint. It is critical then that the lessons of the past are learnt now and are applied before employing SOF in the future. This becomes especially important given the short lead-time in concert with the short-duration/high-intensity tempo of their operations. In the Battle of Takur Ghar, during Operation Anaconda, rigid adherence to the joint functions, especially clearer and more robust Command and Control (C2) and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) in the planning and execution of Operation Anaconda would have yielded a better operational outcome and saved lives. With the benefit of hindsight, many things could have been done differently, but several key issues stand out. The C2 structure must include all components from the outset to synchronize effects and rapidly re-task ISR. There must be multiple communications redundancies and adequate bandwidth. Finally, all SOF, conventional and interagency capabilities must be synchronized under one task force commander with a sufficiently robust C2 infrastructure to direct the entire effort. As our nation calls on SOF at an ever-increasing rate, we must take those lessons learned and apply them to future operations.     

大中亚区域禁毒警务合作初探——以“金新月”毒品问题国际化为视角

面对“金新月”毒品问题日益国际化,在中亚各国复杂多变的政治、经济、民族、宗教背景下,迫切需要各方共同努力,创设、发展出一种更加灵活、高效、有针对性的禁毒合作机制,以应对该地区越来越严峻的毒品扩散问题及其引发的相关社会秩序危害。阐述了“金新月”毒情发展及其对周边国家的影响,分析了大中亚区域禁毒警务合作的必要性,探讨了大中亚禁毒警务合作模式的选择,以创设出一种立体的、全方位的、有较强执行力的区域禁毒合作模式。     

Understanding the ‘failure’ of the Séléka rebellion

This paper examines the downfall of the Séléka rebellion, which staged a coup in the Central African Republic in March 2013. The coup plunged the country into violence and chaos, and there has been an uneasy quest for peace ever since. This article explains why the leader of the rebellion lost control over his troops and was finally pushed by regional actors to leave power. The article concludes that the Séléka rebellion was already fragile and, together with the poor leadership demonstrated by the coalition leader, the rebellion was unable to hold on to power.     

装备综合物流保障网络智能决策支持技术

为了提高军事装备综合物流保障决策的科学性、实时性,摆脱以往单纯依靠经验总结和历史数据积累为主的保障决策方式,利用图论的理论算法和分布式计算机网络技术等,对保障任务自动生成满足各种保障要求的决策方案,不仅更加快速准确,而且为装备综合物流保障工作提供了一个战平结合的决策支持平台。