【专题】登陆破障装备技术发展应用述评

登陆破障行动是联合登陆战斗中各军兵种破障力量在敌预先设置和临机设置的各种障碍物中开辟通路的行动,也是确保登陆兵突击上陆和向纵深发展进攻的前提和关键。进入21世纪,随着高新技术的不断发展,传统的破障装备和手段已经不能适应新的战场,各种新式障碍相继出现,对登陆部队的破障能力提出更高要求,破障装备体系化、破障手段精确化以及破障过程无人化成为未来破障技术的重要发展方向。本文首先简要介绍了当前世界主流的破障装备和手段,并论述了其局限性,如破障效率低、人员和弹药消耗量大以及容易形成二次障碍等,然后从破障装备体系化、破障手段精确化和破障过程无人能化三个方面对未来破障装备技术发展趋势进行了展望。     

【专题】人工智能装备质量监督效能研究

近年来,人工智能技术迅速发展和渐趋成熟,在装备领域的应用大放异彩,极大地拓展了传统装备性能,特别是自主性和智能化水平。但人工智能算法本身固有的逻辑推理性差、具有不可解释性和需要学习训练等特性给人工智能装备的质量监督带来了新挑战,现有评价手段的欠缺也使人工智能装备发展在实用可靠方面充满不确定性。本文在总结归纳人工智能装备新特性拓展和质量监督新挑战的基础上,重点围绕有效提升人工智能装备的质量监督展开研究。提出应在夯实基础能力设施建设、注重日常数据采集整理、灵活技术状态管控、研究有效评价手段、强化人才队伍建设和闭环质量信息反馈与利用等六方面加强人工智能装备质量监督的措施建议,以期为人工智能装备的发展建设提供参考。     

Stalking the Secure Second Strike: Intelligence,Counterforce, and Nuclear Strategy

Secure second strike nuclear forces are frequently held to be easy to procure. Analysts have long argued that targeting intelligence against relocatable targets like submarine launched and land mobile ballistic missiles is difficult to obtain. However, the scholarly consensus on intelligence for counterforce operations is seriously overdrawn. Both during and after the Cold War, the United States developed substantial intelligence capabilities to track and target submarines and mobile missiles. These efforts achieved important and under-appreciated success. Second strike forces have been far more vulnerable than most analysts are willing to credit.     

Deferred verification: the role of new verification technologies and approaches

ABSTRACT

Researchers have recently proposed a new approach to nuclear-arms-control verification, dubbed “deferred verification.” The concept forgoes inspections at sensitive nuclear sites and of nuclear weapons or components in classified form. To implement this concept, a state first divides its nuclear program into a closed segment and an open segment. The total fissile-material inventory in the closed segment, which includes the weapon complex, is known and declared with very high accuracy. Essentially no inspections take place in the closed segment. In contrast, inspectors have access to the open segment, which includes in particular the civilian nuclear sector. The fissile-material inventory in the open segment is known with less accuracy, but uncertainties can be reduced over time using nuclear-archaeology methods. Deferred verification relies primarily on established safeguards techniques and avoids many unresolved verification challenges, such as the need for information barriers for warhead confirmation measurements. At the same time, deferred verification faces some unique challenges. Here, we explore some of these challenges and offer possible solutions; to do so, we examine possible noncompliance strategies in which a state would seek to withhold a higher-than-declared inventory.     

The effects of local elections on national military spending: A cross-country study

In this paper, we study the domestic political determinants of military spending. Our conceptual framework suggests that power distribution over local and central governments influences the government provision of national public goods, in our context, military expenditure. Drawing on a large cross-country panel, we demonstrate that having local elections will decrease a country’s military expenditure markedly, controlling for other political and economic variables. According to our preferred estimates, a country’s military expenditure is on average 20% lower if its state government officials are locally elected, which is consistent with our theoretical prediction.     

一种智能型鱼雷蓄电池快速充电方案

介绍了一种智能型鱼雷蓄电池快速充电装置的新型充电理论及其硬、软件设计原理和方法．该系统使充、放电容量得到实时控制,减少了鱼雷电池充电时的极化,提高了充电速度．     

Cover for Thor: Divine Deception Planning for Cold War Missiles

In the late 1950s, as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) replaced bombers, the development of Soviet ICBMs prompted fears of strategic vulnerability in the West. The Eisenhower administration's decision to deploy Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) on the territory of NATO allies sought to redress the perceived vulnerability until American ICBMs were ready. British deception planners considered how to enhance the threat posed by the IRBMs. An outline plan codenamed ‘Celestial’ was intended to persuade the Soviets that the otherwise vulnerable missiles could not be readily neutralised. This article explores this deception and how such planning also sought to convey accurate information alongside disinformation. It also suggests that deception planners appear to have given little heed to the potentially counterproductive consequences of such an operation.     

Warning of Terror: Explaining the Failure of Intelligence Against Terrorism

Many scholars and analysts have studied intelligence failure and surprise and developed theories to explain disasters such as the attack on Pearl Harbor. Others, especially since the 9/11 attacks, have examined the rising threat of terrorism and see it as posing a particularly difficult challenge for the intelligence community. But little work has been done to integrate the earlier literature on intelligence failure with the newer threat of terrorist attack. This article attempts such an integration, by examining the bombing of the US Marine Barracks in Beirut in 1983; it concludes that most studies of the Beirut bombing are mistaken in their assessment of the role played by intelligence in that disaster, and suggests that our understanding of intelligence failure against surprise attacks needs to be revised in the age of terrorism.     

The Naval Intelligence Underpinnings of Reagan's Maritime Strategy

Washington's so-called Maritime Strategy, which sought to apply US naval might against Soviet vulnerabilities on its maritime flanks, came to full fruition during the 1980s. The strategy, which witnessed a major buildup of US naval forces and aggressive exercising in seas proximate to the USSR, also explicitly targeted Moscow”s strategic missile submarines with the aim of pressuring the Kremlin during crises or the early phases of global war. Relying on a variety of interviews and newly declassified documents, the authors assert that the Maritime Strategy represents one of the rare instances in history when intelligence helped lead a nation to completely revise its concept of military operations.     

Encircled by enemies: Stalin's Perceptions of the capitalist world, 1918 – 1941

The article examines Stalin's intelligence on the capitalist world, including materials from military archives, diplomatic archives, and Stalin's private papers. It explores how these materials were collected, interpreted and shaped by Stalin's prejudices. It concludes that, from the end of the Civil War to the Nazi invasion, Stalin and the Soviet leadership believed that the Soviet Union was under a nearly constant threat of invasion from shifting coalitions of capitalist powers. No such threat existed until the late 1930s, but Stalin's perceptions have important implications for our understanding of Soviet foreign and domestic politics in the interwar period.