The effects of local elections on national military spending: A cross-country study

In this paper, we study the domestic political determinants of military spending. Our conceptual framework suggests that power distribution over local and central governments influences the government provision of national public goods, in our context, military expenditure. Drawing on a large cross-country panel, we demonstrate that having local elections will decrease a country’s military expenditure markedly, controlling for other political and economic variables. According to our preferred estimates, a country’s military expenditure is on average 20% lower if its state government officials are locally elected, which is consistent with our theoretical prediction.     

神经网络在目标属性识别中的应用研究

首先介绍了目标属性识别的方法,并对多属性决策模型(MultipleAttributeDecisionModel,MADM)目标属性识别模型进行了分析,在此基础上提出了基于神经网络的目标属性识别模型,其能有效地解决目标属性识别问题。     

情报、射击指挥系统通用自动检测系统研究

维修保障能力的高低对情报、射击指挥系统的作战效能和快速反应能力影响很大 ,研制通用自动检测系统可以有效地提高其维修保障能力。在分析情报、射击指挥系统检测要求的基础上 ,介绍了典型自动检测系统的测试原理。重点介绍了基于VXI总线技术的通用自动检测系统的设计方法 ,包括其硬件组成结构和测试软件功能。总结了检测系统主要技术特点及其应用情况。     

基于可拓方法的C3I作战方案生成与评价

作战指挥决策支持系统是指挥自动化系统的重要组成部分,作战方案生成与评价是作战指挥决策支持系统的基本功能.根据作战指挥决策支持系统特点将可拓方法应用于作战方案生成与评价,并分析了其优势所在.结合空战案例运用发散树方法进行作战方案集的开拓,并利用优度评价方法进行作战方案的评价,从而得到最佳作战方案.     

【专题】登陆破障装备技术发展应用述评

登陆破障行动是联合登陆战斗中各军兵种破障力量在敌预先设置和临机设置的各种障碍物中开辟通路的行动,也是确保登陆兵突击上陆和向纵深发展进攻的前提和关键。进入21世纪,随着高新技术的不断发展,传统的破障装备和手段已经不能适应新的战场,各种新式障碍相继出现,对登陆部队的破障能力提出更高要求,破障装备体系化、破障手段精确化以及破障过程无人化成为未来破障技术的重要发展方向。本文首先简要介绍了当前世界主流的破障装备和手段,并论述了其局限性,如破障效率低、人员和弹药消耗量大以及容易形成二次障碍等,然后从破障装备体系化、破障手段精确化和破障过程无人能化三个方面对未来破障装备技术发展趋势进行了展望。     

Strategy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT

We argue that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will, in the very near future, have a profound impact on the conduct of strategy and will be disruptive of existing power balances. To do so, we review the psychological foundations of strategy and explore the ways in which AI will impact human decision-making. We then review current and evolving capabilities in ‘narrow’, modular AI that is optimised to perform in a particular environment, and explore its military potential. Lastly, we look ahead to the more distant prospect of a general AI.     

Militarisation of cooperation against mass migration – the Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC)

As a result of the migration crisis of 2015–2016, the management of mass migration and border control became militarised in Central Europe, and this process has also reshaped the dynamics of multinational defence cooperation in the region. Accordingly, while the so-called Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC) was created by Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2010 to support NATO and EU capability development projects via defence cooperation, after the migration crisis it became the major Central European forum for military cooperation against irregular mass migration. Although many defence officials in the region are not necessarily enthusiastic about this development, the Central European political environment and also practical defence considerations pushed the defence ministries of CEDC countries towards deeper cooperation on border control, as well as better coordination with ministries of interior affairs on the national and the regional levels.     

脑与认知技术发展综述

脑与认知是利用神经形态计算来模拟生物大脑处理信息的过程,被认为是探究甚至实现人工智能的最直接技术路线,而且可以为人工神经网络研究提供基础导向,因为人类和动物"先天"的结构对其技能和习性有着决定性作用。对近期脑与认知的相关研究与成果进行了综合评述,并对未来发展趋势进行了展望。综述表明,类脑仿生研究与应用改进了人工智能系统,重建复杂的大脑皮层神经网与回路是当前研究重点;脉冲神经网络被认为是目前深度神经网络的"继承者";脑机接口技术发展呈现非侵入式趋势,面向语言障碍病患实现语音合成的脑机接口技术成为近期新兴研究方向。     

The ‘bomber gap’: British intelligence and an American delusion

For most of the 1950s, manned aircraft were the prime nuclear bomb delivery method, and were therefore a vital metric for British and American intelligence when calculating the Soviet threat. Each community reached very different conclusions from the same raw intelligence, generating the ‘bomber gap’ myth in the US but not in the UK. The information available was inconclusive, so in order to understand it estimators had to rely on their assumptions, which were different. Contrasting scopes for parochial capitalisation drew their conclusions further apart. Contrary to orthodox accounts of this episode, Soviet deception did not play a central role.     

THE NPT

This article assesses the successes and failures of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since its creation in 1968 by developing and applying a set of “metrics” to each of the NPT's substantive articles as well as to its withdrawal provisions. In light of this analysis, the article also puts forward some specific proposals for strengthening the NPT and its implementation, with a view to the debate and decisions at the upcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference. A concluding section turns explicitly to the 2010 NPT Review Conference and proposes pursuit of agreement on three NPT Action Plans: one for nonproliferation, one for peaceful uses, and one for nuclear disarmament. Combining vision and practicable steps, these Action Plans would set out a roadmap for action between the 2010 and the 2015 NPT Review Conferences. They could provide a foundation for substantive exchanges—in this case, on progress toward their implementation—during the preparations for the 2015 conference.