ASSESSING RUSSIAN ATTITUDES TOWARD PHASED,DEEP NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS

As the United States and Russia contemplate the next stage of nuclear arms reductions beyond the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, another issue enters the agenda—that of the impact of possible deep reductions on the shape of the global nuclear balance. As the gap between the US/Russian arsenals and the arsenals of “second-tier” nuclear weapon states narrows, the familiar shape of the global balance, which remains, to a large extent, bipolar, is likely to change. The article explores the Russian approach to the relationship between further US-Russian reductions and the prospect of “nuclear multipolarity,” and assesses the relative weight of this issue in Russian arms control policy as well as the views on the two specific regional balances—the one in Europe (including UK and French nuclear weapons) and in Asia (the possible dynamic of the Russian-Chinese nuclear balance).     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

台风浪过程对空中飞行器生存能力的影响分析

为了分析台风浪对飞行器生存能力的影响,以CCMP风场驱动WW3海浪模式,对发生在2008年9月的台风"黑格比"所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,并就台风浪对导弹等飞行器击水概率的影响进行计算分析。研究发现:以CCMP风场作为WW3模式的驱动场,对发生在中国海的台风浪进行数值模拟是可行的,模拟的海浪数据接近海浪浮标观测数据;击水概率大值区主要分布于台风的大浪区,当飞行器的飞行高度为12m时,击水概率基本在15%以上,近台风中心更是高达26%～30%,台风大浪区的外围的击水概率则基本都在10%以下;当导弹飞行高度为15m时,击水概率基本只有12m时的一半;无论飞行高度为12m还是15m,击水概率的大值区均集中分布于该台风行进方向的右半圆。击水概率的高值中心并不位于台风中心,这应该是由于台风中心存在一低风速的台风眼造成的。该研究为提高掠海飞行器的生存能力提供参考。     

Civil–Military Relations in India: The China Crisis and After

The pattern of civil–military interaction in India is informed by the notion that civilians should refrain from involvement in operational matters. The emergence of this trend can be traced back to the defeat against China in 1962. In its aftermath, the belief that the debacle occurred because of civilian interference took hold. Thereafter, politicians restricted themselves to giving overall directives, leaving operational matters to the military. The Indian ‘victory’ in the subsequent war with Pakistan was seen as vindicating this arrangement. This essay argues that the conventional reading of the China crisis is at best misleading and at worst erroneous. Further, it contends that the subsequent war with Pakistan actually underscores the problems of civilian non-involvement in operational issues. The historical narrative underpinning the norm of civilian abstention is at the very least dubious.     

Stranglehold: The Context,Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China

The mounting challenge posed by China's military modernization has highlighted the need for the United States to analyze its ability to execute a naval blockade. A blockade strategy is viable, but it would be limited to a narrow context: the United States would have to be engaged in a protracted conflict over vital interests, and it would need the support of key regional powers. The United States would also need to implement a mix between a close and distant blockade in order to avoid imperiling the conflict's strategic context. If enacted, a blockade could exact a ruinous cost on the Chinese economy and state.     

China’s ‘Three Warfares’: Origins,Applications, and Organizations

Entering the twenty-first century, China has demonstrated an assertive foreign policy, not only in employing various types of economic and military leverage but also in conducting the Three Warfares (三战) – psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare. This article attempts to identify the motives and methods of China’s Three Warfares by analyzing its history, logic, and agents. Based on this analysis, the author also presents the position of the Three Warfares in China’s foreign policy and the warfares’ impact on the international security environment involving other major powers and China’s neighbors.     

鲁迅与“华北五省自治运动”

日本帝国主义为了进一步扩大对中国的侵略,变华北为第二个伪满洲国,保障其在东北四省的权利,于1935年开始策划＂华北五省自治运动＂。但迫于英美等帝国主义国家的压力和中国国内的抗日怒潮,这一目的没能完全实现,最终成立了＂冀察政务委员会＂,以达到控制华北的目的。对日本帝国主义的这种侵略行为,国民党政府的对日政策有所改变,但仍未实施彻底的抗日政策。鲁迅对国民党的这种屈服、妥协行为进行揭露和批判,并对国民党政府在国内的一系列黑暗统治进行抨击,同时鲁迅也表达了自己对中国黑暗现状的担忧和对中国前途终将光明的信念。     

中国共产党90年的奋皇功绩与经验启示

中国共产党90年,以艰苦卓绝的奋斗取得了丰功伟绩,积累了深刻宝贵的基本经验和启示：不负重托,不辱使命;保持先进性;把马克思列宁主义基本原理与中国具体实际情况和时代基本特征相结合;一切为了和紧紧依靠人民群众;加强和改进自身建设。     

革命根据地高等教育对新中国高等教育体系建立的影响

本文从史料入手,分析了革命根据地高等教育对新中国高等教育体系构建的影响,其影响主要表现在以下四个方面:(1)革命根据地的教育方针对新中国高等教育方针确定的影响;(2)革命根据地高等教育管理模式对新中国高等教育管理模式确定的影响;(3)革命根据地高等学校类型(党校、军事院校、国民普通大学)对新中国高等学校类型的构建的影响;(4)革命根据地高等学校的政治思想课程对新中国高等学校课程体系设置的影响。     

新时期加强机关党建工作的几点思考

在新形势下,随着机关改革的不断深入,如何抓好机关党的建设,对提高党的执政能力有重要意义。本文提出了机关在党的建设工作中存在的五个主要问题,分析造成问题的原因,并提出抓学习、讲廉洁、出典型、抓队伍建设等工作重点。