“萨德”入韩引发的地缘政治危机及中国的对策

2016年年初以来,朝鲜先后进行了第四次、第五次核试验,在此背景下,韩国国防部宣布,韩美同意在韩国部署末段高空区域防御系统——"萨德"导弹防御系统,朝鲜半岛地区风云再起。美韩此举使原本不安的东北亚局势更加紧张,诱发并恶化着东北亚地区大国家间潜存的"安全困境"。韩国决定部署"萨德"不仅严重僵化了中韩的国际关系,使得原本对峙局面下的朝韩两国局势更加紧张,更破坏了东北亚军事战略均衡,地区"新冷战"格局逐步形成。     

中国机器人产业持续发展的制约因素及措施

中国机器人企业由于研发力量薄弱,缺乏核心技术,高端人才匮乏,产品成本高昂,加之没有政策引领,没能形成规模化应用,所占市场份额不足10%。文章探讨如何破解中国机器人产业现存问题并寻求针对性解决措施。     

Expansion of Chinese maritime power in the Indian Ocean: implications for India

This paper examines the ongoing expansion of China’s maritime power in the Indian Ocean region and analyses its potential impact on the extant balance of Sino-Indian maritime power in the region. It posits that the expanding Chinese maritime power in the Indian Ocean could seriously challenge India’s geostrategic advantage in the near future and that India can no longer take for granted its strategic location at the centre of the Indian Ocean nor the strength of its historical ties with the various regional states. It further argues that the current Indian maritime strategy for the Indian Ocean region, to be the “net security provider” for the entire region, is unsustainable and thus needs to be reviewed and rebuilt leveraging the geographic advantage enjoyed by India over China in the Indian Ocean.     

Two kinds of catastrophe: nuclear escalation and protracted war in Asia

China’s expanding strength and ambition may foreshadow a violent conflict with the United States. I describe two scenarios about how such a conflict would unfold. The article begins by examining the prospects for nuclear escalation, drawing on theories about politics, psychology, and inadvertent escalation. It then examines the prospects for protracted conventional war, a scenario that has received far less attention. I present a new theory of protraction based on technology, geography, and domestic politics. After assessing the logic of both scenarios against a hypothetical US–China conflict, I discuss which is more likely. The conclusion points to a sobering trade-off: efforts to avoid nuclear catastrophe increase the chance of a long and grueling fight.     

中国当代社会转型探析

中国当代的社会转型 ,决不是笼统地从“传统社会”转向“现代社会” ,而是从初级阶段的社会主义向发达社会主义的转型。这样定位 ,有着充分的理论根据 ,其中最重要的就是我国在转型目标和价值取向、转型道路、途径和方法以及转型所处时代背景和国际环境等方面 ,都有自己的特殊性。只有这样认识我国的社会转型 ,才能与“西化”划清界限     

西部全面小康视野下的道德建设

在全面建设小康社会的进程中,西部的小康至关重要。加强道德建设对于推进西部地区全面建设小康社会而言,显得尤为迫切。既体现了西部小康社会建设的题中应有之义,又为其提供了精神动力和智力支持。     

弘扬伟大建党精神奋进世界一流征程

以“坚持真理、坚守理想,践行初心、担当使命,不怕牺牲、英勇斗争,对党忠诚、不负人民”为内涵的伟大建党精神,是中国共产党的精神之源。这一精神内涵丰富、意境深远,具有鲜明的理论特征和时代价值,不仅指导了过去一百年中国共产党人带领全中国人民推进革命、建设、改革的伟大实践,更是对中华民族实现第二个百年奋斗目标具有深远的指导意义。只有深刻认识和把握伟大建党精神的科学内涵,才能战胜前进道路上的一切艰难险阻,继续谦虚谨慎、戒骄戒躁,继续艰苦奋斗、锐意进取,锲而不舍把建设世界一流军队的伟大事业推向新征程。     

Asia-Pacific Demand for Military Expenditure: Spatial Panel and SUR Estimates

This article investigates the demand for military expenditure for a sample of key Asia-Pacific countries. Spatial panel demand estimates are presented for three joined spatial units using a fixed-coefficient spatial lag model based on a two-step efficient GMM estimator. Spatial autoregression estimates are next presented for 1991–2015, founded on alternative kinds of country connectivities, such as contiguity, inverse distance, discrete distance, and power-projection considerations. Finally, 11 select countries’ demands for defense equations are estimated using seemingly unrelated regressions. From alternative perspectives, these estimated models indicate how Asia-Pacific countries respond to the defense spending of other countries. In the spatial runs, free riding is prevalent despite the growing military might of China, which apparently is not generally viewed as a threat. For the sample period, the projection of Chinese or American power is a relevant spatial factor. The main threat is reflected in non-U.S. allies’ reaction to U.S. allies’ defense spending during 1991–2015 and to Chinese defense spending after 2002.     

It Takes Two to Tango: Autocratic underbalancing,regime legitimacy and China’s responses to India’s rise

What factors do autocracies evaluate when responding to perceived threats and why might they fail to balance appropriately? I posit that autocratic leaders may choose greater exposure to an external threat if, by doing so, it preserves regime legitimacy. Specifically, the desire to promote a positive image to one’s domestic public creates incentives to publicly downplay a rival’s military progress, which then affects the state’s ability to mobilize resources to respond to the growing threat. I test this theory in the case of China’s response to India’s military rise. This research contributes to balancing theory and empirical work on East Asian security.     

Military expenditure and economic development in China: an empirical inquiry

Increases in military spending have a big impact on the socioeconomic conditions in any country. However, there is no consensus as to whether the rising military expenditure is beneficial or detrimental to economic growth. The present study chose China as a case study to empirically examine a complex relationship between military expenditure and economic development. The findings from the Johansen cointegration test indicated that there existed a long-run relationship between China’s military spending and economic growth. Furthermore, the Granger causality test detected a unidirectional causality from economic development to military expenditure. These results were further confirmed by the findings from the impulse response function. This means that China represents an example of a developing economy where the size of military expenditure expands in the process of economic transformation.