ASSESSING RUSSIAN ATTITUDES TOWARD PHASED,DEEP NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS

As the United States and Russia contemplate the next stage of nuclear arms reductions beyond the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, another issue enters the agenda—that of the impact of possible deep reductions on the shape of the global nuclear balance. As the gap between the US/Russian arsenals and the arsenals of “second-tier” nuclear weapon states narrows, the familiar shape of the global balance, which remains, to a large extent, bipolar, is likely to change. The article explores the Russian approach to the relationship between further US-Russian reductions and the prospect of “nuclear multipolarity,” and assesses the relative weight of this issue in Russian arms control policy as well as the views on the two specific regional balances—the one in Europe (including UK and French nuclear weapons) and in Asia (the possible dynamic of the Russian-Chinese nuclear balance).     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

鲁迅与“华北五省自治运动”

日本帝国主义为了进一步扩大对中国的侵略,变华北为第二个伪满洲国,保障其在东北四省的权利,于1935年开始策划＂华北五省自治运动＂。但迫于英美等帝国主义国家的压力和中国国内的抗日怒潮,这一目的没能完全实现,最终成立了＂冀察政务委员会＂,以达到控制华北的目的。对日本帝国主义的这种侵略行为,国民党政府的对日政策有所改变,但仍未实施彻底的抗日政策。鲁迅对国民党的这种屈服、妥协行为进行揭露和批判,并对国民党政府在国内的一系列黑暗统治进行抨击,同时鲁迅也表达了自己对中国黑暗现状的担忧和对中国前途终将光明的信念。     

中国维和警察学科理论体系基本框架构想

中国维和警察参与联合国维和行动已成为我国公安工作的重要内容,把中国维和警察理论作为中国警学的新兴学科,研究由联合国维和行动基本理论、中国维和警察特色理论、中国维和警察基础理论、中国维和警察专业理论、中国维和警察应用理论构建的中国维和警察学科理论体系基本框架,对我国维和警察工作的发展具有重要的促进作用。     

革命根据地高等教育对新中国高等教育体系建立的影响

本文从史料入手,分析了革命根据地高等教育对新中国高等教育体系构建的影响,其影响主要表现在以下四个方面:(1)革命根据地的教育方针对新中国高等教育方针确定的影响;(2)革命根据地高等教育管理模式对新中国高等教育管理模式确定的影响;(3)革命根据地高等学校类型(党校、军事院校、国民普通大学)对新中国高等学校类型的构建的影响;(4)革命根据地高等学校的政治思想课程对新中国高等学校课程体系设置的影响。     

中国共产党90年的奋皇功绩与经验启示

中国共产党90年,以艰苦卓绝的奋斗取得了丰功伟绩,积累了深刻宝贵的基本经验和启示：不负重托,不辱使命;保持先进性;把马克思列宁主义基本原理与中国具体实际情况和时代基本特征相结合;一切为了和紧紧依靠人民群众;加强和改进自身建设。     

Brothers in arms,yet again? Twenty-first century Sino-Russian strategic collaboration in the realm of defence and security

2014–2015 were years of turmoil for strategic relations, with Sino-Russian relations emerging as a particularly interesting set of ties to observe. This article asks whether recurrent Sino-Russian exhortations of friendship are mirrored by their strategic alignment in the defence and security realm, half a century after the end of the Sino-Soviet pact during the communist era. We examine the arms trade between the two countries and with regional partners, but also the recent pattern of bilateral and multilateral military exercises, as a combined test of the security and defence relationship. We are able to show that the image of friendship that both Moscow and Beijing like to promote, while apparent at the UN Security Council and within the BRICS group, remains constrained by rivalry in high-tech segments of the arms industry and by lingering concerns about the prospects of peer interference in their shared regional vicinity.     

COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY

President Barack Obama has pledged to secure the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which was previously rejected by the U.S. Senate in 1999. This article attempts to predict the potential implications of Washington's ratification for the treaty's future by analyzing the positions and options of the eight other essential holdouts. The authors conclude that without the United States to hide behind, facing domestic and international constraints, and lacking substantial strategic reasons to remain outside the treaty, most holdouts will move toward ratification. Nonetheless, the process is likely to be time consuming, and several of the key actors remain unpredictable.     

Boost-glide Weapons and US-China Strategic Stability

ABSTRACT

The United States and China are testing boost-glide weapons, long-range strike systems capable of flying at Mach 5 or faster through the upper atmosphere. For the United States, these systems would provide a conventional prompt global strike capability, which, together with US ballistic missile defense programs, Chinese experts regard as a threat to China's ability to conduct nuclear retaliation. This perception is encouraging the Chinese military to modify its nuclear posture in ways that tend to create greater risks for both sides. If China's own boost-glide systems are meant to carry nuclear payloads only, their deployment would not fundamentally alter the current situation between the two states. However, if they were conventionally armed or dual-purpose, or if the United States could not determine the payloads they carried, the deployment of Chinese boost-glide systems could compound problems of strategic stability created by the introduction of ballistic missile defense, antisatellite, and antiship ballistic missile capabilities. If the technical hurdles can be overcome, it may be difficult for the two sides to refrain from these deployments in the absence of strong mutual trust or an established arms-control relationship. New confidence-building measures and expanded mutual transparency are warranted to avoid creating new dangers.     

朝核问题对中国边境安全的影响

朝核问题一直是困扰东北亚地区安全的核心问题,自20世纪90年代第一次朝核危机至今．朝核问题不但没有得到妥善解决,反而更加复杂。2006年10月9日,朝鲜宣布成功进行了地下核试验,朝鲜半岛再一次成为全球关注的焦点。在前人研究的基础上,就朝核问题产生的背景,朝核问题对中国边境地区经济、地区稳定以及生态环境等方面产生的影响进行分析和探讨。